We may be witnessing the true beginning of a new polling revolution as we approach the 2014 mid-term elections… something which could be factored on going forward. With an increasing amount of people relying on cell phones/mobile devices as their only means of communications whether on the road or at home, the traditional means of polling people by using landline phones may go the way of the VCR… and it may make polling unreliable unless pollsters adapt.
In the past, every home owner had a landline phone from which pollsters could contact by using a phone book and get a reasonable sample size to determine who was going to win an election. This, in term, helped the Democrats and Republicans identify hot races to pour money into, and dumping far fewer dollars into races which were less competitive. As more campaign money is now being thrown into more races via outside sources, the polling indicates races turning, thus forcing national parties to throw even more money at more races.
But in an age when more and more people are ditching landline phones in favor of mobile devices, can the pollsters keep pace? A recent poll conducted in one of the key US Senate races of interest may provide a clue. In Alaska, throughout most of the summer & early fall incumbent senator, Mark Begich (D ), was trailing by 5 percentage points. But a recent poll, undertaken by a Republican consultant showed Begich ahead—by 10 percentage points.
Why the change in spread? Did Begich’s challenger make some key missteps? No. Did the Democrat National Committee pump in major money to Alaska? Not that I’m aware of. So what did the Republican consultant do that showed such a change? Answer: 79% of the poll’s respondents answered the questions via cell phones. No big deal, you think. Until you realize that in Alaska the cell phone is a more reliable means of communication—because landlines do not exist in significant numbers in Alaska.
So which polling in Alaska should be considered as more accurate: the polls indicating Begich is 5 points behind or the one showing Begich is 10 points ahead? Can cell phone polling be used as a reliable means of predicting election patterns? To answer that, four stereotypes must be confronted about mobile devices:
Stereotype #1: Younger people (currently those under the age of 40 as of 2014) are more likely to ditch landlines in favor of mobile service.
Stereotype #2: Those same younger people in stereotype #1 are more progressive in their political logic.
Stereotype #3: Those same younger people in stereotype #1 are more likely to vote in Presidential elections than in mid-term elections.
Stereotype #4: If you call someone on a cell phone, they will know who is calling and, unless it is a friend, they will ignore the call.
Are these stereotypes true or more myth? The pollsters and political parties that can navigate through these stereotypes to discover the truth about mobile users and how to reach them successfully may have a leg up in the elections to come.
Is the US Senate race in Alaska the first such successful polling of cell phone users? Or is it distorted in favor of Begich? The answer will come on Tuesday. But if the Republican pollster in Alaska polled the right people, his polling will be studied for elections to come. More than control of Congress and Governors’ mansions are at stake on Tuesday. The very future of polling voters in an increasing mobile world is as well.
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