Six weeks ago, Donald Trump won the Indiana primary in such a decisive fashion, the last two Republican challengers, John Kasich and Ted Cruz, suspended their campaigns, effectively ending the GOP election. At that moment, the door seemed open for Trump to begin pivoting his views towards the center, unify GOP support, and prepare for a general election showdown with a Hillary Clinton that was still trying to put away a surprising challenge from Bernie Sanders. In fact, during the last six weeks, Trump actually led Clinton in a general election match-up in a smattering of polls. And it appeared to be a wise move by Trump to visit California for several days in late May to play havoc causer in the Democratic Primary, when a Sanders win would have sent Clinton limping towards Philadelphia and the Democratic National Convention. It might have even been a little devilishly genius for Trump to appear in CA, and stir up protests by Latinos against his campaign visits in an attempt to solidify support in battleground states in November.
But instead of showing the ability to pivot, Trump played to his base and attacked many of his fellow GOP rivals, shaming them for not endorsing Trump immediately. Paul Ryan faced his wrath for a while before the Speaker of the House meekly endorsed him in late May. Susan Martinez and Nikki Haley, both diverse women who are the future of the GOP, came under attack. Trump also couldn't resist going after the Bush family and Mitt Romney, calling them losers and demanding their support of Trump.
The turning point, however, may have been Trump's pettiness in a legal matter now going through the courts concerning one of his ventures, Trump University. In mid-May, U.S. District Court Judge Gonzalo Curiel, ruled that Trump University case in California should begin in late November, which was a defeat for prosecuting lawyers who wanted to have the case begin this summer. While the Trump legal team wanted the case to begin next year, it was a victory of sorts for Trump who dodged a trial until after the election. Curiel also ruled the public could see documents related to the case. In response, Trump immediately began attacking the judge and accused him of being Mexican, even though Judge Curiel had been born in Indiana. When confronted with the facts of Judge Curiel's birthplace, Trump doubled down on his attacks. GOP leaders were horrified and Trump was condemned for being a racist on all sides. By the time Trump tried to tell the GOP to "get over it", it was far too late.
Trump's attacks on Judge Curiel also put Latino protests in CA in a more sympathetic light. I suspect Latino support helped carry Hillary Clinton to surprisingly huge victory in the California primary last Tuesday, as well as a victory in New Mexico. Bernie Sanders' last chance for momentum heading into a possible contested convention in Philadelphia was effectively over. Within 48 hours after the CA primary, most major Democratic leaders unified around Clinton, and began an all-out attack on Trump. Led by Mass. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Vice-President Joe Biden, the Dems turned Trump's attacks on Judge Curiel into a rallying cry for Democrats. While Sanders has yet to endorse Clinton, it would appear at least Bernie will pledge support for Clinton sometime in the coming days.
All major polls taken within the last 7 days now show Clinton with a small to sizable lead over Trump... even polls that once had Trump in the lead. But look closer, and you will see Trump is losing or tied in states that he must win to have even a chance to win in November. GOP strongholds like Utah and Kansas show the possibility of going to the Democrats on election day. (Clinton leads Trump by 7 in the latest Sunflower State poll, while Utah shows a tied race in a state that "loser Mitt Romney" won by 48% in 2012). Trump is trying to ignore such abysmal showing in reliable GOP states by stating he could make things competitive in PA, MD, NJ, and CA. Pennsylvania, maybe. But #1 Trump water boy, Chris Christie is very unpopular in the Garden State, there's a huge Latino voting base in CA already angry with Trump, and Maryland... Well, I live in the Old Line State, and the only chance Donald Trump has of winning it is if a nuclear bomb destroyed the entire I-95 corridor between D.C and Baltimore. He's not thinking realistically.
The last straw may be the Orlando massacre over the weekend. Trump seemed to congratulate himself for predicting such an ISIS-inspired massacre might happen, then attacked Obama and Clinton for being too soft and called once again for a Muslim immigration ban. But in the process, he also took time to revoke the press credentials for the only newspaper ever powerful enough to bring down a sitting President... the Washington Post (Watergate/Nixon). If Trump could do something that would potentially show disdain for the First Amendment of the US Constitution, what's to say he wouldn't challenge other aspects of the Constitution... Perhaps even the right to bear arms? In the past, he has called for a ban on certain guns.
Of course, things could change, and events could happen that would swing support back to Trump. And the full impact of the Orlando has yet to be felt in the polls. But it appears Trump has lost his best chance to win the Presidency and is now forced to wage the same ground game President Bush (43), John McCain, and Mitt Romney had to run to try and win the top office in the land... a toss-up scenario at best. At worst, Trump may be abandoned by the rest of the GOP leadership by the time the first General Election Presidential Debate reaches Wright State University in Dayton, OH this fall.
Funny how things can change in six weeks.
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