Six weeks ago, Donald Trump won the Indiana primary in such a decisive fashion, the last two Republican challengers, John Kasich and Ted Cruz, suspended their campaigns, effectively ending the GOP election. At that moment, the door seemed open for Trump to begin pivoting his views towards the center, unify GOP support, and prepare for a general election showdown with a Hillary Clinton that was still trying to put away a surprising challenge from Bernie Sanders. In fact, during the last six weeks, Trump actually led Clinton in a general election match-up in a smattering of polls. And it appeared to be a wise move by Trump to visit California for several days in late May to play havoc causer in the Democratic Primary, when a Sanders win would have sent Clinton limping towards Philadelphia and the Democratic National Convention. It might have even been a little devilishly genius for Trump to appear in CA, and stir up protests by Latinos against his campaign visits in an attempt to solidify support in battleground states in November.
But instead of showing the ability to pivot, Trump played to his base and attacked many of his fellow GOP rivals, shaming them for not endorsing Trump immediately. Paul Ryan faced his wrath for a while before the Speaker of the House meekly endorsed him in late May. Susan Martinez and Nikki Haley, both diverse women who are the future of the GOP, came under attack. Trump also couldn't resist going after the Bush family and Mitt Romney, calling them losers and demanding their support of Trump.
The turning point, however, may have been Trump's pettiness in a legal matter now going through the courts concerning one of his ventures, Trump University. In mid-May, U.S. District Court Judge Gonzalo Curiel, ruled that Trump University case in California should begin in late November, which was a defeat for prosecuting lawyers who wanted to have the case begin this summer. While the Trump legal team wanted the case to begin next year, it was a victory of sorts for Trump who dodged a trial until after the election. Curiel also ruled the public could see documents related to the case. In response, Trump immediately began attacking the judge and accused him of being Mexican, even though Judge Curiel had been born in Indiana. When confronted with the facts of Judge Curiel's birthplace, Trump doubled down on his attacks. GOP leaders were horrified and Trump was condemned for being a racist on all sides. By the time Trump tried to tell the GOP to "get over it", it was far too late.
Trump's attacks on Judge Curiel also put Latino protests in CA in a more sympathetic light. I suspect Latino support helped carry Hillary Clinton to surprisingly huge victory in the California primary last Tuesday, as well as a victory in New Mexico. Bernie Sanders' last chance for momentum heading into a possible contested convention in Philadelphia was effectively over. Within 48 hours after the CA primary, most major Democratic leaders unified around Clinton, and began an all-out attack on Trump. Led by Mass. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Vice-President Joe Biden, the Dems turned Trump's attacks on Judge Curiel into a rallying cry for Democrats. While Sanders has yet to endorse Clinton, it would appear at least Bernie will pledge support for Clinton sometime in the coming days.
All major polls taken within the last 7 days now show Clinton with a small to sizable lead over Trump... even polls that once had Trump in the lead. But look closer, and you will see Trump is losing or tied in states that he must win to have even a chance to win in November. GOP strongholds like Utah and Kansas show the possibility of going to the Democrats on election day. (Clinton leads Trump by 7 in the latest Sunflower State poll, while Utah shows a tied race in a state that "loser Mitt Romney" won by 48% in 2012). Trump is trying to ignore such abysmal showing in reliable GOP states by stating he could make things competitive in PA, MD, NJ, and CA. Pennsylvania, maybe. But #1 Trump water boy, Chris Christie is very unpopular in the Garden State, there's a huge Latino voting base in CA already angry with Trump, and Maryland... Well, I live in the Old Line State, and the only chance Donald Trump has of winning it is if a nuclear bomb destroyed the entire I-95 corridor between D.C and Baltimore. He's not thinking realistically.
The last straw may be the Orlando massacre over the weekend. Trump seemed to congratulate himself for predicting such an ISIS-inspired massacre might happen, then attacked Obama and Clinton for being too soft and called once again for a Muslim immigration ban. But in the process, he also took time to revoke the press credentials for the only newspaper ever powerful enough to bring down a sitting President... the Washington Post (Watergate/Nixon). If Trump could do something that would potentially show disdain for the First Amendment of the US Constitution, what's to say he wouldn't challenge other aspects of the Constitution... Perhaps even the right to bear arms? In the past, he has called for a ban on certain guns.
Of course, things could change, and events could happen that would swing support back to Trump. And the full impact of the Orlando has yet to be felt in the polls. But it appears Trump has lost his best chance to win the Presidency and is now forced to wage the same ground game President Bush (43), John McCain, and Mitt Romney had to run to try and win the top office in the land... a toss-up scenario at best. At worst, Trump may be abandoned by the rest of the GOP leadership by the time the first General Election Presidential Debate reaches Wright State University in Dayton, OH this fall.
Funny how things can change in six weeks.
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
The Drive-By Autopsy of the 2016 Presidential Primary Season
We now know the two main participants in the General Election for President
of the United States. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton learned from her
defeat of 8 years ago at the hands of a young Illinois Senator named Barack
Obama, and turned back a surprising and spirited challenger from Independent
Socialist turned Democrat, Vermont Junior Senator (and I use the term “Junior”
loosely) Bernie Sanders. While on the Republican side, Democratic-leaning
Independent turned GOP Populist and alleged billionaire, Donald Trump, used
anger at the establishment in Washington and controversy to bully his way past
16 other challengers to become the GOP nominee. Both main participants used
contrasting styles to win. And while both candidates emerged victorious, both
Trump and Clinton enter the General Election cycle with record-high negative
ratings.
So how did we get here? And will the General Election play out similar to the last four cycles or be different as Donald Trump has promised?
(1) THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE: Clinton survived a scare in Iowa and a humbling early defeat in New Hampshire to Sanders, then began taking advantage of her popularity among minority voters to steamroll Bernie across the South. She also won the all the key big delegate states, with the exception of Michigan (the upset of the primaries). Even though Bernie hung tough and picked off 22 of the 50 states, Clinton never lost control of the situation and won when it counted. Bernie’s last attempt to seize momentum heading towards Philadelphia failed when Clinton scored a double-digit victory in California, thanks to Latino support. Clinton’s pillars of African-American, Latino, LGBT, and voters over 45 were stronger than Bernie’s pillars of under 45 voters, as well as crossover voters. It is expected Bernie will concede, probably after the DC primary next week. Clinton won the popular vote by about 3.5 million votes (est.) and the pledged delegate count by about 400. At this point, Clinton needs about 30% of the superdelegates to clinch, and she already has locked up about two-thirds of those, so despite Bernie’s pronouncements that he wants to take the fight to Philadelphia, that threat would be counterproductive.
(2) THE REPUBLICAN SIDE: Donald Trump used the power of the media to race past traditional candidates like Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, and others, outlasted rising stars like Marco Rubio and Ben Carson, and finally wore down Ted Cruz and John Kasich to all but wrap up the nomination in early May. Trump’s controversial statements about building a wall across the southern border and banning Muslims from entering the US played well to the GOP audience. His unorthodox style confounded pundits who believed his politically incorrect style combined with his lack of policy specifics would ultimately be fatal blows, but Trump seemed to get stronger as controversy swirled more around him. He now has the establishment GOP bending to his will, save a few outliers here and there.
Despite the dynamics and promises that this cycle will change the electoral college map one way or the other, it appears that, just like the last four election cycles, both candidates will start with over 3/4ths of the states and electoral votes already decided (sorry, Donald, after what happened in California yesterday, your boasts of winning the Golden State will not be backed up). In the electoral college map site, 270 to win, Hillary Clinton appears to be up 217 to 191 on Donald Trump in projected electoral votes, with about 130 electoral votes in the toss-up range. That is the most optimistic estimate for the GOP nominee, however, as other polls suggest Clinton has the edge in 253 electoral votes to 190 for Trump, with 95 electoral votes in the toss-up range. Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted the 2012 Election Winning margin for President Obama has Hillary as a strong favorite. Most predict Trump will have to win the Rust Belt Battleground States while turning back Clinton attempts to win in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona if Trump has any chance to be the 45th President of the United States.
Of course, things could happen to change the dynamics, and Trump’s willingness to cause controversy while stirring things up is the ultimate X-factor. Trump could peel off enough Sanders’ supporters to win a close race in November, but he could just as easily lose in a blowout, and, in the process, cost the GOP control of the Senate and (while a longshot) maybe even the House. We will know by the end of August which way the election is heading.
So despite the negatives about each candidate, here we are. The next five months are likely to be even uglier than the last five months. I fear we’ll all need a vacation from politics on November 9th.
So how did we get here? And will the General Election play out similar to the last four cycles or be different as Donald Trump has promised?
(1) THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE: Clinton survived a scare in Iowa and a humbling early defeat in New Hampshire to Sanders, then began taking advantage of her popularity among minority voters to steamroll Bernie across the South. She also won the all the key big delegate states, with the exception of Michigan (the upset of the primaries). Even though Bernie hung tough and picked off 22 of the 50 states, Clinton never lost control of the situation and won when it counted. Bernie’s last attempt to seize momentum heading towards Philadelphia failed when Clinton scored a double-digit victory in California, thanks to Latino support. Clinton’s pillars of African-American, Latino, LGBT, and voters over 45 were stronger than Bernie’s pillars of under 45 voters, as well as crossover voters. It is expected Bernie will concede, probably after the DC primary next week. Clinton won the popular vote by about 3.5 million votes (est.) and the pledged delegate count by about 400. At this point, Clinton needs about 30% of the superdelegates to clinch, and she already has locked up about two-thirds of those, so despite Bernie’s pronouncements that he wants to take the fight to Philadelphia, that threat would be counterproductive.
(2) THE REPUBLICAN SIDE: Donald Trump used the power of the media to race past traditional candidates like Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, and others, outlasted rising stars like Marco Rubio and Ben Carson, and finally wore down Ted Cruz and John Kasich to all but wrap up the nomination in early May. Trump’s controversial statements about building a wall across the southern border and banning Muslims from entering the US played well to the GOP audience. His unorthodox style confounded pundits who believed his politically incorrect style combined with his lack of policy specifics would ultimately be fatal blows, but Trump seemed to get stronger as controversy swirled more around him. He now has the establishment GOP bending to his will, save a few outliers here and there.
Despite the dynamics and promises that this cycle will change the electoral college map one way or the other, it appears that, just like the last four election cycles, both candidates will start with over 3/4ths of the states and electoral votes already decided (sorry, Donald, after what happened in California yesterday, your boasts of winning the Golden State will not be backed up). In the electoral college map site, 270 to win, Hillary Clinton appears to be up 217 to 191 on Donald Trump in projected electoral votes, with about 130 electoral votes in the toss-up range. That is the most optimistic estimate for the GOP nominee, however, as other polls suggest Clinton has the edge in 253 electoral votes to 190 for Trump, with 95 electoral votes in the toss-up range. Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted the 2012 Election Winning margin for President Obama has Hillary as a strong favorite. Most predict Trump will have to win the Rust Belt Battleground States while turning back Clinton attempts to win in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona if Trump has any chance to be the 45th President of the United States.
Of course, things could happen to change the dynamics, and Trump’s willingness to cause controversy while stirring things up is the ultimate X-factor. Trump could peel off enough Sanders’ supporters to win a close race in November, but he could just as easily lose in a blowout, and, in the process, cost the GOP control of the Senate and (while a longshot) maybe even the House. We will know by the end of August which way the election is heading.
So despite the negatives about each candidate, here we are. The next five months are likely to be even uglier than the last five months. I fear we’ll all need a vacation from politics on November 9th.
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