Net Neutrality recently became a hot news topic when President Obama voiced support for the cause. The issue which has largely simmered in the back rooms of technical discussions has now burst onto the scene with everyone seemingly now having an opinion—and most of those opinions unaware about the ramifications about what net neutrality means.
Now don’t get me wrong. Opinions are nice—when you aren’t regurgitating 5-10 year old arguments for and against net neutrality. The issue has become extremely complicated in recent years as the internet has gone from just dealing with PCs to dealing with the IoT (or Internet of Things—basically means everything from computers to cell phones to refrigerators to TVs to Smart meters to well any personal device that can connect to the Internet). And some hard choices are going to have to be made in the near future—choices that some who support net neutrality will not like.
The next 10 years are going to be the most critical in the transformation of communication systems in our country. The problem is that we did not address the potential pitfalls of the internet within the past 20 years and the failure to do so has now put the communications networks of this country on the brink of rolling blackouts or freezes. Asking Tier I Cellular Companies to increase capacity but enforce net neutrality is going to have major consequences as more and more devices (perhaps as many as 50 billion devices worldwide within 10 years) access the Internet. And with newer generations technologies, like LTE and LTE-Advanced unable to keep up with the exponentially growing demand, it’s going to get ugly soon, unless radical changes are made. Those changes will be felt far beyond the Wireless world.
Tom Wheeler, who was appointed FCC Chairman by President Obama last year was given an thankless & impossible task: begin addressing bringing communications in this country up to the 21st century. The previous FCC Chairman, Julius Genachowski, had laid down some pretty audacious goals in his years that Wheeler now has to develop a plan for. And Wheeler’s boss just threw a live hand grenade into Wheeler’s lap with his net neutrality wishes.
At the same time, younger people are moving away from the more traditional means of home communications. Their mobile devices allow them to be free to move at will and not be constrained by certain area codes or tethered to wired Internet access. More and more, younger people are cutting the cords and lines all together, putting strains on wireless networks, yet these younger people still demand faster and better internet experiences at the same price. So better, faster, and still cheap.
To increase a user experience, more capacity has to be added to meet the increasing demand. More capacity can be added in 3 ways: Spectral efficiency, more cell phone towers, and more available Wireless spectrum. Without adequate capacity, the Mobile Internet will grind to a halt.
My thoughts on Net Neutrality are as follows: if Net Neutrality is going to be implemented, then Wireless Providers are going to have to be freed up to optimize the experience for all. That means the following:
(1) MORE WIRELESS SPECTRUM MUST BE ALLOCATED TO WIRELESS PROVIDERS: Obviously this meets the more Spectrum aspect that providers need to provide better service. The Federal Government must act on the recommendations the FCC and the Obama Administration made back in 2009 of adding 500 MHz of spectrum to be used in Wireless by 2020. Only now are auctions for newer spectrum bands starting to take shape—the first since the famed 700 MHz auctions in 2008. What is being provided now (about 110 MHz) is woefully inadequate to meet the increasing demands.
(2) TIME TO KISS 2G & 3G TECHNOLOGIES GOODBYE… AND HELLO VOLTE: I bet you didn’t know that even the iPhone 6 makes calls on a nearly 20-year old cellular network in the US. Oh, it’s true. You think a faster iPhone gives you better phone call quality? Wrong. For the most part, it’s still making calls on the original digital cellular technologies, such as GSM and CDMA. But that is changing as we speak. T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T are all rolling out VoLTE technology. Think of it as HD Voice for your mobile device. The calls are clearer, the latencies are shorter, and it’s a better overall experience. But instead of having it’s own dedicated voice channels, VoLTE uses the LTE data network. Your voice is spliced up into 1s and 0s and transmitted like data packets just like internet traffic. Your voice in fact becomes internet traffic. Telcos were having a devil of a time implementing this. You see, wireless providers get most of their money from SMS messages (Texting) and Voice Calls. Data traffic, and Video gives Wireless Providers very little in terms of profit. So, there was no push to go to VoLTE. But with Bandwidth becoming more precious, they no longer have any choice but to implement VoLTE. In turn, the Wireless Providers are gradually turning off the older cellular network and recapitalizing that spectrum for 4G purposes in sort of a carrier-aggregation aspect. Verizon is setting a 2021 deadline for ending 2G & 3G services. AT&T intends to end 2G services in 2 years. This will account for the spectral efficiency component to increase network capacity.
(3) THE GAPS MUST BE FILLED IN… AND REDUNDANT BACKUP POWER SUPPLIES MUST BE ACCOUNTED FOR: 9/11, the Earthquake in Virginia in 2011, and Superstorm Sandy exposed the limitations of Wireless Networks. If everyone tries to get on the network in the same area at the same time, the network will jam itself. The Wireless Networks are ill-equipped at this time to handle such a volume. Sandy exposed something worse. In times of natural disasters, improper backup power supplies located in the wrong places could knock out networks in local areas for weeks.
If you are going to have the best wireless networks around, you need smaller “cell towers” in heavily populated areas to offload some of the traffic with even smaller cells in residential areas. This meets the more towers requirement without having to put giant cell towers every 500 feet in this country. Mixing Small Cell Tower with Larger Cell Towers gives us Heterogeneous Networks (or HetNets for short). HetNet technology is not just a fantasy; it’s here & now. All the major Wireless Carriers are deploying them as we speak. In a few short years, small cells will account for 86% of all internet connections. And Backup Power Supplies (think solar, for example) must be available in case restoring the network in certain locales takes time. In short, if you are going to put a small Cell Tower on top of a beachfront hotel, don’t put the backup Power Supply in the basement where a Hurricane could flood it and short out the power.
So we have accounted for the main needs Wireless Networks have to meet the increasing demand. But two other needs must be met in order for Wireless Networks to achieve their full potential…
(4) TERMINATE THE COPPER WIRELINE TELEPHONE NETWORK MANDATES: AT&T, Verizon, and CenturyLink comprise most of the original Ma Bell, which had to maintain copper lines built after WWII allowing people to communicate via telephone. In this day and age, few young people know how to maintain those 50+ year old lines. While fiber is being used in modern networks around big cities, fiber has a nasty little aspect to it… Maintaining connections becomes more the responsibility of the end user, rather than the provider as was the case with Copper. You see that with AT&T’s U-Verse and Verizon’s FiOS systems. If the power goes out, you have roughly an 8-hour battery life before your home phone dies. The Fiber network still operates, but it relies on the power of the backup battery in your home. In the old copper days, network redundancies and the low power consumption allowed phone calls to be made even when power was out for days at a time. In fact, the Government mandated the Old Ma Bell had to maintain those copper lines as a “Carrier of Last Resort” in times of natural disasters.
But with kids moving away from the guaranteed reliable wired networks into wireless networks, why should AT&T, and Verizon be forced to maintain an aging network? It can’t be expected to. My guess is that if the FCC forces Tier I Cell providers like AT&T and Verizon to met net neutrality obligations, a trade-off will be made which will eliminate the carrier of last resort mandates nationwide. In short, the old Copper Wired Telephone Network will die… and with it, most of the unionized workforce that the children of Ma Bell Employ. In its stead, a more IP-based protocol system (what 4G LTE networks have now) will be put in place allowing for fiber and/or wireless networks to provide some semblance of continued continuity for those who still rely on making a phone call while delivering other services, such as TV and Internet to users as well. But it will not be as reliable. Call it a hunch, but the end of the Old Wired Telephone Network will happen before the end of this decade. There may be still Copper Lines in Rural areas as AT&T and Verizon sells those lines off to Mom & Pop Companies. But in the cities & suburbs, fiber and Wireless will replace Copper.
Even with ending Copper Line Connectivity, and meeting all the wireless network requirements to make the internet better, the fact is 90% of the Internet is still ruled by porn. The thought of 50 billion mobile devices looking mostly for oiled-up naked Kim Kardashian butt pics is disturbing, but there is another solution… if people want to pay for it…
(5) A SEPARATE, SECURE, AND PAY-INTERNET MUST BE ESTABLISHED TO ALLOW HIGHER-SPEED AND GUARANTEED ACCESS: In short, a Second Internet must be established. This Internet will be more reliable, allow for greater security, and will allow for faster access. No porn on this second Internet. But in order to access this guaranteed faster Internet, you will have to pay and if you try to hack the network, you will be kicked off of the new internet. Think of it as a tollway interstate system where the speed limit is unlimited, but breaking the rules means you can never access it again.
There are still disruptive ways to connect to the Internet. WiFi is being used now, and LTE-Direct could be an interesting way to access the Internet. But if people still want to be connected to the outside world via a relatively cheap internet, the Government must provide the tools to wireless companies to make the experience work… and eliminate antiquated wired rules. You want net neutrality, fine. But you’ll “pay”… one way or another.
No comments:
Post a Comment