Saturday, July 30, 2016

Trump’s Real Problem with the 2016 General Election Debates…

There are so many controversies that GOP Presidential Nominee Donald Trump (and yes, even now I am still in disbelief that he is the GOP Nominee) has stirred up since clinching the nomination.  I could go into the Conventions recently, where the DNC’s theme was “Love trumps hate”, while the RNC’s theme apparently was “Love Trump’s Hate”.  I could talk about his ever expanding list of people to criticize.  I could talk about his challenges to win enough electoral votes to become President.  I could even talk about his unwillingness to cede the spotlight, even when bigger events are going on. But I’m going to focus on the Presidential debates, and Trump apparent disdain for a schedule that was set a year ahead of the first debate.

Trump recently tweeted that it appeared Hillary Clinton was trying to once again “fix the debate” schedule to increase Hillary’s chances of winning in November:

“As usual, Hillary & the Dems are trying to rig so 2 are up against major NFL games. Same as last time w/ Bernie. Unacceptable!” (@realDonaldTrump, July 29, 2016)

Problem is, like most of his statements in this campaign, they are lies.  And I don’t need to check Politifact to confirm this…

Last September, the Commission on Presidential Debates, a nonpartisan and nonprofit commission, set the schedule for 3 Presidential debates and 1 VP debate.  The schedule at that time was as follows:

(Presidential Debate #1) Monday, September 26, 2016: Wright State University, Dayton, OH
 (VP Debate) Tuesday, October 4, 2016: Longwood University, Farmville, VA
(Presidential Debate #2) Sunday, October 9, 2016: Washington University, St. Louis, MO
(Presidential Debate #3) Wednesday, October 19, 2016: University of Nevada-Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV

Two weeks ago, the President of Wright State announced the University was backing out of the first debate.  Hofstra University, on Long Island in New York, is now the site of the first Presidential debate on September 26th.

But don’t tell Trump the Debates were set by a nonpartisan group.  It would destroy his conspiracy theories he will use to attempt to skip out of any/all of the debates. Yeah, I know, he CLAIMS he is for three debates, but the truth is that he only wants the debates on his terms (and I’ll bet one of those terms is to have Candy Crowley removed from any debate panels/hosting duties).

But take a closer look:  two of the debates actually happen on turf where Trump considers favorable terrain.  Debate #1 occurring in Long Island is a huge break for him, because it’s a quick helicopter/limo ride from Trump Towers in Manhattan.  And Debate #3 being in Las Vegas will be close to a Trump Hotel where he can enjoy his luxurious accommodations.

What Trump is also upset about is the fact that he has to share the spotlight at all.  In the GOP debates, he was front and center… even in the debate he skipped for a “military fundraiser”.  In the General Election, he will share time with and be off to the side opposite Hillary Clinton (and maybe both will have to share center stage and equal time with Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson).  And attention may be split between sports and the debate (For the record, don’t tell Trump, but it’s likely the 3rd Debate will go up against (at least) one MLB League Championship Series, or possibly the World Series).

As I said earlier, Trump is laying the groundwork, coming up with excuses to try and overturn the debate schedule.  I am already on record that the debate he most likely skips will be the 2nd Presidential debate, set for St. Louis on October 9th.  That debate is the Town Hall debate (the other 2 debates will be the classical opposite facing podiums, with a defined format), and with Ferguson being a suburb of St. Louis, you can be sure the parents of one Michael Brown will be invited to attend, with a central focus of that debate being on the Black Lives Matter Movement.   Trump does not want to have to face setup like that, believe me.

Trump was able to control the message during the GOP debates because of the weak format, and dealing with a number of candidates that split the focus of non-Trump rivals.  There will be no such luck that Trump will be able to control the General Election Debates in the same way.  For Trump, the chances of skipping organizing, and planning to win a debate, much less a General Election (like he was able to do in the primaries) is zero.  And he is feeling the heat now of both.

Like I said, Trump hates the General Election Debates because he will not be the sole focus, and he's trying to overturn everything to get exactly what he wants.  58 days until the first debate seems like a lifetime away with Trump in the mix... and anything is possible.

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