13 months into the Pandemic, a Week of Consequential Events have allowed me to finally glimpse life outside of the tunnel. I have not reached the end of the tunnel, but I can see past the exit and begin to start making out what the post-pandemic world looks like.
7 days ago, I was preparing to get my 2nd Pfizer Coronavirus Shot. Of the members of my family, only my sister and a few of my in-laws had been fully vaccinated. My parents had not even received a first shot, let alone a full vaccine. Throughout my preparation for the 2nd shot, I was worried about a promise I had made to my parents. Would they listen to the pleas my older sister, Janet, and I had made to them? Could we finally get my parents to get the vaccine for a virus that was fatal, particularly among 80+ years olds like my parents are? Would I be able to see them one more time?
Ever since that apocalyptic nightmare come to life on the night of March 12th, 2020, I had approached life with a grim determination to try and slug through as best as I could. As long as Liz and the kids were safe from the virus, I felt like I could do enough to prevent the virus from reaching me. Alot of my thinking was foolish, of course, but I felt like I could counter the increasing risk. Mandating the wearing of masks helped in this cause, but never underestimate humanity's ability to counter scientific rational with irrational arrogance and stupidity. I needed a simple way of remembering how to act in public in order to minimize my risk in contracting the coronavirus.
The answer to this was a method based on a Sermon series my local pastor had done in February, 2020. It was an acronym called C.A.R.E. The acronym works like this:
C. - Confession/Contrition. As a Lutheran, one of the first things we usually do in worship is confess our sins. It is our way of getting us in the mindset of worship. Not only did I need to confess my sins before God, I needed to confess I was not in complete control of the situation. God would determine my fate, and if I showed contrition and a willingness to do what it took to keep the virus personally at bay, maybe God would provide some good fortune.
A. - Absolution. The one part of the acronym that was totally out of my control. I needed God's forgiveness and mercy to help clear my soul and head to know what to do in certain situations.
R. - Reconciliation. The hardest part of the acronym. I needed to discern who was seeking the ability to reconcile and who was not. If people were looking to listen and go back and forth with me in conversation and approach the situation with an open mind, that's who I wanted to speak with. Those who had already made up their minds and who chose not to listen... I had to realize I am not going to reconcile with those people. Stay aware from the heavy stuff with those people and focus more on light-hearted stuff.
E. - Empathy. When I put on a mask, I make the assumption that I am an asymptomatic carrier of the coronavirus at all times. So it is my duty as a Christian to protect others. I wear the mask in drive-thrus, sometimes when I am outside, anytime I enter a store or restaurant or church. I wear it because my father taught me to do things like that. I also think of Jonah, Chapter 3 in the Bible... of how the people of Nineveh reacted to God's warning that the city was about to be destroyed... how they all tore their clothes and put on sackcloth and ash. The mask has been my sackcloth and ash of sorts. In a way, maybe God is trying to tell us to stop talking and start listening again. Listening is not a sign of weakness; it is a way to reach out and find out where others are hurting. God gave us two ears and one mouth for a reason after all.
For the better part of a year, C.A.R.E. is how I have operated. It has not been perfect, but then again I am human. I have watched as others have mocked wearing of masks, not realizing it was the best option we had. They have mocked lockdowns, not realizing that we need to buy time and figure out how to implement social distancing to minimize our chances of getting the virus. Many felt indestructible; the virus has a 99% survivability, they claim. But didn't Jesus say something looking out for the 1 over the 99 in the Gospels? And who is to say you are not going to be part of the 1? I know people my age who are now or have been on life support because of this virus. Their lives may never get back to normal... and those are the lucky ones.
As of this moment, this pandemic has produced the third highest pandemic death toll in US history and one of the Top 10 pandemic death tolls in Global History. In the US, only the 1918 Flu Pandemic and the AIDS Pandemic (currently entering its 40th year) have produced higher death tolls. Over 500000 deaths across a 365-day period of time. It is nearly on par with heart disease and cancer deaths in the US. And the thing is this disease is preventable, but we have failed to do the right things to keep the toll lower.
On Monday, as I got my 2nd Pfizer shot, I found out my parents had received the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. I am not worried about them developing blood clots; I am just glad they are on their way to being immune soon. Yesterday, my wife got her first vaccine shot. We are now planning a trip to GA this summer to see my parents. Just because I will have maximum immunity does not mean I will avoid being responsible. I can't hide from life forever; the vaccine helps me gain more confidence to get back to a semblance of normalcy.
The day is coming soon when the pandemic will be declared over. That day will begin a celebration that we have not seen in a long time. A revitalization of the human spirit, blessed by God himself. Think the Carnival in Rio de Janeiro, but on a global scale. Oh, it's going to be fun. Yes, we will mourn the loss of life as well. We will need to find out what went wrong and try to make sure we don't let this happen again. That will come in time. Also, there will be a reckoning among those leaders who failed to do what is right and protect as many lives as possible (for starters, I am looking at certain Evangelical Christian leaders in the US who were more concerned with filled pews and offering plates than serving and helping in this time of crisis... they have been exposed as fake shepherds).
For now, everyone needs to still do their part to reduce the virus' chances of spreading. Social distancing, wear a mask, be smart and safe... even if you have been vaccinated. We will get to the end of the tunnel soon. The party will wait until we are ready.
Now if you will excuse me, I have a long-awaited family trip to GA to reschedule.
Sunday, April 18, 2021
A Game-Changer of a Week
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Eulogy for a Comet Titan
On Friday, September 13th, Jeffery Michael Cwiek left this earthly realm at the young age of 45. His passing, though not the first member of the South Gwinnett High School Class of 1992 to leave us, is perhaps the biggest loss from our childhood many of us have experienced. It didn't matter if you were his neighbor, his first love, his teammate, or just a casual friend... Jeff had an impact on many us, particularly those of us who grew up with him beginning at WC Britt Elementary.
We all have our Jeff Cwiek stories. Gifted with the ability to succeed at whatever he put his mind to... athletics (he played soccer, basketball, baseball, football, etc.), academics, music, and, yes, even politics, Jeff was the kind of person that seem to have success no matter what he tried. Some people could be insufferable with that kind of a gift. Not Jeff. Jeff seemed to enjoy being around other successful individuals in various areas. He made it as cool to be a brainiac as much as it was to be a jock. He seemed to bring people together in our journeys through Elementary, Middle, and High School. He may not have always been the leader, but we all took our cues from Jeff.
I first met Jeff in 2nd Grade in the classroom and on the Soccer Fields of Briscoe Park. While Jeff was clearly the better soccer player as he played forward while I played fullback, Jeff would challenge me in academics. My strongest subject was Mathematics, and I felt I was the best student in the entire grade at Math at the time and one of the best overall students. Jeff would push me in the classroom, especially in Math. It was as if he wanted me to prove how good I was academically. Somedays I got frustrated because I was overshadowed at times by Jeff's larger than life image. But I began to eventually realize that Jeff's purpose was to make me earn the respect of my peers and to have confidence in my own abilities.
Jeff and I continued to be regular classmates, and in 5th Grade, we were classmates again in Ms. Lucky's Class. By that time, it was clear that I was one of the smartest kids at Britt Elementary, though I still got into occasional trouble in the classroom. I had also developed my musical talents, thanks to singing and playing the Piano. 5th Grade was when we tried the Recorder for the first time in the Fall. Jeff could play the Recorder easily and he and I were among the best recorder players around. But it was in the Spring that Jeff's musical talents really shone through. Jeff and I were selected to sing a duet on the song "Camptown Races". Jeff was the lead-off, and I sang second. I thought I had my lines down pat in practice, but when it came time to sing for real, Jeff was ready, and I... well, I got egg on my face during the run-through with the 3-5 Grades in the audience. I blew the second half of my lines. It didn't matter that I got it right at the PTA Meeting or when we sang at Gwinnett Place Mall; I felt terrible blowing it in front of my peers. What I didn't realize is that Jeff had stumbled through his lines as well. It's just that Jeff knew how to continue singing as if nothing was wrong. I had tried so hard to be perfect, that I had failed to realize the audience didn't care for perfection. As long as you were confident, you could make the audience believe everything was OK. Jeff knew this. I learned it the hard way. Redemption would come a few weeks later at Field Day. I had never been a part of a winning team on Field Day. Jeff made us believe we could be the best 5th Grade Class. In the Egg Race, I would be the anchor of the team. With Jeff encouraging me, I was determined to not let the egg drop, and I succeeded, helping our team to a critical victory in the Egg Race. Meanwhile, Jeff would lead our Tug of War Team to victory in the main event. At the end of the Field day, Lucky's Loose Lips had score the upset win, and Jeff was the kid who helped win it.
As the years progressed and we moved on to Snellville Middle and South Gwinnett High School, Jeff continued to flourish in the Classroom and on the Athletic Field. He also got into politics as the Class President in 8th, 9th, and 11th Grades. He and I would continue to meet in the classroom, and Jeff pushed me to continue being the best. He pushed everyone, as a matter of fact. He didn't care if he faced Brent Bailey, Jennifer Iredale, John Brown, Beth Fitzpatrick, myself, or anyone else. Jeff was determined to make us prove how good we were. He made Honor Rolls, and was regularly the best player on the field. In High School, Jeff was an MVP, and a National Honors Society member. He did it all: one day he would play in a baseball game, the next day he was racing cars and stopping them on a dime for Science Team. And as for making sleds for Physics... well, maybe I shouldn't get into detail about that. When it was time to name Mr. Senior and Mr. Cometa in the Class of 1992, we all knew who deserved it. Jeff won both.
One of the great High School Memories of Jeff occurred in the Spring of our Senior Year. For three years, I had been the de facto leader of South's Math Team, winning individual county Trophies in each of my first three years. The Final County Tournament of my Career would occur on home turf and I was excited about it. For the first time, a group of my classmates joined Beth Fitzpartick and I in competing against the County's best and Jeff was there as well. There was a great picture of Jeff and I reviewing a team Math Problem. It was a perfect example of Jeff showing he could match wits with the best. I had a bad day and South did not finish in the Top 3 as I had hoped, but it didn't matter. I had the most fun at that Tournament, and it was because of classmates like Jeff lending a hand.
Of course, who could forget our High School Graduation? Because of the threat of rain Graduation night, the event was moved to First Baptist Church. The seating was tailor-made for Jeff to be the center of attention that night, even though he had no active role in the event other than walking for his diploma. He sat in the front role and high-fived multiple classmates as they received their HS diplomas. I probably gave him the hardest hand-slap of my life as I walked towards Mr. Krug. He also joined with the Senior Choir as they sang the Alma Mater song at the end of the ceremony. Finally, he lifted me up on his shoulders and carried me out of the church like I was a victorious head coach.
With all the school success, Jeff never let it get to his head. In fact, Jeff showed a great deal of respect to all, particularly the parents. Jeff always referred to my parents as Mr. and Mrs. Walker and they appreciated his gesture. Clearly, Jeff learned the respect of elders from his parents.
I want to close with two personal thoughts. First, I choose to remember who Jeff was in School, not as an adult. He could do so many things in the school days. Girls loved him; guys respected him. I don't recall him having any enemies at Britt or Snellville or South. In a way, he wasn't just the soul of our class; he was our unifying force as well. You don't believe me, look at who has come to pay their respects to him in Lawrenceville, and many more of us wish we could be there with you.
Second, particularly among those of us from the Britt Family, Jeff influenced us. We all took at least a piece of Jeff with us and many of us still carry a little of Jeff's personality even today. I catch myself once in a while acting a little like him. It's those memories and quirks of Jeff we will carry with us in the years ahead.
Jeff was among the brightest of stars, if not the brightest. Sometimes, the brightest burn so brightly that they are never meant to complete a normal life cycle and disappear quicker than other stars. But they have an impact. We mourn with his sons; his brother, John and sister, Cindy; and with his mom. We raise our glasses in honor and in memory of him.
Goodbye, my friend, and thank you. We will see you again one day in the great beyond.
We all have our Jeff Cwiek stories. Gifted with the ability to succeed at whatever he put his mind to... athletics (he played soccer, basketball, baseball, football, etc.), academics, music, and, yes, even politics, Jeff was the kind of person that seem to have success no matter what he tried. Some people could be insufferable with that kind of a gift. Not Jeff. Jeff seemed to enjoy being around other successful individuals in various areas. He made it as cool to be a brainiac as much as it was to be a jock. He seemed to bring people together in our journeys through Elementary, Middle, and High School. He may not have always been the leader, but we all took our cues from Jeff.
I first met Jeff in 2nd Grade in the classroom and on the Soccer Fields of Briscoe Park. While Jeff was clearly the better soccer player as he played forward while I played fullback, Jeff would challenge me in academics. My strongest subject was Mathematics, and I felt I was the best student in the entire grade at Math at the time and one of the best overall students. Jeff would push me in the classroom, especially in Math. It was as if he wanted me to prove how good I was academically. Somedays I got frustrated because I was overshadowed at times by Jeff's larger than life image. But I began to eventually realize that Jeff's purpose was to make me earn the respect of my peers and to have confidence in my own abilities.
Jeff and I continued to be regular classmates, and in 5th Grade, we were classmates again in Ms. Lucky's Class. By that time, it was clear that I was one of the smartest kids at Britt Elementary, though I still got into occasional trouble in the classroom. I had also developed my musical talents, thanks to singing and playing the Piano. 5th Grade was when we tried the Recorder for the first time in the Fall. Jeff could play the Recorder easily and he and I were among the best recorder players around. But it was in the Spring that Jeff's musical talents really shone through. Jeff and I were selected to sing a duet on the song "Camptown Races". Jeff was the lead-off, and I sang second. I thought I had my lines down pat in practice, but when it came time to sing for real, Jeff was ready, and I... well, I got egg on my face during the run-through with the 3-5 Grades in the audience. I blew the second half of my lines. It didn't matter that I got it right at the PTA Meeting or when we sang at Gwinnett Place Mall; I felt terrible blowing it in front of my peers. What I didn't realize is that Jeff had stumbled through his lines as well. It's just that Jeff knew how to continue singing as if nothing was wrong. I had tried so hard to be perfect, that I had failed to realize the audience didn't care for perfection. As long as you were confident, you could make the audience believe everything was OK. Jeff knew this. I learned it the hard way. Redemption would come a few weeks later at Field Day. I had never been a part of a winning team on Field Day. Jeff made us believe we could be the best 5th Grade Class. In the Egg Race, I would be the anchor of the team. With Jeff encouraging me, I was determined to not let the egg drop, and I succeeded, helping our team to a critical victory in the Egg Race. Meanwhile, Jeff would lead our Tug of War Team to victory in the main event. At the end of the Field day, Lucky's Loose Lips had score the upset win, and Jeff was the kid who helped win it.
As the years progressed and we moved on to Snellville Middle and South Gwinnett High School, Jeff continued to flourish in the Classroom and on the Athletic Field. He also got into politics as the Class President in 8th, 9th, and 11th Grades. He and I would continue to meet in the classroom, and Jeff pushed me to continue being the best. He pushed everyone, as a matter of fact. He didn't care if he faced Brent Bailey, Jennifer Iredale, John Brown, Beth Fitzpatrick, myself, or anyone else. Jeff was determined to make us prove how good we were. He made Honor Rolls, and was regularly the best player on the field. In High School, Jeff was an MVP, and a National Honors Society member. He did it all: one day he would play in a baseball game, the next day he was racing cars and stopping them on a dime for Science Team. And as for making sleds for Physics... well, maybe I shouldn't get into detail about that. When it was time to name Mr. Senior and Mr. Cometa in the Class of 1992, we all knew who deserved it. Jeff won both.
One of the great High School Memories of Jeff occurred in the Spring of our Senior Year. For three years, I had been the de facto leader of South's Math Team, winning individual county Trophies in each of my first three years. The Final County Tournament of my Career would occur on home turf and I was excited about it. For the first time, a group of my classmates joined Beth Fitzpartick and I in competing against the County's best and Jeff was there as well. There was a great picture of Jeff and I reviewing a team Math Problem. It was a perfect example of Jeff showing he could match wits with the best. I had a bad day and South did not finish in the Top 3 as I had hoped, but it didn't matter. I had the most fun at that Tournament, and it was because of classmates like Jeff lending a hand.
Of course, who could forget our High School Graduation? Because of the threat of rain Graduation night, the event was moved to First Baptist Church. The seating was tailor-made for Jeff to be the center of attention that night, even though he had no active role in the event other than walking for his diploma. He sat in the front role and high-fived multiple classmates as they received their HS diplomas. I probably gave him the hardest hand-slap of my life as I walked towards Mr. Krug. He also joined with the Senior Choir as they sang the Alma Mater song at the end of the ceremony. Finally, he lifted me up on his shoulders and carried me out of the church like I was a victorious head coach.
With all the school success, Jeff never let it get to his head. In fact, Jeff showed a great deal of respect to all, particularly the parents. Jeff always referred to my parents as Mr. and Mrs. Walker and they appreciated his gesture. Clearly, Jeff learned the respect of elders from his parents.
I want to close with two personal thoughts. First, I choose to remember who Jeff was in School, not as an adult. He could do so many things in the school days. Girls loved him; guys respected him. I don't recall him having any enemies at Britt or Snellville or South. In a way, he wasn't just the soul of our class; he was our unifying force as well. You don't believe me, look at who has come to pay their respects to him in Lawrenceville, and many more of us wish we could be there with you.
Second, particularly among those of us from the Britt Family, Jeff influenced us. We all took at least a piece of Jeff with us and many of us still carry a little of Jeff's personality even today. I catch myself once in a while acting a little like him. It's those memories and quirks of Jeff we will carry with us in the years ahead.
Jeff was among the brightest of stars, if not the brightest. Sometimes, the brightest burn so brightly that they are never meant to complete a normal life cycle and disappear quicker than other stars. But they have an impact. We mourn with his sons; his brother, John and sister, Cindy; and with his mom. We raise our glasses in honor and in memory of him.
Goodbye, my friend, and thank you. We will see you again one day in the great beyond.
Friday, August 31, 2018
College Football 2018: Ohio (State) Vs. Everything…
The story of the 2018 College Football Season is not about Alabama’s quest
for back-to-back titles… not about Clemson’s Defense which may be one of the
best D’s in College Football History… not about Georgia’s quest to return to the
Title Game for a second chance… not about Michigan finally getting the title
shot promised when Jim Harbaugh was hired… not about Wisconsin or Washington
proving they are playoff-worthy, etc.
If there are three people who best epitomize this year in College Football, it is three professional Wrestlers who hail from the western parts of the state of Ohio… Jake and Dave Crist from Dayton, and Sam Johnson (aka Sami Callihan or Jeremiah Crane) from Bellafontaine. Together the Crist Brothers and Sami form a Tag Team Trio known as oVe… Ohio Vs. Everything. They wrestle in Impact Wrestling as heels, and are very talented athletic professional wrestlers. To describe their ring attire is tough. It’s a hint of goth mixed in with hints of sadistic culture, and they act always angry and very brutal (pro tip: don't get caught alone in a bathroom with those three... especially if they have a video camera). In short, they are a perfect symbolism of the forgotten parts of the rural Midwest… the parts that helped elect a certain person as President two years ago.
Ohio State and their fans are angry this year, even though the situation is of their own making. They hired Urban Meyer six years ago thinking he would win Titles and mold men of virtue like he allegedly did with Tim Tebow at Florida. They ignored the issues of Aaron Hernandez and other Florida players who acted badly in Gainesville under Urb’s Florida tenure. And they ignored how one of Urb’s Assistants, Zach Smith, had treated his significant other at Gainesville. Zach joined Urb in Columbus, and reports surfaced earlier this year that in 2015, Zach had physically assaulted his wife. Smith was fired, so end of story, right? Well, Urban handled that situation very poorly, and there are still questions as to what Urb knew and when he knew it. A decade ago, such questions would seem irrelevant, but that was before Jerry Sandusky, before Larry Nassar, before Maryland and their issues. As reporters pressed on Urb, he gave the impression he was hiding more than what was known. Apparently, there was enough issues that Ohio State suspended Urb for the first three weeks of the season.
So Buckeye fans are angry… but not at Urb. They are angry at the University for suspending Meyer. They are especially angry at the media for reporting on this story (hmmm, that sounds familiar…). And they are angry because they (and not eventual Champion Alabama) should have been in the playoff last season. Professional Football stinks in Ohio. Lebron has left them again. Baseball is going nowhere. Now the one thing Ohio has (Buckeye football) is under siege. It’s everyone else’s fault. Buckeye fans will make them ALL pay!
So, Ohio State has a huge chip on their shoulder in 2018. And they are a wounded animal right now. And that what makes this season all about how Ohio State responds to this crisis. Two things can happen when a storm rages all about you (whether that storm is of your own making or not). You can crack under the pressure. Or you can circle the wagons and come out swinging. If Ohio State falls apart while Urb is suspended, it is likely he will be fired after the season. But I don’t think that will happen. Ohio State will take an “Ohio Vs. Everything” approach this year. I predict Ohio State will win all three games Urb is suspended. They will finished the regular season undefeated, win the Big Ten Title, and will beat Alabama for the National Title in January. My heart still wants Georgia to win it all, but my gut says Ohio State is OK with playing the heel and do what it takes to win it all. After all, Urb above all things was brought in for one purpose: win multiple titles.
For this year, O-H… I-O should be replaced with o-V-e as the popular chant in Columbus. It is more indicative of Buckeye football and their fans in 2018. This College Football season is truly about Ohio (State) vs. Everything.
If there are three people who best epitomize this year in College Football, it is three professional Wrestlers who hail from the western parts of the state of Ohio… Jake and Dave Crist from Dayton, and Sam Johnson (aka Sami Callihan or Jeremiah Crane) from Bellafontaine. Together the Crist Brothers and Sami form a Tag Team Trio known as oVe… Ohio Vs. Everything. They wrestle in Impact Wrestling as heels, and are very talented athletic professional wrestlers. To describe their ring attire is tough. It’s a hint of goth mixed in with hints of sadistic culture, and they act always angry and very brutal (pro tip: don't get caught alone in a bathroom with those three... especially if they have a video camera). In short, they are a perfect symbolism of the forgotten parts of the rural Midwest… the parts that helped elect a certain person as President two years ago.
Ohio State and their fans are angry this year, even though the situation is of their own making. They hired Urban Meyer six years ago thinking he would win Titles and mold men of virtue like he allegedly did with Tim Tebow at Florida. They ignored the issues of Aaron Hernandez and other Florida players who acted badly in Gainesville under Urb’s Florida tenure. And they ignored how one of Urb’s Assistants, Zach Smith, had treated his significant other at Gainesville. Zach joined Urb in Columbus, and reports surfaced earlier this year that in 2015, Zach had physically assaulted his wife. Smith was fired, so end of story, right? Well, Urban handled that situation very poorly, and there are still questions as to what Urb knew and when he knew it. A decade ago, such questions would seem irrelevant, but that was before Jerry Sandusky, before Larry Nassar, before Maryland and their issues. As reporters pressed on Urb, he gave the impression he was hiding more than what was known. Apparently, there was enough issues that Ohio State suspended Urb for the first three weeks of the season.
So Buckeye fans are angry… but not at Urb. They are angry at the University for suspending Meyer. They are especially angry at the media for reporting on this story (hmmm, that sounds familiar…). And they are angry because they (and not eventual Champion Alabama) should have been in the playoff last season. Professional Football stinks in Ohio. Lebron has left them again. Baseball is going nowhere. Now the one thing Ohio has (Buckeye football) is under siege. It’s everyone else’s fault. Buckeye fans will make them ALL pay!
So, Ohio State has a huge chip on their shoulder in 2018. And they are a wounded animal right now. And that what makes this season all about how Ohio State responds to this crisis. Two things can happen when a storm rages all about you (whether that storm is of your own making or not). You can crack under the pressure. Or you can circle the wagons and come out swinging. If Ohio State falls apart while Urb is suspended, it is likely he will be fired after the season. But I don’t think that will happen. Ohio State will take an “Ohio Vs. Everything” approach this year. I predict Ohio State will win all three games Urb is suspended. They will finished the regular season undefeated, win the Big Ten Title, and will beat Alabama for the National Title in January. My heart still wants Georgia to win it all, but my gut says Ohio State is OK with playing the heel and do what it takes to win it all. After all, Urb above all things was brought in for one purpose: win multiple titles.
For this year, O-H… I-O should be replaced with o-V-e as the popular chant in Columbus. It is more indicative of Buckeye football and their fans in 2018. This College Football season is truly about Ohio (State) vs. Everything.
Sunday, June 10, 2018
Coming together to Grieve Another Life cut Short...
Six years ago, I lost a close friend to suicide. Justin Ellis, who was my
best friend from 5th Grade at WC Britt Elementary through Middle School and into
High School succumbed to the demons that had haunted him for most of his life.
He was just 37 at the time of his death.
I blogged at the time that maybe I thought I could reach out to him if I knew he was in trouble. I wanted to believe I could make a difference. But in the years since, I have come to the realization that no matter what I thought I could have done, I was not in a position to save Justin. Not me, not his sister, not his true love. As much as I thought I could have tried, if Justin had made the decision to go through with things, I could not have prevented his tragic ending. Justin had to be the one to ask for help. And sometime people are stubborn to ask for help. I should know.
Sadly, another classmate has followed Justin’s path. Unlike Justin, this classmate had a great supporting group of friends and family. This person was one of our brightest lights. There was no way I thought this person could take their own life. No way, no how… And yet, here we are mourning a classmate gone too soon, again.
This classmates’ closest friends and family are devastated. Some knew depression was in her heart and wanted to help. Some knew she was hurting and tried to reach out. I am sure there are some guilty feelings out there in the Comet Community and some soul-searching.
It’s OK to think that you could have stopped this from happening. But please do not beat yourselves up over what you could have done differently. You did what you thought was best at the time. It hurts, I know. The only thing I can tell you is to remember the good about her. There was much good in her. We all knew that.
This passing is going to hurt for a long time, especially to those closest to her. The pain will show itself in unexpected ways at unexpected times. I suspect her family will never completely get over the pain. I know a close friend who lost her father to suicide some 20 years ago. She is still not over it, and she’s a pastor.
I know some of you want to help her family out and that is good. But please take some time to help yourselves in this time of pain. Grieve, shed tears, remember. Trying to work through it only bottles up the pain you are feeling and it will come out at inopportune moments. Grieving doesn’t mean you are weak. It means that your friend/family member mattered to you. It means you are human and have a heart and care. Do not worry what others think. If you need to cry, cry. If you need to get angry, do it. If you need to talk, talk. Whatever helps you to mourn. Then, when you are ready, comfort those who need help to mourn.
There will come a time when we pick up the pieces and continue on with life. But for now, let us show love for one another. Maybe it’s time we stopped worrying about settling scores and winning at all costs. Maybe it’s time we start acting like a community of friends again. Maybe turn off the voices of people who shouldn’t matter and who think of you as nothing more than a rating’s number. Listen to some music. Meet friends for dinner to talk. We could use a little more picking each other up and less tearing each other apart. The judgmental attitudes can wait for another time. It’s time to heal our broken hearts… again.
I blogged at the time that maybe I thought I could reach out to him if I knew he was in trouble. I wanted to believe I could make a difference. But in the years since, I have come to the realization that no matter what I thought I could have done, I was not in a position to save Justin. Not me, not his sister, not his true love. As much as I thought I could have tried, if Justin had made the decision to go through with things, I could not have prevented his tragic ending. Justin had to be the one to ask for help. And sometime people are stubborn to ask for help. I should know.
Sadly, another classmate has followed Justin’s path. Unlike Justin, this classmate had a great supporting group of friends and family. This person was one of our brightest lights. There was no way I thought this person could take their own life. No way, no how… And yet, here we are mourning a classmate gone too soon, again.
This classmates’ closest friends and family are devastated. Some knew depression was in her heart and wanted to help. Some knew she was hurting and tried to reach out. I am sure there are some guilty feelings out there in the Comet Community and some soul-searching.
It’s OK to think that you could have stopped this from happening. But please do not beat yourselves up over what you could have done differently. You did what you thought was best at the time. It hurts, I know. The only thing I can tell you is to remember the good about her. There was much good in her. We all knew that.
This passing is going to hurt for a long time, especially to those closest to her. The pain will show itself in unexpected ways at unexpected times. I suspect her family will never completely get over the pain. I know a close friend who lost her father to suicide some 20 years ago. She is still not over it, and she’s a pastor.
I know some of you want to help her family out and that is good. But please take some time to help yourselves in this time of pain. Grieve, shed tears, remember. Trying to work through it only bottles up the pain you are feeling and it will come out at inopportune moments. Grieving doesn’t mean you are weak. It means that your friend/family member mattered to you. It means you are human and have a heart and care. Do not worry what others think. If you need to cry, cry. If you need to get angry, do it. If you need to talk, talk. Whatever helps you to mourn. Then, when you are ready, comfort those who need help to mourn.
There will come a time when we pick up the pieces and continue on with life. But for now, let us show love for one another. Maybe it’s time we stopped worrying about settling scores and winning at all costs. Maybe it’s time we start acting like a community of friends again. Maybe turn off the voices of people who shouldn’t matter and who think of you as nothing more than a rating’s number. Listen to some music. Meet friends for dinner to talk. We could use a little more picking each other up and less tearing each other apart. The judgmental attitudes can wait for another time. It’s time to heal our broken hearts… again.
Saturday, July 30, 2016
Trump’s Real Problem with the 2016 General Election Debates…
There are so many controversies that GOP Presidential Nominee Donald Trump
(and yes, even now I am still in disbelief that he is the GOP Nominee) has
stirred up since clinching the nomination. I could go into the Conventions
recently, where the DNC’s theme was “Love trumps hate”, while the RNC’s theme
apparently was “Love Trump’s Hate”. I could talk about his ever expanding list
of people to criticize. I could talk about his challenges to win enough
electoral votes to become President. I could even talk about his unwillingness
to cede the spotlight, even when bigger events are going on. But I’m going to
focus on the Presidential debates, and Trump apparent disdain for a schedule
that was set a year ahead of the first debate.
Trump recently tweeted that it appeared Hillary Clinton was trying to once again “fix the debate” schedule to increase Hillary’s chances of winning in November:
“As usual, Hillary & the Dems are trying to rig so 2 are up against major NFL games. Same as last time w/ Bernie. Unacceptable!” (@realDonaldTrump, July 29, 2016)
Problem is, like most of his statements in this campaign, they are lies. And I don’t need to check Politifact to confirm this…
Last September, the Commission on Presidential Debates, a nonpartisan and nonprofit commission, set the schedule for 3 Presidential debates and 1 VP debate. The schedule at that time was as follows:
(Presidential Debate #1) Monday, September 26, 2016: Wright State University, Dayton, OH
(VP Debate) Tuesday, October 4, 2016: Longwood University, Farmville, VA
(Presidential Debate #2) Sunday, October 9, 2016: Washington University, St. Louis, MO
(Presidential Debate #3) Wednesday, October 19, 2016: University of Nevada-Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV
Two weeks ago, the President of Wright State announced the University was backing out of the first debate. Hofstra University, on Long Island in New York, is now the site of the first Presidential debate on September 26th.
But don’t tell Trump the Debates were set by a nonpartisan group. It would destroy his conspiracy theories he will use to attempt to skip out of any/all of the debates. Yeah, I know, he CLAIMS he is for three debates, but the truth is that he only wants the debates on his terms (and I’ll bet one of those terms is to have Candy Crowley removed from any debate panels/hosting duties).
But take a closer look: two of the debates actually happen on turf where Trump considers favorable terrain. Debate #1 occurring in Long Island is a huge break for him, because it’s a quick helicopter/limo ride from Trump Towers in Manhattan. And Debate #3 being in Las Vegas will be close to a Trump Hotel where he can enjoy his luxurious accommodations.
What Trump is also upset about is the fact that he has to share the spotlight at all. In the GOP debates, he was front and center… even in the debate he skipped for a “military fundraiser”. In the General Election, he will share time with and be off to the side opposite Hillary Clinton (and maybe both will have to share center stage and equal time with Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson). And attention may be split between sports and the debate (For the record, don’t tell Trump, but it’s likely the 3rd Debate will go up against (at least) one MLB League Championship Series, or possibly the World Series).
As I said earlier, Trump is laying the groundwork, coming up with excuses to try and overturn the debate schedule. I am already on record that the debate he most likely skips will be the 2nd Presidential debate, set for St. Louis on October 9th. That debate is the Town Hall debate (the other 2 debates will be the classical opposite facing podiums, with a defined format), and with Ferguson being a suburb of St. Louis, you can be sure the parents of one Michael Brown will be invited to attend, with a central focus of that debate being on the Black Lives Matter Movement. Trump does not want to have to face setup like that, believe me.
Trump was able to control the message during the GOP debates because of the weak format, and dealing with a number of candidates that split the focus of non-Trump rivals. There will be no such luck that Trump will be able to control the General Election Debates in the same way. For Trump, the chances of skipping organizing, and planning to win a debate, much less a General Election (like he was able to do in the primaries) is zero. And he is feeling the heat now of both.
Like I said, Trump hates the General Election Debates because he will not be the sole focus, and he's trying to overturn everything to get exactly what he wants. 58 days until the first debate seems like a lifetime away with Trump in the mix... and anything is possible.
Trump recently tweeted that it appeared Hillary Clinton was trying to once again “fix the debate” schedule to increase Hillary’s chances of winning in November:
“As usual, Hillary & the Dems are trying to rig so 2 are up against major NFL games. Same as last time w/ Bernie. Unacceptable!” (@realDonaldTrump, July 29, 2016)
Problem is, like most of his statements in this campaign, they are lies. And I don’t need to check Politifact to confirm this…
Last September, the Commission on Presidential Debates, a nonpartisan and nonprofit commission, set the schedule for 3 Presidential debates and 1 VP debate. The schedule at that time was as follows:
(Presidential Debate #1) Monday, September 26, 2016: Wright State University, Dayton, OH
(VP Debate) Tuesday, October 4, 2016: Longwood University, Farmville, VA
(Presidential Debate #2) Sunday, October 9, 2016: Washington University, St. Louis, MO
(Presidential Debate #3) Wednesday, October 19, 2016: University of Nevada-Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV
Two weeks ago, the President of Wright State announced the University was backing out of the first debate. Hofstra University, on Long Island in New York, is now the site of the first Presidential debate on September 26th.
But don’t tell Trump the Debates were set by a nonpartisan group. It would destroy his conspiracy theories he will use to attempt to skip out of any/all of the debates. Yeah, I know, he CLAIMS he is for three debates, but the truth is that he only wants the debates on his terms (and I’ll bet one of those terms is to have Candy Crowley removed from any debate panels/hosting duties).
But take a closer look: two of the debates actually happen on turf where Trump considers favorable terrain. Debate #1 occurring in Long Island is a huge break for him, because it’s a quick helicopter/limo ride from Trump Towers in Manhattan. And Debate #3 being in Las Vegas will be close to a Trump Hotel where he can enjoy his luxurious accommodations.
What Trump is also upset about is the fact that he has to share the spotlight at all. In the GOP debates, he was front and center… even in the debate he skipped for a “military fundraiser”. In the General Election, he will share time with and be off to the side opposite Hillary Clinton (and maybe both will have to share center stage and equal time with Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson). And attention may be split between sports and the debate (For the record, don’t tell Trump, but it’s likely the 3rd Debate will go up against (at least) one MLB League Championship Series, or possibly the World Series).
As I said earlier, Trump is laying the groundwork, coming up with excuses to try and overturn the debate schedule. I am already on record that the debate he most likely skips will be the 2nd Presidential debate, set for St. Louis on October 9th. That debate is the Town Hall debate (the other 2 debates will be the classical opposite facing podiums, with a defined format), and with Ferguson being a suburb of St. Louis, you can be sure the parents of one Michael Brown will be invited to attend, with a central focus of that debate being on the Black Lives Matter Movement. Trump does not want to have to face setup like that, believe me.
Trump was able to control the message during the GOP debates because of the weak format, and dealing with a number of candidates that split the focus of non-Trump rivals. There will be no such luck that Trump will be able to control the General Election Debates in the same way. For Trump, the chances of skipping organizing, and planning to win a debate, much less a General Election (like he was able to do in the primaries) is zero. And he is feeling the heat now of both.
Like I said, Trump hates the General Election Debates because he will not be the sole focus, and he's trying to overturn everything to get exactly what he wants. 58 days until the first debate seems like a lifetime away with Trump in the mix... and anything is possible.
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
The six weeks that (potentially) cost Donald Trump the 2016 Presidential Election...
Six weeks ago, Donald Trump won the Indiana primary in such a decisive fashion, the last two Republican challengers, John Kasich and Ted Cruz, suspended their campaigns, effectively ending the GOP election. At that moment, the door seemed open for Trump to begin pivoting his views towards the center, unify GOP support, and prepare for a general election showdown with a Hillary Clinton that was still trying to put away a surprising challenge from Bernie Sanders. In fact, during the last six weeks, Trump actually led Clinton in a general election match-up in a smattering of polls. And it appeared to be a wise move by Trump to visit California for several days in late May to play havoc causer in the Democratic Primary, when a Sanders win would have sent Clinton limping towards Philadelphia and the Democratic National Convention. It might have even been a little devilishly genius for Trump to appear in CA, and stir up protests by Latinos against his campaign visits in an attempt to solidify support in battleground states in November.
But instead of showing the ability to pivot, Trump played to his base and attacked many of his fellow GOP rivals, shaming them for not endorsing Trump immediately. Paul Ryan faced his wrath for a while before the Speaker of the House meekly endorsed him in late May. Susan Martinez and Nikki Haley, both diverse women who are the future of the GOP, came under attack. Trump also couldn't resist going after the Bush family and Mitt Romney, calling them losers and demanding their support of Trump.
The turning point, however, may have been Trump's pettiness in a legal matter now going through the courts concerning one of his ventures, Trump University. In mid-May, U.S. District Court Judge Gonzalo Curiel, ruled that Trump University case in California should begin in late November, which was a defeat for prosecuting lawyers who wanted to have the case begin this summer. While the Trump legal team wanted the case to begin next year, it was a victory of sorts for Trump who dodged a trial until after the election. Curiel also ruled the public could see documents related to the case. In response, Trump immediately began attacking the judge and accused him of being Mexican, even though Judge Curiel had been born in Indiana. When confronted with the facts of Judge Curiel's birthplace, Trump doubled down on his attacks. GOP leaders were horrified and Trump was condemned for being a racist on all sides. By the time Trump tried to tell the GOP to "get over it", it was far too late.
Trump's attacks on Judge Curiel also put Latino protests in CA in a more sympathetic light. I suspect Latino support helped carry Hillary Clinton to surprisingly huge victory in the California primary last Tuesday, as well as a victory in New Mexico. Bernie Sanders' last chance for momentum heading into a possible contested convention in Philadelphia was effectively over. Within 48 hours after the CA primary, most major Democratic leaders unified around Clinton, and began an all-out attack on Trump. Led by Mass. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Vice-President Joe Biden, the Dems turned Trump's attacks on Judge Curiel into a rallying cry for Democrats. While Sanders has yet to endorse Clinton, it would appear at least Bernie will pledge support for Clinton sometime in the coming days.
All major polls taken within the last 7 days now show Clinton with a small to sizable lead over Trump... even polls that once had Trump in the lead. But look closer, and you will see Trump is losing or tied in states that he must win to have even a chance to win in November. GOP strongholds like Utah and Kansas show the possibility of going to the Democrats on election day. (Clinton leads Trump by 7 in the latest Sunflower State poll, while Utah shows a tied race in a state that "loser Mitt Romney" won by 48% in 2012). Trump is trying to ignore such abysmal showing in reliable GOP states by stating he could make things competitive in PA, MD, NJ, and CA. Pennsylvania, maybe. But #1 Trump water boy, Chris Christie is very unpopular in the Garden State, there's a huge Latino voting base in CA already angry with Trump, and Maryland... Well, I live in the Old Line State, and the only chance Donald Trump has of winning it is if a nuclear bomb destroyed the entire I-95 corridor between D.C and Baltimore. He's not thinking realistically.
The last straw may be the Orlando massacre over the weekend. Trump seemed to congratulate himself for predicting such an ISIS-inspired massacre might happen, then attacked Obama and Clinton for being too soft and called once again for a Muslim immigration ban. But in the process, he also took time to revoke the press credentials for the only newspaper ever powerful enough to bring down a sitting President... the Washington Post (Watergate/Nixon). If Trump could do something that would potentially show disdain for the First Amendment of the US Constitution, what's to say he wouldn't challenge other aspects of the Constitution... Perhaps even the right to bear arms? In the past, he has called for a ban on certain guns.
Of course, things could change, and events could happen that would swing support back to Trump. And the full impact of the Orlando has yet to be felt in the polls. But it appears Trump has lost his best chance to win the Presidency and is now forced to wage the same ground game President Bush (43), John McCain, and Mitt Romney had to run to try and win the top office in the land... a toss-up scenario at best. At worst, Trump may be abandoned by the rest of the GOP leadership by the time the first General Election Presidential Debate reaches Wright State University in Dayton, OH this fall.
Funny how things can change in six weeks.
But instead of showing the ability to pivot, Trump played to his base and attacked many of his fellow GOP rivals, shaming them for not endorsing Trump immediately. Paul Ryan faced his wrath for a while before the Speaker of the House meekly endorsed him in late May. Susan Martinez and Nikki Haley, both diverse women who are the future of the GOP, came under attack. Trump also couldn't resist going after the Bush family and Mitt Romney, calling them losers and demanding their support of Trump.
The turning point, however, may have been Trump's pettiness in a legal matter now going through the courts concerning one of his ventures, Trump University. In mid-May, U.S. District Court Judge Gonzalo Curiel, ruled that Trump University case in California should begin in late November, which was a defeat for prosecuting lawyers who wanted to have the case begin this summer. While the Trump legal team wanted the case to begin next year, it was a victory of sorts for Trump who dodged a trial until after the election. Curiel also ruled the public could see documents related to the case. In response, Trump immediately began attacking the judge and accused him of being Mexican, even though Judge Curiel had been born in Indiana. When confronted with the facts of Judge Curiel's birthplace, Trump doubled down on his attacks. GOP leaders were horrified and Trump was condemned for being a racist on all sides. By the time Trump tried to tell the GOP to "get over it", it was far too late.
Trump's attacks on Judge Curiel also put Latino protests in CA in a more sympathetic light. I suspect Latino support helped carry Hillary Clinton to surprisingly huge victory in the California primary last Tuesday, as well as a victory in New Mexico. Bernie Sanders' last chance for momentum heading into a possible contested convention in Philadelphia was effectively over. Within 48 hours after the CA primary, most major Democratic leaders unified around Clinton, and began an all-out attack on Trump. Led by Mass. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Vice-President Joe Biden, the Dems turned Trump's attacks on Judge Curiel into a rallying cry for Democrats. While Sanders has yet to endorse Clinton, it would appear at least Bernie will pledge support for Clinton sometime in the coming days.
All major polls taken within the last 7 days now show Clinton with a small to sizable lead over Trump... even polls that once had Trump in the lead. But look closer, and you will see Trump is losing or tied in states that he must win to have even a chance to win in November. GOP strongholds like Utah and Kansas show the possibility of going to the Democrats on election day. (Clinton leads Trump by 7 in the latest Sunflower State poll, while Utah shows a tied race in a state that "loser Mitt Romney" won by 48% in 2012). Trump is trying to ignore such abysmal showing in reliable GOP states by stating he could make things competitive in PA, MD, NJ, and CA. Pennsylvania, maybe. But #1 Trump water boy, Chris Christie is very unpopular in the Garden State, there's a huge Latino voting base in CA already angry with Trump, and Maryland... Well, I live in the Old Line State, and the only chance Donald Trump has of winning it is if a nuclear bomb destroyed the entire I-95 corridor between D.C and Baltimore. He's not thinking realistically.
The last straw may be the Orlando massacre over the weekend. Trump seemed to congratulate himself for predicting such an ISIS-inspired massacre might happen, then attacked Obama and Clinton for being too soft and called once again for a Muslim immigration ban. But in the process, he also took time to revoke the press credentials for the only newspaper ever powerful enough to bring down a sitting President... the Washington Post (Watergate/Nixon). If Trump could do something that would potentially show disdain for the First Amendment of the US Constitution, what's to say he wouldn't challenge other aspects of the Constitution... Perhaps even the right to bear arms? In the past, he has called for a ban on certain guns.
Of course, things could change, and events could happen that would swing support back to Trump. And the full impact of the Orlando has yet to be felt in the polls. But it appears Trump has lost his best chance to win the Presidency and is now forced to wage the same ground game President Bush (43), John McCain, and Mitt Romney had to run to try and win the top office in the land... a toss-up scenario at best. At worst, Trump may be abandoned by the rest of the GOP leadership by the time the first General Election Presidential Debate reaches Wright State University in Dayton, OH this fall.
Funny how things can change in six weeks.
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
The Drive-By Autopsy of the 2016 Presidential Primary Season
We now know the two main participants in the General Election for President
of the United States. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton learned from her
defeat of 8 years ago at the hands of a young Illinois Senator named Barack
Obama, and turned back a surprising and spirited challenger from Independent
Socialist turned Democrat, Vermont Junior Senator (and I use the term “Junior”
loosely) Bernie Sanders. While on the Republican side, Democratic-leaning
Independent turned GOP Populist and alleged billionaire, Donald Trump, used
anger at the establishment in Washington and controversy to bully his way past
16 other challengers to become the GOP nominee. Both main participants used
contrasting styles to win. And while both candidates emerged victorious, both
Trump and Clinton enter the General Election cycle with record-high negative
ratings.
So how did we get here? And will the General Election play out similar to the last four cycles or be different as Donald Trump has promised?
(1) THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE: Clinton survived a scare in Iowa and a humbling early defeat in New Hampshire to Sanders, then began taking advantage of her popularity among minority voters to steamroll Bernie across the South. She also won the all the key big delegate states, with the exception of Michigan (the upset of the primaries). Even though Bernie hung tough and picked off 22 of the 50 states, Clinton never lost control of the situation and won when it counted. Bernie’s last attempt to seize momentum heading towards Philadelphia failed when Clinton scored a double-digit victory in California, thanks to Latino support. Clinton’s pillars of African-American, Latino, LGBT, and voters over 45 were stronger than Bernie’s pillars of under 45 voters, as well as crossover voters. It is expected Bernie will concede, probably after the DC primary next week. Clinton won the popular vote by about 3.5 million votes (est.) and the pledged delegate count by about 400. At this point, Clinton needs about 30% of the superdelegates to clinch, and she already has locked up about two-thirds of those, so despite Bernie’s pronouncements that he wants to take the fight to Philadelphia, that threat would be counterproductive.
(2) THE REPUBLICAN SIDE: Donald Trump used the power of the media to race past traditional candidates like Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, and others, outlasted rising stars like Marco Rubio and Ben Carson, and finally wore down Ted Cruz and John Kasich to all but wrap up the nomination in early May. Trump’s controversial statements about building a wall across the southern border and banning Muslims from entering the US played well to the GOP audience. His unorthodox style confounded pundits who believed his politically incorrect style combined with his lack of policy specifics would ultimately be fatal blows, but Trump seemed to get stronger as controversy swirled more around him. He now has the establishment GOP bending to his will, save a few outliers here and there.
Despite the dynamics and promises that this cycle will change the electoral college map one way or the other, it appears that, just like the last four election cycles, both candidates will start with over 3/4ths of the states and electoral votes already decided (sorry, Donald, after what happened in California yesterday, your boasts of winning the Golden State will not be backed up). In the electoral college map site, 270 to win, Hillary Clinton appears to be up 217 to 191 on Donald Trump in projected electoral votes, with about 130 electoral votes in the toss-up range. That is the most optimistic estimate for the GOP nominee, however, as other polls suggest Clinton has the edge in 253 electoral votes to 190 for Trump, with 95 electoral votes in the toss-up range. Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted the 2012 Election Winning margin for President Obama has Hillary as a strong favorite. Most predict Trump will have to win the Rust Belt Battleground States while turning back Clinton attempts to win in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona if Trump has any chance to be the 45th President of the United States.
Of course, things could happen to change the dynamics, and Trump’s willingness to cause controversy while stirring things up is the ultimate X-factor. Trump could peel off enough Sanders’ supporters to win a close race in November, but he could just as easily lose in a blowout, and, in the process, cost the GOP control of the Senate and (while a longshot) maybe even the House. We will know by the end of August which way the election is heading.
So despite the negatives about each candidate, here we are. The next five months are likely to be even uglier than the last five months. I fear we’ll all need a vacation from politics on November 9th.
So how did we get here? And will the General Election play out similar to the last four cycles or be different as Donald Trump has promised?
(1) THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE: Clinton survived a scare in Iowa and a humbling early defeat in New Hampshire to Sanders, then began taking advantage of her popularity among minority voters to steamroll Bernie across the South. She also won the all the key big delegate states, with the exception of Michigan (the upset of the primaries). Even though Bernie hung tough and picked off 22 of the 50 states, Clinton never lost control of the situation and won when it counted. Bernie’s last attempt to seize momentum heading towards Philadelphia failed when Clinton scored a double-digit victory in California, thanks to Latino support. Clinton’s pillars of African-American, Latino, LGBT, and voters over 45 were stronger than Bernie’s pillars of under 45 voters, as well as crossover voters. It is expected Bernie will concede, probably after the DC primary next week. Clinton won the popular vote by about 3.5 million votes (est.) and the pledged delegate count by about 400. At this point, Clinton needs about 30% of the superdelegates to clinch, and she already has locked up about two-thirds of those, so despite Bernie’s pronouncements that he wants to take the fight to Philadelphia, that threat would be counterproductive.
(2) THE REPUBLICAN SIDE: Donald Trump used the power of the media to race past traditional candidates like Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, and others, outlasted rising stars like Marco Rubio and Ben Carson, and finally wore down Ted Cruz and John Kasich to all but wrap up the nomination in early May. Trump’s controversial statements about building a wall across the southern border and banning Muslims from entering the US played well to the GOP audience. His unorthodox style confounded pundits who believed his politically incorrect style combined with his lack of policy specifics would ultimately be fatal blows, but Trump seemed to get stronger as controversy swirled more around him. He now has the establishment GOP bending to his will, save a few outliers here and there.
Despite the dynamics and promises that this cycle will change the electoral college map one way or the other, it appears that, just like the last four election cycles, both candidates will start with over 3/4ths of the states and electoral votes already decided (sorry, Donald, after what happened in California yesterday, your boasts of winning the Golden State will not be backed up). In the electoral college map site, 270 to win, Hillary Clinton appears to be up 217 to 191 on Donald Trump in projected electoral votes, with about 130 electoral votes in the toss-up range. That is the most optimistic estimate for the GOP nominee, however, as other polls suggest Clinton has the edge in 253 electoral votes to 190 for Trump, with 95 electoral votes in the toss-up range. Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted the 2012 Election Winning margin for President Obama has Hillary as a strong favorite. Most predict Trump will have to win the Rust Belt Battleground States while turning back Clinton attempts to win in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona if Trump has any chance to be the 45th President of the United States.
Of course, things could happen to change the dynamics, and Trump’s willingness to cause controversy while stirring things up is the ultimate X-factor. Trump could peel off enough Sanders’ supporters to win a close race in November, but he could just as easily lose in a blowout, and, in the process, cost the GOP control of the Senate and (while a longshot) maybe even the House. We will know by the end of August which way the election is heading.
So despite the negatives about each candidate, here we are. The next five months are likely to be even uglier than the last five months. I fear we’ll all need a vacation from politics on November 9th.
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