Two and a half years ago, I posted a blog piece entitled “The 4G Wireless Battle that Wasn't: WiMAX vs. LTE”. At the time LTE was only on two networks in two countries while WiMAX was across the globe, albeit in small networks. At the time, I made the argument that LTE had already won the battle before the first network in the U.S. had been created.
I bring this up because two major thresholds were crossed around mid-year, both marking a turning point in the WiMAX vs. LTE technology battle. In the Second Quarter of 2012, total LTE subscriptions surpassed total WiMAX subscriptions for the first time ever. Also in the Second Quarter, LTE provider, Verizon Wireless, surpassed WiMAX provider, Clearwire, to become the world’s largest 4G network by subscribers. And, by the looks of things, LTE networks like Verizon Wireless are growing at a exponential rate while WiMAX networks are growing less quickly or contracting as providers, such as Clearwire, begin to switch to LTE.
So, with that in mind, I’d like to review portions of what I said back in May 2010 and see where I was right, and where I was wrong:
“So why has WiMAX apparently lost? In short, the little providers oversold the hype and under produced in markets. By now, WiMAX was supposed to be nationwide in the U.S., covering every major city. So far, WiMAX has reached only a handful of cities, and Clear has even pulled out of Baltimore, the first city to deploy WiMAX. WiMAX was advertised to download at 70 Mbps a ranges up to 40 miles. Actually, you'll be lucky to get 4-8 Mbps at 2 mile ranges.”
CORRECT ARGUMENT. Clear’s WiMAX technology never really lived up to it’s potential. The RF WiMAX used in many countries severely limited the WiMAX range. And the WiMAX networks largely throttled the speeds at which WiMAX could operate for many users.
“Another reason WiMAX lost: the iPhone. The iPhone was a game-changing technology that helped people realize the dream of a mobile internet device in the palm of your hand. Why should people be forced to carry around bulky laptops, when you can get data and internet services on a small machine you can put in a pocket. Now, when you talk about 4G devices, it's always iPhone with ______.”
CORRECT ARGUMENT. The iPhone was the game-changer in 4G technology. The iPhone, and Droids changed the mobile broadband world forever. The iPad and Tablets have exaceberated the changes ever further. WiMAX phones initially gained traction on some Droid phones. But the big supporters WiMAX Droid phones, Samsung and HTC, have since switched over to LTE, making WiMAX Smartphones an endangered breed.
“WiMAX's disappointing returns have forced its providers with a tough choice: stay with the standard or jump to LTE, where support is strong, even if the technology is not quite as good from an IP perspective as WiMAX. The bigger names in WiMAX have largely opted to go with the latter, realizing that if they want to stay in the game, it's better to join the big telcos. The smaller ones might still survive, but the LTE telcos could always buy them out if they got too big.”
CORRECT ARGUMENT. Yota was the biggest WiMAX Provider in Europe, but even they realized that they had to jump ship to LTE, especially after Samsung decided to switch from WiMAX to LTE. Although the Russian government would not allow the transition to be immediate, ultimately Yota was allowed to switch their WiMAX networks to LTE. Clearwire is about to do the same thing in the U.S., beginning early next year. With the two largest WiMAX providers jumping to LTE in two of the largest countries of the world, the future of WiMAX is bleak. In addition, since most mobile devices have decided on LTE, the list of WiMAX mobile devices have shrank considerably, limiting what the small WiMAX telcos can use for devices.
“With Intel the likely big loser in all of this, who is the big winner? China. Yeah, that's right, China. For years, China has been trying to get the world to adopt a standard the Chinese could be heavily involved in. They failed with trying to change WiFi, and TD-SCDMA came around too late in the game. In LTE, China has backed a time division variant called TD-LTE, which use less spectrum than the European variant. Although the speeds will be less than European variants, the spectral efficiency makes the TD-LTE variant more attractive, particularly to current WiMAX operators looking to switch to LTE. Currently, China is demonstrating the LTE variant at the World's Expo in Shanghai, and China Mobile will launch its own LTE network soon (if it hasn't already). It will mark just the third nation to launch LTE (after Sweden and Norway). Chinese providers ZTE and Huawei have been involved with WiMAX infrastructure, and both are playing critical roles in LTE development. In fact, it is the estimation of this author that as LTE starts coming more on line, Huawei will be not just the #1 Provider of LTE equipment even out performing Sony Ericcson, Motorola, Nokia Siemens, and Alcatel-Lucent, but they will ultimately supplant Microsoft, Apple, and Google as the world's most recognized dominant technology company. It's not so bold of a prediction, considering Huawei is currently #2 to Sony Ericcson in LTE manufacturing.”
WRONG ARGUMENT. Since that statement, 130+ additional LTE networks have been launched, and not one has been from mainland China. However, Hong Kong has launched 5 LTE networks, and the TD-LTE technology that China Mobile was testing has been launched in 12 networks across 11 countries. China' has yet to launch due to two reasons. First, the Chinese government has been slow to allow 4G spectrum to be approved for use. Second, China Mobile is intent on heavily testing the technology before launching it. It is projected that at the time of potential launch at the end of 2013 China Mobile will have 200000 LTE towers ready to be activated. They intend to launch on a major scale when they activate their network and for the network to work without major issues. As for Huawei, the company’s alleged link to the Chinese government has hurt their chances to come into the U.S. and rumors of poorly functioning equipment is causing a backlash in other countries. They are not #1… yet.
“In the end, although WiMAX had a head start, the major telco backing give LTE a huge advantage and ultimately the winning edge. In the U.S., LTE is being trialed by Cox Cable, but it will be first rolled out by MetroPCS, then Verizon, and AT&T. T-Mobile will stay with 3G standard HSPA+ for now, but will ultimately go to LTE in 2013. And Sprint? Since Clear's infrastructure is what Sprint uses for 4G, when Clear decides to go to TD-LTE (probably by 2012), Sprint will join LTE then.”
MOSTLY CORRECT ARGUMENT. The launches did go MetroPCS, Verizon, and AT&T. T-Mobile is preparing for a 2013 LTE launch. Clearwire is going TD-LTE, but they will start in 2013. Sprint chose a slightly different route, however. They launched their own LTE network, separate from Clearwire, in June and intend to have their national network by 2014. Other smaller U.S. providers have also launched LTE service.
So, the 4G wars are over. LTE is the winner. And I was mostly correct in my assessments. We’ll see how much LTE grows in the coming years…
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