The Price of Net Neutrality (a.k.a. “Your WiFi or Your Landline” or “A Tale of Two Internets”)

Net Neutrality recently became a hot news topic when President Obama voiced support for the cause.  The issue which has largely simmered in the back rooms of technical discussions has now burst onto the scene with everyone seemingly now having an opinion—and most of those opinions unaware about the ramifications about what net neutrality means.

Now don’t get me wrong.  Opinions are nice—when you aren’t regurgitating 5-10 year old arguments for and against net neutrality.  The issue has become extremely complicated in recent years as the internet has gone from just dealing with PCs to dealing with the IoT (or Internet of Things—basically means everything from computers to cell phones to refrigerators to TVs to Smart meters to well any personal device that can connect to the Internet).  And some hard choices are going to have to be made in the near future—choices that some who support net neutrality will not like.

The next 10 years are going to be the most critical in the transformation of communication systems in our country.  The problem is that we did not address the potential pitfalls of the internet within the past 20 years and the failure to do so has now put the communications networks of this country on the brink of rolling blackouts or freezes.  Asking Tier I Cellular Companies to increase capacity but enforce net neutrality is going to have major consequences as more and more devices (perhaps as many as 50 billion devices worldwide within 10 years) access the Internet.  And with newer generations technologies, like LTE and LTE-Advanced unable to keep up with the exponentially growing demand, it’s going to get ugly soon, unless radical changes are made.  Those changes will be felt far beyond the Wireless world.

Tom Wheeler, who was appointed FCC Chairman by President Obama last year was given an thankless & impossible task: begin addressing bringing communications in this country up to the 21st century.  The previous FCC Chairman, Julius Genachowski, had laid down some pretty audacious goals in his years that Wheeler now has to develop a plan for.  And Wheeler’s boss just threw a live hand grenade into Wheeler’s lap with his net neutrality wishes. 

At the same time, younger people are moving away from the more traditional means of home communications.  Their mobile devices allow them to be free to move at will and not be constrained by certain area codes or tethered to wired Internet access.  More and more, younger people are cutting the cords and lines all together, putting strains on wireless networks, yet these younger people still demand faster and better internet experiences at the same price.  So better, faster, and still cheap.

To increase a user experience, more capacity has to be added to meet the increasing demand.  More capacity can be added in 3 ways: Spectral efficiency, more cell phone towers, and more available Wireless spectrum.  Without adequate capacity, the Mobile Internet will grind to a halt.

My thoughts on Net Neutrality are as follows: if Net Neutrality is going to be implemented, then Wireless Providers are going to have to be freed up to optimize the experience for all.  That means the following:

(1) MORE WIRELESS SPECTRUM MUST BE ALLOCATED TO WIRELESS PROVIDERS:  Obviously this meets the more Spectrum aspect that providers need to provide better service.  The Federal Government must act on the recommendations the FCC and the Obama Administration made back in 2009 of adding 500 MHz of spectrum to be used in Wireless by 2020.  Only now are auctions for newer spectrum bands starting to take shape—the first since the famed 700 MHz auctions in 2008.  What is being provided now (about 110 MHz) is woefully inadequate to meet the increasing demands.

(2) TIME TO KISS 2G & 3G TECHNOLOGIES GOODBYE… AND HELLO VOLTE:  I bet you didn’t know that even the iPhone 6 makes calls on a nearly 20-year old cellular network in the US.  Oh, it’s true.  You think a faster iPhone gives you better phone call quality?  Wrong.  For the most part, it’s still making calls on the original digital cellular technologies, such as GSM and CDMA.  But that is changing as we speak.  T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T are all rolling out VoLTE technology.  Think of it as HD Voice for your mobile device.  The calls are clearer, the latencies are shorter, and it’s a better overall experience.  But instead of having it’s own dedicated voice channels, VoLTE uses the LTE data network.  Your voice is spliced up into 1s and 0s and transmitted like data packets just like internet traffic.  Your voice in fact becomes internet traffic.  Telcos were having a devil of a time implementing this.  You see, wireless providers get most of their money from SMS messages (Texting) and Voice Calls.  Data traffic, and Video gives Wireless Providers very little in terms of profit.  So, there was no push to go to VoLTE.  But with Bandwidth becoming more precious, they no longer have any choice but to implement VoLTE.  In turn, the Wireless Providers are gradually turning off the older cellular network and recapitalizing that spectrum for 4G purposes in sort of a carrier-aggregation aspect.  Verizon is setting a 2021 deadline for ending 2G & 3G services.  AT&T intends to end 2G services in 2 years.  This will account for the spectral efficiency component to increase network capacity. 

(3) THE GAPS MUST BE FILLED IN… AND REDUNDANT BACKUP POWER SUPPLIES MUST BE ACCOUNTED FOR:  9/11, the Earthquake in Virginia in 2011, and Superstorm Sandy exposed the limitations of Wireless Networks.  If everyone tries to get on the network in the same area at the same time, the network will jam itself.  The Wireless Networks are ill-equipped at this time to handle such a volume.  Sandy exposed something worse.  In times of natural disasters, improper backup power supplies located in the wrong places could knock out networks in local areas for weeks. 

If you are going to have the best wireless networks around, you need smaller “cell towers” in heavily populated areas to offload some of the traffic with even smaller cells in residential areas.  This meets the more towers requirement without having to put giant cell towers every 500 feet in this country.  Mixing Small Cell Tower with Larger Cell Towers gives us Heterogeneous Networks (or HetNets for short). HetNet technology is not just a fantasy; it’s here & now.  All the major Wireless Carriers are deploying them as we speak.  In a few short years, small cells will account for 86% of all internet connections.  And Backup Power Supplies (think solar, for example) must be available in case restoring the network in certain locales takes time.  In short, if you are going to put a small Cell Tower on top of a beachfront hotel, don’t put the backup Power Supply in the basement where a Hurricane could flood it and short out the power.

So we have accounted for the main needs Wireless Networks have to meet the increasing demand.  But two other needs must be met in order for Wireless Networks to achieve their full potential…

(4) TERMINATE THE COPPER WIRELINE TELEPHONE NETWORK MANDATES:  AT&T, Verizon, and CenturyLink comprise most of the original Ma Bell, which had to maintain copper lines built after WWII allowing people to communicate via telephone.  In this day and age, few young people know how to maintain those 50+ year old lines.  While fiber is being used in modern networks around big cities, fiber has a nasty little aspect to it… Maintaining connections becomes more the responsibility of the end user, rather than the provider as was the case with Copper.  You see that with AT&T’s U-Verse and Verizon’s FiOS systems.  If the power goes out, you have roughly an 8-hour battery life before your home phone dies.  The Fiber network still operates, but it relies on the power of the backup battery in your home. In the old copper days, network redundancies and the low power consumption allowed phone calls to be made even when power was out for days at a time.  In fact, the Government mandated the Old Ma Bell had to maintain those copper lines as a “Carrier of Last Resort” in times of natural disasters.

But with kids moving away from the guaranteed reliable wired networks into wireless networks, why should AT&T, and Verizon be forced to maintain an aging network?  It can’t be expected to.  My guess is that if the FCC forces Tier I Cell providers like AT&T and Verizon to met net neutrality obligations, a trade-off will be made which will eliminate the carrier of last resort mandates nationwide.  In short, the old Copper Wired Telephone Network will die… and with it, most of the unionized workforce that the children of Ma Bell Employ.  In its stead, a more IP-based protocol system (what 4G LTE networks have now) will be put in place allowing for fiber and/or wireless networks to provide some semblance of continued continuity for those who still rely on making a phone call while delivering other services, such as TV and Internet to users as well.  But it will not be as reliable.  Call it a hunch, but the end of the Old Wired Telephone Network will happen before the end of this decade.  There may be still Copper Lines in Rural areas as AT&T and Verizon sells those lines off to Mom & Pop Companies.  But in the cities & suburbs, fiber and Wireless will replace Copper.

Even with ending Copper Line Connectivity, and meeting all the wireless network requirements to make the internet better, the fact is 90% of the Internet is still ruled by porn.  The thought of 50 billion mobile devices looking mostly for oiled-up naked Kim Kardashian butt pics is disturbing, but there is another solution… if people want to pay for it…

(5) A SEPARATE, SECURE, AND PAY-INTERNET MUST BE ESTABLISHED TO ALLOW HIGHER-SPEED AND GUARANTEED ACCESS:  In short, a Second Internet must be established.  This Internet will be more reliable, allow for greater security, and will allow for faster access.  No porn on this second Internet.  But in order to access this guaranteed faster Internet, you will have to pay and if you try to hack the network, you will be kicked off of the new internet.  Think of it as a tollway interstate system where the speed limit is unlimited, but breaking the rules means you can never access it again.

There are still disruptive ways to connect to the Internet. WiFi is being used now, and LTE-Direct could be an interesting way to access the Internet. But if people still want to be connected to the outside world via a relatively cheap internet, the Government must provide the tools to wireless companies to make the experience work… and eliminate antiquated wired rules.  You want net neutrality, fine.  But you’ll “pay”… one way or another.

An Inconvenient Counterexample about Elections & Money

So the post-modem about the 2014 election is largely political analysts trying to explain how they were so wrong about the polling in the final days leading up to the election.  It’s impossible to think those tea-party  extremist Republicans could have won so decisively over those caring Democrats, they surmise.  It has also focused on the Koch brothers and how these analysts claim they bought all the elections for the Republicans (ignoring the fact that Democrats have their own fat cat donors in the form of George Soros and others).  But that’s not the point…

When smart people make stupid generalizations about events that happen, I always go looking for counterexamples to combat their lazy assumptions.  This time, I didn’t have go looking far.  So OK smart-asses…

Explain Maryland’s 2014 Gubernatorial Election.

Democrats hold a registration advantage of 2 to 1 over Republicans in this state.  They have held nearly all of the top offices in the state over the last 45 years.  The last three United States Senators have come from the same reliably Democrat 3rd US House District.  Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by much more than a 2 to 1 margin (it has often been joked that the Republicans in Annapolis could hold their caucus meetings in a broom closet).  Maryland is often considered the most progressive state in the Union.

The Democrat strongholds in Maryland are focused on two areas:  Baltimore City, and the DC suburbs of Montgomery & Prince George’s Countries.  Baltimore City & Prince George’s County have a heavy African-American presence, while Montgomery County is home to many ultra-rich progressives.  Those three areas have more than counteracted any Republican insurgencies (see 1994 as a Prime example).

For the last 8 years, the Maryland Governor has been Martin O’ Malley.  He has seemingly had his way in Annapolis.  Two years ago, he successfully pushed 7 ballot initiatives through the legislature, then through referendum (those initiatives included legalizing same-sex marriage, in-state tuition for illegal immigrants, and legalizing table games at Maryland Casinos—did I mention O’Malley got Maryland voters to make gambling in the state a Constitutional mandate back in 2008?).  In fact, O’Malley has been so successful, he has decided to all but declare his intention to run for President of the United States in 2016.

O’Malley’s Lt. Governor, Anthony Brown, decided to run for Governor this year and won the Democratic primary, which in normal years would mean an automatic win in the General Election.  He outspent his General Election Opponent, Republican businessman Larry Hogan, by at least 2 to 1 in ads.  At the beginning of the year, he was leading in hypothetical polling by 18 points over Hogan, had over 50% support in many polls following the Democratic primary, and held a 7 point lead in the final Baltimore Sun poll leading up to the election.  He was on pace to be the first African-American Governor in Maryland history. No one really seemed to pay attention and just assumed it was a foregone conclusion Brown would trounce Hogan.

And yet…

Election Night came and Larry Hogan won in a decisive manner.  A few votes are still being counted in Baltimore City, but Hogan beat Brown by over 4 points or about 70000 votes.  It was the most stunning result of the night.  Democrats are struggling to explain what happened.

So what happened?  Maybe Hogan pulled Election day chicanery? No.  In fact, there were allegations that the Diebold Electronic Voting booths were registering some of Hogan’s votes as Brown votes.  Was there voter suppression in Maryland?  No.  Again, the rules are designed to favor Democrat voters—no poll tax, no voter ID, no restrictions against voters.  Maybe Hogan had more ad funding than Brown?  No, remember Brown outspent Hogan by 2 to 1.  Maybe racism played a rule in the election?  Nice try.  Hogan’s running mate ended up being the third consecutive African-American Lt. Gov. in the state.  Did top Democrats refuse to endorse Brown?  Not that I’m aware of.

So what happened?  Media analysts are still scratching their heads.  But I know what happened.  Want me to tell you really happened?  You sure?  OK, there were multiple reasons why Hogan beat Brown.  Here are a few:

(1) HOGAN HAD A CAMPAIGN MESSAGE… AND STAYED ON IT FROM DAY 1:  Simply put the message was Marylanders were being taxed too much and people and businesses were fleeing the state for other more tax friendly locals.  40 taxes were raised during O’Malley’s 8 years as Gov., including an infamous “Rain Tax” (more accurately described as a tax to create a fund to clean up the Chesapeake Bay).  People of all political stripes were getting tired of being taxed beyond their means.  In addition, some of the taxes designated for things like transportation were diverted for other purposes—legally, but it made voters mad that the legislature were pleading poverty on transportation funding after raiding those same funds for something else.  Hogan wanted to stop burdening Maryland voters with more taxes and wanted to try and make a state ranked 49th in business climate more friendly.  As for Brown, all he really offered in his campaign was expanding Pre-K education.  In the closing days, he offered to look at business regulations once elected, but it was a half-hearted gesture.  Which leads to point 2…

(2) ANTHONY BROWN RAN A POOR, SLOPPY CAMPAIGN… AND HOGAN RAN A BEAUTIFUL CAMPAIGN:  In short, Brown never took the built-in lead he had after the primary and expand that lead.  He was more interested in campaigning not to lose the election.  He had a distinctively negative tone in his campaign, attacking Hogan with distorted accusations.  It was one of the worst campaigns in Maryland history, and did not really inspire voters to go to the polls.  Instead, Brown tried to win on fear.  Hogan, on the other hand, ran a clean campaign.  Some local analysts even thought it was one of the best campaigns run in recent Maryland history.  Not even last minute appearances by the President and First Lady, who remain popular in the state, could save Brown.  Brown failed to energize his own base.

(3) HOGAN WENT EVERYWHERE… EVEN INTO DEMOCRATIC STRONGHOLDS:  Larry Hogan went across the state in an effort to ask people for their votes.  He talked with voters—not just supporters, but people who probably ended up voting for Brown.  He made an effort to reach out to African-American voters with more than lip-service.  Brown took his base for granted.  That, combined with the negative campaigning, turned off many voters in Montgomery County and possible supporters in Howard and Baltimore Counties.

(4) WHO IS ANTHONY BROWN:  Fact: No Lt. Gov. has ever been promoted to the top position in the State of Maryland.  There a reason for that:  Most Lt. Gov. have been placed on the ballot to check off the box for a special group of voters needed to secure elections.  Once in Annapolis, the #2 position is largely symbolic.  Despite attempts by O’Malley to help raise Brown’s profile, he never really gained traction as a name in Annapolis.  And one of Brown’s high-profile tasks in Annapolis ended up being a debacle.

(5) BROWN RAN THE FAILED STATE HEALTH-CARE EXCHANGE:  Brown was the guy that was supposed to help roll out the State of Maryland Website for Obamacare… and the rollout was a disaster.  First off, with all the smart people supposedly in Maryland, why was a Canadian company chosen to roll out the Website. (Editor’s note:  The reason the Health-care exchange worked so well in Kentucky as opposed to Maryland?  I believe they found the smartest people in Kentucky to help roll out the state exchange and talked to the people of the state to find out what they needed.  There may not be a “whole lot of smart people” in Kentucky, but they found the right people and their exchange worked well).  And it took a while before Maryland admitted their mistake and went with the National Website.  But it cost major money.  And since Brown was the one in charge of the initial botched rollout, he took the blame.

But maybe the last reason is the real reason…

(6 ) PEOPLE WANTED CHANGE:  Anthony Brown didn’t want to distance himself from Martin O’Malley.  And despite O’Malley’s successes in Annapolis, he was losing popularity as the full ramifications of his tax hikes became apparent.  Brown’s failure to bring new ideas to his campaign, largely campaigning for a 3rd O’Malley term turned away his base.  Even normally reliable Democratic voters switched over to vote for a fresh face in Annapolis.

Now, to be fair, Larry Hogan will not have an easy time as Governor in Annapolis.  With Michael Busch and Mike Miller still in control of the legislature, it will not be easy to roll back any of O’Malley’s taxes.  But even if Hogan is unsuccessful, it appears Democrats have gotten the message:  Stop taxing residents at will, start bringing businesses back to Maryland, and start proving you can be good stewards of the state.

The lesson here:  Money doesn’t always win elections.  Neither does an existing voter base advantage.  Having a good message and ground game can overcome the odds—and Hogan certainly had both of those.  His reward is the top position in Maryland for the next 4 years.  Can Hogan capitalize on his success and help build a legitimate opposition to the Maryland Democrat Machine that has steamrolled Republicans over the years?  That remains to be seen…

As for Anthony Brown and his running mate, Ken Ulman?  Their statewide political careers are over.  Democrats in Maryland do not tolerate statewide failures (see Kathleen Kennedy Townsend).  And Martin O’Malley’s Presidential Campaign in 2016 took possibly a fatal hit.  O’Malley may want to focus on taking a few years off, then come back and possibly run for US Senate in 2018 if Ben Cardin retires.  In the end, the Democrats will run a stronger candidate in four years to try and reclaim the top spot.

In the end Hogan was the better choice.  Now comes the hard part for someone who has never held political office before:  governing.  And as for political analysts:  I wondered if they have learned any real lessons from this election cycle.  Maybe, maybe not… But the dumb generalizations about what happened will continue.  Why?  Because it’s easy to come up with an excuse to blame something for losing elections.  That’s just the way we are.  We’re human after all.

How the Wireless World may be changing the 2014 mid-term elections… & may change every National election going forward…

We may be witnessing the true beginning of a new polling revolution as we approach the 2014 mid-term elections… something which could be factored on going forward.  With an increasing amount of people relying on cell phones/mobile devices as their only means of communications whether on the road or at home, the traditional means of polling people by using landline phones may go the way of the VCR… and it may make polling unreliable unless pollsters adapt.

In the past, every home owner had a landline phone from which pollsters could contact by using a phone book and get a reasonable sample size to determine who was going to win an election.  This, in term, helped the Democrats and Republicans identify hot races to pour money into, and dumping far fewer dollars into races which were less competitive.  As more campaign money is now being thrown into more races via outside sources, the polling indicates races turning, thus forcing national parties to throw even more money at more races.

But in an age when more and more people are ditching landline phones in favor of mobile devices, can the pollsters keep pace?  A recent poll conducted in one of the key US Senate races of interest may provide a clue.  In Alaska, throughout most of the summer & early fall incumbent senator, Mark Begich (D ), was trailing by 5 percentage points. But a recent poll, undertaken by a Republican consultant showed Begich ahead—by 10 percentage points. 

Why the change in spread?  Did Begich’s challenger make some key missteps? No.  Did the Democrat National Committee pump in major money to Alaska? Not that I’m aware of.  So what did the Republican consultant do that showed such a change?  Answer: 79% of the poll’s respondents answered the questions via cell phones. No big deal, you think. Until you realize that in Alaska the cell phone is a more reliable means of communication—because landlines do not exist in significant numbers in Alaska. 

So which polling in Alaska should be considered as more accurate:  the polls indicating Begich is 5 points behind or the one showing Begich is 10 points ahead? Can cell phone polling be used as a reliable means of predicting election patterns?  To answer that, four stereotypes must be confronted about mobile devices:

Stereotype #1: Younger people (currently those under the age of 40 as of 2014) are more likely to ditch landlines in favor of mobile service.

Stereotype #2: Those same younger people in stereotype #1 are more progressive in their political logic.

Stereotype #3: Those same younger people in stereotype #1 are more likely to vote in Presidential elections than in mid-term elections.

Stereotype #4: If you call someone on a cell phone, they will know who is calling and, unless it is a friend, they will ignore the call.

Are these stereotypes true or more myth? The pollsters and political parties that can navigate through these stereotypes to discover the truth about mobile users and how to reach them successfully may have a leg up in the elections to come. 

Is the US Senate race in Alaska the first such successful polling of cell phone users?  Or is it distorted in favor of Begich?  The answer will come on Tuesday.  But if the Republican pollster in Alaska polled the right people, his polling will be studied for elections to come.  More than control of Congress and Governors’ mansions are at stake on Tuesday.  The very future of polling voters in an increasing mobile world is as well.