The Drive-By Autopsy of the 2016 Presidential Primary Season

We now know the two main participants in the General Election for President of the United States.  On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton learned from her defeat of 8 years ago at the hands of a young Illinois Senator named Barack Obama, and turned back a surprising and spirited challenger from Independent Socialist turned Democrat, Vermont Junior Senator (and I use the term “Junior” loosely) Bernie Sanders.  While on the Republican side, Democratic-leaning Independent turned GOP Populist and alleged billionaire, Donald Trump, used anger at the establishment in Washington and controversy to bully his way past 16 other challengers to become the GOP nominee.  Both main participants used contrasting styles to win.  And while both candidates emerged victorious, both Trump and Clinton enter the General Election cycle with record-high negative ratings. 

So how did we get here?  And will the General Election play out similar to the last four cycles or be different as Donald Trump has promised?

(1) THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE:  Clinton survived a scare in Iowa and a humbling early defeat in New Hampshire to Sanders, then began taking advantage of her popularity among minority voters to steamroll Bernie across the South. She also won the all the key big delegate states, with the exception of Michigan (the upset of the primaries).  Even though Bernie hung tough and picked off 22 of the 50 states, Clinton never lost control of the situation and won when it counted.  Bernie’s last attempt to seize momentum heading towards Philadelphia failed when Clinton scored a double-digit victory in California, thanks to Latino support.  Clinton’s pillars of African-American, Latino, LGBT, and voters over 45 were stronger than Bernie’s pillars of under 45 voters, as well as crossover voters.  It is expected Bernie will concede, probably after the DC primary next week.  Clinton won the popular vote by about 3.5 million votes (est.) and the pledged delegate count by about 400.  At this point, Clinton needs about 30% of the superdelegates to clinch, and she already has locked up about two-thirds of those, so despite Bernie’s pronouncements that he wants to take the fight to Philadelphia, that threat would be counterproductive.

(2) THE REPUBLICAN SIDE:  Donald Trump used the power of the media to race past traditional candidates like Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, and others, outlasted rising stars like Marco Rubio and Ben Carson, and finally wore down Ted Cruz and John Kasich to all but wrap up the nomination in early May.  Trump’s controversial statements about building a wall across the southern border and banning Muslims from entering the US played well to the GOP audience.  His unorthodox style confounded pundits who believed his politically incorrect style combined with his lack of policy specifics would ultimately be fatal blows, but Trump seemed to get stronger as controversy swirled more around him.  He now has the establishment GOP bending to his will, save a few outliers here and there.

Despite the dynamics and promises that this cycle will change the electoral college map one way or the other, it appears that, just like the last four election cycles, both candidates will start with over 3/4ths of the states and electoral votes already decided (sorry, Donald, after what happened in California yesterday, your boasts of winning the Golden State will not be backed up).  In the electoral college map site, 270 to win, Hillary Clinton appears to be up 217 to 191 on Donald Trump in projected electoral votes, with about 130 electoral votes in the toss-up range.  That is the most optimistic estimate for the GOP nominee, however, as other polls suggest Clinton has the edge in 253 electoral votes to 190 for Trump, with 95 electoral votes in the toss-up range.  Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted the 2012 Election Winning margin for President Obama has Hillary as a strong favorite.  Most predict Trump will have to win the Rust Belt Battleground States while turning back Clinton attempts to win in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona if Trump has any chance to be the 45th President of the United States. 

Of course, things could happen to change the dynamics, and Trump’s willingness to cause controversy while stirring things up is the ultimate X-factor. Trump could peel off enough Sanders’ supporters to win a close race in November, but he could just as easily lose in a blowout, and, in the process, cost the GOP control of the Senate and (while a longshot) maybe even the House.  We will know by the end of August which way the election is heading.

So despite the negatives about each candidate, here we are.  The next five months are likely to be even uglier than the last five months.  I fear we’ll all need a vacation from politics on November 9th.