Over the last 4 decades, technology has been largely a battle of competing ideas. VHS vs. BetaMax, 8-track vs. cassette, Apple vs. Microsoft, DVD vs. Laserdisc, HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray, and iPod vs. everyone else. The best technology hasn't always won, and once the technology war is over, those who supported the losing side are left far behind the curve.
In the world of cellular phones, the fight for cellular dominance has been just as fierce: GSM vs. CDMA, HSPA vs. Ev-Do, iPhone vs. Droid. It looked like a fight was brewing for the next generation of Wireless Communications (commonly called 4G, even though it's not truly 4G) between WiMAX (based largely from data/internet comms) and LTE (based largely from voice and SMS comms). Supporting WiMAX has been largely start-up companies looking to expand laptop capabilities far beyond WiFi hotspots (companies like Clear, Yota, Alvarion, Airspan, Redline, but also Intel, Samsung, and Google). Supporting LTE has been the giant cellular telecoms (AT&T, Verizon, Vodaphone, Telecom Italia, NTT DoCoMo), which dictated that LTE handsets be backwards compatible with existing communication standards. A classic battle of Lilliputians vs. giants was developing, with the winner dominating the new all-IP cellular network being built for the 21st century.
It looks like the war has ended before LTE even made an appearance in the U.S.
For months, WiMAX, which has enjoyed a 2 year headstart over LTE, has been hit with serious setbacks. The global economic crisis has devastated WiMAX companies. Alvarion has recently had to lay off workers. Other WiMAX providers have ceased to exist. The WiMAX telcos are starting to concede that LTE maybe the future. Clear has openly stated that LTE is the future. In the last week, Yota, the largest provider of WiMAX outside the U.S. announced they were no longer deploying additional WiMAX services, instead announcing LTE deployments starting next year. Even Intel, the principal WiMAX player, has admitted WiMAX's future is in doubt.
So why has WiMAX apparently lost? In short, the little providers oversold the hype and under produced in markets. By now, WiMAX was supposed to be nationwide in the U.S., covering every major city. So far, WiMAX has reached only a handful of cities, and Clear has even pulled out of Baltimore, the first city to deploy WiMAX. WiMAX was advertised to download at 70 Mbps a ranges up to 40 miles. Actually, you'll be lucky to get 4-8 Mbps at 2 mile ranges.
Another reason WiMAX lost: the iPhone. The iPhone was a game-changing technology that helped people realize the dream of a mobile internet device in the palm of your hand. Why should people be forced to carry around bulky laptops, when you can get data and internet services on a small machine you can put in a pocket. Now, when you talk about 4G devices, it's always iPhone with ______.
WiMAX's disappointing returns have forced its providers with a tough choice: stay with the standard or jump to LTE, where support is strong, even if the technology is not quite as good from an IP perspective as WiMAX. The bigger names in WiMAX have largely opted to go with the latter, realizing that if they want to stay in the game, it's better to join the big telcos. The smaller ones might still survive, but the LTE telcos could always buy them out if they got too big.
With Intel the likely big loser in all of this, who is the big winner? China. Yeah, that's right, China. For years, China has been trying to get the world to adopt a standard the Chinese could be heavily involved in. They failed with trying to change WiFi, and TD-SCDMA came around too late in the game. In LTE, China has backed a time division variant called TD-LTE, which use less spectrum than the European variant. Although the speeds will be less than European variants, the spectral efficiency makes the TD-LTE variant more attractive, particularly to current WiMAX operators looking to switch to LTE. Currently, China is demonstrating the LTE variant at the World's Expo in Shanghai, and China Mobile will launch its own LTE network soon (if it hasn't already). It will mark just the third nation to launch LTE (after Sweden and Norway). Chinese providers ZTE and Huawei have been involved with WiMAX infrastructure, and both are playing critical roles in LTE development. In fact, it is the estimation of this author that as LTE starts coming more on line, Huawei will be not just the #1 Provider of LTE equipment even out performing Sony Ericcson, Motorola, Nokia Siemens, and Alcatel-Lucent, but they will ultimately supplant Microsoft, Apple, and Google as the world's most recognized dominant technology company. It's not so bold of a prediction, considering Huawei is currently #2 to Sony Ericcson in LTE manufacturing.
Another winner is Qualcomm. Qualcomm initially was looking to build their own technology called UMB (ultra mobile broadband), but the lack of interest forced Qualcomm to abandon its efforts. Qualcomm then joined forces with LTE, which was an interesting pairing. The builders of LTE did not like Qualcomm's involvement in 3G technology, so they were initially trying to avoid Qualcomm with 4G technology. However, Qualcomm had a bigger rivalry with Intel, so it actually made sense for Qualcomm and LTE to join forces. In the end, Qualcomm's chipset has become the largest chip provider of LTE gear (even more than Samsung) and Qualcomm's cooperation with Huawei has paid huge benefits for the San Diego company.
Both WiMAX and LTE had been working on a true 4G communications standard. WiMAX 2.0 was supposed to be WiMAX's 4G standard and LTE's 4G standard is known as LTE-Advanced. Both standards were based largely on LTE similarities. Yota had completed a pre WiMAX 2.0 trial in Russia with Samsung at the end of last year. However, with Yota's move to LTE, the future of WiMAX 2.0 is in grave doubt. LTE-Advanced trials are scheduled to begin soon.
In the end, although WiMAX had a head start, the major telco backing give LTE a huge advantage and ultimately the winning edge. In the U.S., LTE is being trialed by Cox Cable, but it will be first rolled out by MetroPCS, then Verizon, and AT&T. T-Mobile will stay with 3G standard HSPA+ for now, but will ultimately go to LTE in 2013. And Sprint? Since Clear's infrastructure is what Sprint uses for 4G, when Clear decides to go to TD-LTE (probably by 2012), Sprint will join LTE then.
I was looking forward to seeing which technology would emerge victorious. Sadly, due to events in recent weeks, it appears I will not get that chance.
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