So the post-modem about the 2014 election is largely political analysts trying to explain how they were so wrong about the polling in the final days leading up to the election. It’s impossible to think those tea-party extremist Republicans could have won so decisively over those caring Democrats, they surmise. It has also focused on the Koch brothers and how these analysts claim they bought all the elections for the Republicans (ignoring the fact that Democrats have their own fat cat donors in the form of George Soros and others). But that’s not the point…
When smart people make stupid generalizations about events that happen, I always go looking for counterexamples to combat their lazy assumptions. This time, I didn’t have go looking far. So OK smart-asses…
Explain Maryland’s 2014 Gubernatorial Election.
Democrats hold a registration advantage of 2 to 1 over Republicans in this state. They have held nearly all of the top offices in the state over the last 45 years. The last three United States Senators have come from the same reliably Democrat 3rd US House District. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by much more than a 2 to 1 margin (it has often been joked that the Republicans in Annapolis could hold their caucus meetings in a broom closet). Maryland is often considered the most progressive state in the Union.
The Democrat strongholds in Maryland are focused on two areas: Baltimore City, and the DC suburbs of Montgomery & Prince George’s Countries. Baltimore City & Prince George’s County have a heavy African-American presence, while Montgomery County is home to many ultra-rich progressives. Those three areas have more than counteracted any Republican insurgencies (see 1994 as a Prime example).
For the last 8 years, the Maryland Governor has been Martin O’ Malley. He has seemingly had his way in Annapolis. Two years ago, he successfully pushed 7 ballot initiatives through the legislature, then through referendum (those initiatives included legalizing same-sex marriage, in-state tuition for illegal immigrants, and legalizing table games at Maryland Casinos—did I mention O’Malley got Maryland voters to make gambling in the state a Constitutional mandate back in 2008?). In fact, O’Malley has been so successful, he has decided to all but declare his intention to run for President of the United States in 2016.
O’Malley’s Lt. Governor, Anthony Brown, decided to run for Governor this year and won the Democratic primary, which in normal years would mean an automatic win in the General Election. He outspent his General Election Opponent, Republican businessman Larry Hogan, by at least 2 to 1 in ads. At the beginning of the year, he was leading in hypothetical polling by 18 points over Hogan, had over 50% support in many polls following the Democratic primary, and held a 7 point lead in the final Baltimore Sun poll leading up to the election. He was on pace to be the first African-American Governor in Maryland history. No one really seemed to pay attention and just assumed it was a foregone conclusion Brown would trounce Hogan.
And yet…
Election Night came and Larry Hogan won in a decisive manner. A few votes are still being counted in Baltimore City, but Hogan beat Brown by over 4 points or about 70000 votes. It was the most stunning result of the night. Democrats are struggling to explain what happened.
So what happened? Maybe Hogan pulled Election day chicanery? No. In fact, there were allegations that the Diebold Electronic Voting booths were registering some of Hogan’s votes as Brown votes. Was there voter suppression in Maryland? No. Again, the rules are designed to favor Democrat voters—no poll tax, no voter ID, no restrictions against voters. Maybe Hogan had more ad funding than Brown? No, remember Brown outspent Hogan by 2 to 1. Maybe racism played a rule in the election? Nice try. Hogan’s running mate ended up being the third consecutive African-American Lt. Gov. in the state. Did top Democrats refuse to endorse Brown? Not that I’m aware of.
So what happened? Media analysts are still scratching their heads. But I know what happened. Want me to tell you really happened? You sure? OK, there were multiple reasons why Hogan beat Brown. Here are a few:
(1) HOGAN HAD A CAMPAIGN MESSAGE… AND STAYED ON IT FROM DAY 1: Simply put the message was Marylanders were being taxed too much and people and businesses were fleeing the state for other more tax friendly locals. 40 taxes were raised during O’Malley’s 8 years as Gov., including an infamous “Rain Tax” (more accurately described as a tax to create a fund to clean up the Chesapeake Bay). People of all political stripes were getting tired of being taxed beyond their means. In addition, some of the taxes designated for things like transportation were diverted for other purposes—legally, but it made voters mad that the legislature were pleading poverty on transportation funding after raiding those same funds for something else. Hogan wanted to stop burdening Maryland voters with more taxes and wanted to try and make a state ranked 49th in business climate more friendly. As for Brown, all he really offered in his campaign was expanding Pre-K education. In the closing days, he offered to look at business regulations once elected, but it was a half-hearted gesture. Which leads to point 2…
(2) ANTHONY BROWN RAN A POOR, SLOPPY CAMPAIGN… AND HOGAN RAN A BEAUTIFUL CAMPAIGN: In short, Brown never took the built-in lead he had after the primary and expand that lead. He was more interested in campaigning not to lose the election. He had a distinctively negative tone in his campaign, attacking Hogan with distorted accusations. It was one of the worst campaigns in Maryland history, and did not really inspire voters to go to the polls. Instead, Brown tried to win on fear. Hogan, on the other hand, ran a clean campaign. Some local analysts even thought it was one of the best campaigns run in recent Maryland history. Not even last minute appearances by the President and First Lady, who remain popular in the state, could save Brown. Brown failed to energize his own base.
(3) HOGAN WENT EVERYWHERE… EVEN INTO DEMOCRATIC STRONGHOLDS: Larry Hogan went across the state in an effort to ask people for their votes. He talked with voters—not just supporters, but people who probably ended up voting for Brown. He made an effort to reach out to African-American voters with more than lip-service. Brown took his base for granted. That, combined with the negative campaigning, turned off many voters in Montgomery County and possible supporters in Howard and Baltimore Counties.
(4) WHO IS ANTHONY BROWN: Fact: No Lt. Gov. has ever been promoted to the top position in the State of Maryland. There a reason for that: Most Lt. Gov. have been placed on the ballot to check off the box for a special group of voters needed to secure elections. Once in Annapolis, the #2 position is largely symbolic. Despite attempts by O’Malley to help raise Brown’s profile, he never really gained traction as a name in Annapolis. And one of Brown’s high-profile tasks in Annapolis ended up being a debacle.
(5) BROWN RAN THE FAILED STATE HEALTH-CARE EXCHANGE: Brown was the guy that was supposed to help roll out the State of Maryland Website for Obamacare… and the rollout was a disaster. First off, with all the smart people supposedly in Maryland, why was a Canadian company chosen to roll out the Website. (Editor’s note: The reason the Health-care exchange worked so well in Kentucky as opposed to Maryland? I believe they found the smartest people in Kentucky to help roll out the state exchange and talked to the people of the state to find out what they needed. There may not be a “whole lot of smart people” in Kentucky, but they found the right people and their exchange worked well). And it took a while before Maryland admitted their mistake and went with the National Website. But it cost major money. And since Brown was the one in charge of the initial botched rollout, he took the blame.
But maybe the last reason is the real reason…
(6 ) PEOPLE WANTED CHANGE: Anthony Brown didn’t want to distance himself from Martin O’Malley. And despite O’Malley’s successes in Annapolis, he was losing popularity as the full ramifications of his tax hikes became apparent. Brown’s failure to bring new ideas to his campaign, largely campaigning for a 3rd O’Malley term turned away his base. Even normally reliable Democratic voters switched over to vote for a fresh face in Annapolis.
Now, to be fair, Larry Hogan will not have an easy time as Governor in Annapolis. With Michael Busch and Mike Miller still in control of the legislature, it will not be easy to roll back any of O’Malley’s taxes. But even if Hogan is unsuccessful, it appears Democrats have gotten the message: Stop taxing residents at will, start bringing businesses back to Maryland, and start proving you can be good stewards of the state.
The lesson here: Money doesn’t always win elections. Neither does an existing voter base advantage. Having a good message and ground game can overcome the odds—and Hogan certainly had both of those. His reward is the top position in Maryland for the next 4 years. Can Hogan capitalize on his success and help build a legitimate opposition to the Maryland Democrat Machine that has steamrolled Republicans over the years? That remains to be seen…
As for Anthony Brown and his running mate, Ken Ulman? Their statewide political careers are over. Democrats in Maryland do not tolerate statewide failures (see Kathleen Kennedy Townsend). And Martin O’Malley’s Presidential Campaign in 2016 took possibly a fatal hit. O’Malley may want to focus on taking a few years off, then come back and possibly run for US Senate in 2018 if Ben Cardin retires. In the end, the Democrats will run a stronger candidate in four years to try and reclaim the top spot.
In the end Hogan was the better choice. Now comes the hard part for someone who has never held political office before: governing. And as for political analysts: I wondered if they have learned any real lessons from this election cycle. Maybe, maybe not… But the dumb generalizations about what happened will continue. Why? Because it’s easy to come up with an excuse to blame something for losing elections. That’s just the way we are. We’re human after all.
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