Trump’s Real Problem with the 2016 General Election Debates…

There are so many controversies that GOP Presidential Nominee Donald Trump (and yes, even now I am still in disbelief that he is the GOP Nominee) has stirred up since clinching the nomination.  I could go into the Conventions recently, where the DNC’s theme was “Love trumps hate”, while the RNC’s theme apparently was “Love Trump’s Hate”.  I could talk about his ever expanding list of people to criticize.  I could talk about his challenges to win enough electoral votes to become President.  I could even talk about his unwillingness to cede the spotlight, even when bigger events are going on. But I’m going to focus on the Presidential debates, and Trump apparent disdain for a schedule that was set a year ahead of the first debate.

Trump recently tweeted that it appeared Hillary Clinton was trying to once again “fix the debate” schedule to increase Hillary’s chances of winning in November:

“As usual, Hillary & the Dems are trying to rig so 2 are up against major NFL games. Same as last time w/ Bernie. Unacceptable!” (@realDonaldTrump, July 29, 2016)

Problem is, like most of his statements in this campaign, they are lies.  And I don’t need to check Politifact to confirm this…

Last September, the Commission on Presidential Debates, a nonpartisan and nonprofit commission, set the schedule for 3 Presidential debates and 1 VP debate.  The schedule at that time was as follows:

(Presidential Debate #1) Monday, September 26, 2016: Wright State University, Dayton, OH
 (VP Debate) Tuesday, October 4, 2016: Longwood University, Farmville, VA
(Presidential Debate #2) Sunday, October 9, 2016: Washington University, St. Louis, MO
(Presidential Debate #3) Wednesday, October 19, 2016: University of Nevada-Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV

Two weeks ago, the President of Wright State announced the University was backing out of the first debate.  Hofstra University, on Long Island in New York, is now the site of the first Presidential debate on September 26th.

But don’t tell Trump the Debates were set by a nonpartisan group.  It would destroy his conspiracy theories he will use to attempt to skip out of any/all of the debates. Yeah, I know, he CLAIMS he is for three debates, but the truth is that he only wants the debates on his terms (and I’ll bet one of those terms is to have Candy Crowley removed from any debate panels/hosting duties).

But take a closer look:  two of the debates actually happen on turf where Trump considers favorable terrain.  Debate #1 occurring in Long Island is a huge break for him, because it’s a quick helicopter/limo ride from Trump Towers in Manhattan.  And Debate #3 being in Las Vegas will be close to a Trump Hotel where he can enjoy his luxurious accommodations.

What Trump is also upset about is the fact that he has to share the spotlight at all.  In the GOP debates, he was front and center… even in the debate he skipped for a “military fundraiser”.  In the General Election, he will share time with and be off to the side opposite Hillary Clinton (and maybe both will have to share center stage and equal time with Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson).  And attention may be split between sports and the debate (For the record, don’t tell Trump, but it’s likely the 3rd Debate will go up against (at least) one MLB League Championship Series, or possibly the World Series).

As I said earlier, Trump is laying the groundwork, coming up with excuses to try and overturn the debate schedule.  I am already on record that the debate he most likely skips will be the 2nd Presidential debate, set for St. Louis on October 9th.  That debate is the Town Hall debate (the other 2 debates will be the classical opposite facing podiums, with a defined format), and with Ferguson being a suburb of St. Louis, you can be sure the parents of one Michael Brown will be invited to attend, with a central focus of that debate being on the Black Lives Matter Movement.   Trump does not want to have to face setup like that, believe me.

Trump was able to control the message during the GOP debates because of the weak format, and dealing with a number of candidates that split the focus of non-Trump rivals.  There will be no such luck that Trump will be able to control the General Election Debates in the same way.  For Trump, the chances of skipping organizing, and planning to win a debate, much less a General Election (like he was able to do in the primaries) is zero.  And he is feeling the heat now of both.

Like I said, Trump hates the General Election Debates because he will not be the sole focus, and he's trying to overturn everything to get exactly what he wants.  58 days until the first debate seems like a lifetime away with Trump in the mix... and anything is possible.

The six weeks that (potentially) cost Donald Trump the 2016 Presidential Election...

Six weeks ago, Donald Trump won the Indiana primary in such a decisive fashion, the last two Republican challengers, John Kasich and Ted Cruz, suspended their campaigns, effectively ending the GOP election.  At that moment, the door seemed open for Trump to begin pivoting his views towards the center, unify GOP support, and prepare for a general election showdown with a Hillary Clinton that was still trying to put away a surprising challenge from Bernie Sanders. In fact, during the last six weeks, Trump actually led Clinton in a general election match-up in a smattering of polls.  And it appeared to be a wise move by Trump to visit California for several days in late May to play havoc causer in the Democratic Primary, when a Sanders win would have sent Clinton limping towards Philadelphia and the Democratic National Convention.  It might have even been a little devilishly genius for Trump to appear in CA, and stir up protests by Latinos against his campaign visits in an attempt to solidify support in battleground states in November.

But instead of showing the ability to pivot, Trump played to his base and attacked many of his fellow GOP rivals, shaming them for not endorsing Trump immediately.  Paul Ryan faced his wrath for a while before the Speaker of the House meekly endorsed him in late May.  Susan Martinez and Nikki Haley, both diverse women who are the future of the GOP, came under attack.  Trump also couldn't resist going after the Bush family and Mitt Romney, calling them losers and demanding their support of Trump.

The turning point, however, may have been Trump's pettiness in a legal matter now going through the courts concerning one of his ventures, Trump University.  In mid-May, U.S. District Court Judge Gonzalo Curiel, ruled that Trump University case in California should begin in late November, which was a defeat for prosecuting lawyers who wanted to have the case begin this summer.  While the Trump legal team wanted the case to begin next year, it was a victory of sorts for Trump who dodged a trial until after the election. Curiel also ruled the public could see documents related to the case. In response, Trump immediately began attacking the judge and accused him of being Mexican, even though Judge Curiel had been born in Indiana.  When confronted with the facts of Judge Curiel's birthplace, Trump doubled down on his attacks.  GOP leaders were horrified and Trump was condemned for being a racist on all sides.  By the time Trump tried to tell the GOP to "get over it", it was far too late. 

Trump's attacks on Judge Curiel also put Latino protests in CA in a more sympathetic light.  I suspect Latino support helped carry Hillary Clinton to surprisingly huge victory in the California primary last Tuesday, as well as a victory in New Mexico.  Bernie Sanders' last chance for momentum heading into a possible contested convention in Philadelphia was effectively over.  Within 48 hours after the CA primary, most major Democratic leaders unified around Clinton, and began an all-out attack on Trump.  Led by Mass. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Vice-President Joe Biden, the Dems turned Trump's attacks on Judge Curiel into a rallying cry for Democrats.  While Sanders has yet to endorse Clinton, it would appear at least Bernie will pledge support for Clinton sometime in the coming days.

All major polls taken within the last 7 days now show Clinton with a small to sizable lead over Trump... even polls that once had Trump in the lead.  But look closer, and you will see Trump is losing or tied in states that he must win to have even a chance to win in November.  GOP strongholds like Utah and Kansas show the possibility of going to the Democrats on election day.  (Clinton leads Trump by 7 in the latest Sunflower State poll, while Utah shows a tied race in a state that "loser Mitt Romney" won by 48% in 2012).  Trump is trying to ignore such abysmal showing in reliable GOP states by stating he could make things competitive in PA, MD, NJ, and CA.  Pennsylvania, maybe.  But #1 Trump water boy, Chris Christie is very unpopular in the Garden State, there's a huge Latino voting base in CA already angry with Trump, and Maryland... Well, I live in the Old Line State, and the only chance Donald Trump has of winning it is if a nuclear bomb destroyed the entire I-95 corridor between D.C and Baltimore.  He's not thinking realistically.

The last straw may be the Orlando massacre over the weekend.  Trump seemed to congratulate himself for predicting such an ISIS-inspired massacre might happen, then attacked Obama and Clinton for being too soft and called once again for a Muslim immigration ban.  But in the process, he also took time to revoke the press credentials for the only newspaper ever powerful enough to bring down a sitting President... the Washington Post (Watergate/Nixon).  If Trump could do something that would potentially show disdain for the First Amendment of the US Constitution, what's to say he wouldn't challenge other aspects of the Constitution... Perhaps even the right to bear arms?  In the past, he has called for a ban on certain guns.

Of course, things could change, and events could happen that would swing support back to Trump.  And the full impact of the Orlando has yet to be felt in the polls.  But it appears Trump has lost his best chance to win the Presidency and is now forced to wage the same ground game President Bush (43), John McCain, and Mitt Romney had to run to try and win the top office in the land... a toss-up scenario at best.  At worst, Trump may be abandoned by the rest of the GOP leadership by the time the first General Election Presidential Debate reaches Wright State University in Dayton, OH this fall.

Funny how things can change in six weeks.

The Drive-By Autopsy of the 2016 Presidential Primary Season

We now know the two main participants in the General Election for President of the United States.  On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton learned from her defeat of 8 years ago at the hands of a young Illinois Senator named Barack Obama, and turned back a surprising and spirited challenger from Independent Socialist turned Democrat, Vermont Junior Senator (and I use the term “Junior” loosely) Bernie Sanders.  While on the Republican side, Democratic-leaning Independent turned GOP Populist and alleged billionaire, Donald Trump, used anger at the establishment in Washington and controversy to bully his way past 16 other challengers to become the GOP nominee.  Both main participants used contrasting styles to win.  And while both candidates emerged victorious, both Trump and Clinton enter the General Election cycle with record-high negative ratings. 

So how did we get here?  And will the General Election play out similar to the last four cycles or be different as Donald Trump has promised?

(1) THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE:  Clinton survived a scare in Iowa and a humbling early defeat in New Hampshire to Sanders, then began taking advantage of her popularity among minority voters to steamroll Bernie across the South. She also won the all the key big delegate states, with the exception of Michigan (the upset of the primaries).  Even though Bernie hung tough and picked off 22 of the 50 states, Clinton never lost control of the situation and won when it counted.  Bernie’s last attempt to seize momentum heading towards Philadelphia failed when Clinton scored a double-digit victory in California, thanks to Latino support.  Clinton’s pillars of African-American, Latino, LGBT, and voters over 45 were stronger than Bernie’s pillars of under 45 voters, as well as crossover voters.  It is expected Bernie will concede, probably after the DC primary next week.  Clinton won the popular vote by about 3.5 million votes (est.) and the pledged delegate count by about 400.  At this point, Clinton needs about 30% of the superdelegates to clinch, and she already has locked up about two-thirds of those, so despite Bernie’s pronouncements that he wants to take the fight to Philadelphia, that threat would be counterproductive.

(2) THE REPUBLICAN SIDE:  Donald Trump used the power of the media to race past traditional candidates like Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, and others, outlasted rising stars like Marco Rubio and Ben Carson, and finally wore down Ted Cruz and John Kasich to all but wrap up the nomination in early May.  Trump’s controversial statements about building a wall across the southern border and banning Muslims from entering the US played well to the GOP audience.  His unorthodox style confounded pundits who believed his politically incorrect style combined with his lack of policy specifics would ultimately be fatal blows, but Trump seemed to get stronger as controversy swirled more around him.  He now has the establishment GOP bending to his will, save a few outliers here and there.

Despite the dynamics and promises that this cycle will change the electoral college map one way or the other, it appears that, just like the last four election cycles, both candidates will start with over 3/4ths of the states and electoral votes already decided (sorry, Donald, after what happened in California yesterday, your boasts of winning the Golden State will not be backed up).  In the electoral college map site, 270 to win, Hillary Clinton appears to be up 217 to 191 on Donald Trump in projected electoral votes, with about 130 electoral votes in the toss-up range.  That is the most optimistic estimate for the GOP nominee, however, as other polls suggest Clinton has the edge in 253 electoral votes to 190 for Trump, with 95 electoral votes in the toss-up range.  Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted the 2012 Election Winning margin for President Obama has Hillary as a strong favorite.  Most predict Trump will have to win the Rust Belt Battleground States while turning back Clinton attempts to win in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona if Trump has any chance to be the 45th President of the United States. 

Of course, things could happen to change the dynamics, and Trump’s willingness to cause controversy while stirring things up is the ultimate X-factor. Trump could peel off enough Sanders’ supporters to win a close race in November, but he could just as easily lose in a blowout, and, in the process, cost the GOP control of the Senate and (while a longshot) maybe even the House.  We will know by the end of August which way the election is heading.

So despite the negatives about each candidate, here we are.  The next five months are likely to be even uglier than the last five months.  I fear we’ll all need a vacation from politics on November 9th.

Postcard from the Edge…

Recently, I had a unique opportunity while out on the West Coast.  I had a chance to see the US/Mexico Border up close and personal.  The experience really opened my eyes to the complicated relationship we have with our southern neighbor… A relationship that could become even more complicated if a certain Presidential candidate were to become the 45th President of the United States.

While I won’t get into too many details about the time I spent along our southern edge, I will say the relationship between the two countries is not one-way.  I saw just as many people crossing into Mexico for goods and business as I saw people crossing into the US for similar reasons.  I did not interact with these travelers; merely I observed the comings and goings of daily life along this narrow line.  It is a relationship that even the most observant people cannot fully explain.

Like it or not, Mexican culture is prevalent across a huge part of the American Southwest.  It’s been that way since the 1840s , when the US and Mexico fought a war that initially started over the land claims of the newly acquired Texas territory, and ended with the US claiming what would eventually become the states of California, Nevada, Utah, most of Arizona, and portions of Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico.  It can be difficult at times to determine who is native to the area and who has migrated up from the south.  Going through Old Town San Diego was an example of this.  There was a lot of Mexican heritage seen in the area in the form of restaurants, art, music, and culture.  And it’s not just San Diego as Mexican culture is clearly evident up the California coastline.

Now, from where I was, there was a fence separating the two nations.  I do not know when that fence was built, but you could clearly see it on Interstate 5 South several miles before you reached the border. You could clearly see the city of Tijuana even before you can make the outline of the fence. But the fence is visible… a clear dividing line.

Are there issues in Mexico?  Certainly.  Rival drug gangs are committing violence along the border.  The things I heard were very shocking and sobering.  And yet, many Americans will cross gladly into places like Tijuana for fun, for adventure, for medical reasons… And some Americans have decided to settle down and live their remaining years south of the border.  Like I said, the issues between the United States and Mexico are not simple.

A ten foot high fence does not and will not stop the two-way traffic between the two nations, whether people cross into this country through legal means or non-legal ones.  Neither will a 35-foot wall (or higher wall) across the entire southern border do anything to stem the flow.  You can always find a big enough ladder, or a longer rope to get over.  You can go under the above ground obstructions by digging tunnels.  Or you can manage to sneak past the checkpoints if you have the means to do so.  To think a wall will protect your job or your life from southern non-legal incursions is simple-minded and unrealistic.  That is reality.  All building a 35-foot wall will do is strain relations between neighbors on the continent.  I’m not saying the border should be open like it is with our neighbors to the north.  However, what Trump is proposing will do little to change the flow, and may instead backfire on the US if things “go south”, if you pardon the pun.

For now, I am grateful for my time visiting our southernmost limits.  Big picture perspective helps keep me grounded and forces me to confront my own heretofore ignorant observations.  I am more knowledgeable now than I was this time last week.  That is always a good thing.

Twilight of the Icons…

Recently, I found out that "The Barber" in my hometown of Snellville had retired.  Yes, Snellville has many people that could cut hair, but there was only one true barber.  Kenneth Dalton, better known by his nickname of “Peanut”, finally took down his shingle and turned out the light on his barber pole on New Years’ Eve after cutting hair in Snellville for over 5 decades.  Getting your hair cut by Peanut was more than just a hair cut; it was a rite of passage for any male of the town.  He had been cutting hair in Snellville for nearly two decades before my family moved there; he would cut hair there for nearly another two decades after I had left.  The town grew from a small intersection on the way from Atlanta to Athens to one of the major suburbs of Atlanta.  We wish Peanut the best in his well-earned retirement.

Peanut is just another example of beloved iconic figures over the last several years, local and national, that have been around for so long that their departure often leaves a void that cannot be so easily replaced.  Dick Clark. Larry Munson. Ernie, Skip, and Pete. Pat Summerall. John Madden. Willard Scott. Chick Hearn. Johnny Most. Jack Buck. Harry Carey. Jerry Lewis. Ernie Harwell. Even Vin Scully is not immune to Father Time, as 2016 will mark his final season behind the booth calling Dodger Games. You can come up with even more names I am sure.

Many younger than me may not understand the romanticism some of these names have, especially as they look as how some of the “icons” of our past are now being exposed as less than perfect people.  They see Bill Cosby as a rapist, for example.  They see Hulk Hogan as a racist.  Jared from Subway is a child molester.  What skeletons are hiding in the closets of other larger than life figures, they wonder. They care less about the changing of the guard, thinking it’s time to kick the old guy/broad to the curb to make way for Ryan Seacrest or Miley Cyrus or someone they can identify with. 

They are critical about things like the new Star Wars movie.  It’s just a rehash of the original movie, they say.  They do not understand why old fogies like me enjoy the movie or what we see in the new movie that makes us feel good.  They do not understand why we cheered to see Han and Chewie again, or Leia or Threepio or The Falcon or you-know-who at the end. 

Point is, many of us want to see our icons one more time.  We’re willing to see Motley Crue, even at this stage of their lives one last time.  Or Sir Paul McCartney.  Or Jimmy Buffett.  We know they will not be with us forever.  We want to enjoy them, even if they can only do half of what they used to do before they move off the stage of life.

One day, maybe the younger generation will understand.  Maybe they will appreciate iconic figures who have real talents.  Maybe.  For us, however, we appreciate those who have spent many years giving us the sound bytes (and even a haircut or two) of our youth and adulthood.  The last voices from our formidable days are heading off into the sunset of life.  Let us pay homage to those icons while we still can.