The End of the Post-Johnny Carson Late Night Era…

Sometime later this year, the Post Johnny Carson Late Night Era in TV will, for all practical purposes, end with the retirement of David Letterman and the departure of Jon Stewart. When Johnny retired in May 1992, many of us wondered how we would soldier on without our favorite late night host. For the last 23 years, a variety of late night hosts have tried to fill Johnny’s shoes. While no one could individually, a group of hosts did an admirable job carrying on Johnny’s tradition.

Jay Leno. David Letterman. Jon Stewart. Craig Ferguson. And a host of others showed that life moved on after Johnny. Each late night talk show host brought their own variation of Johnny’s formula with a mix of their own style to the post-11pm crowd with varying degrees of success. Leno sat in Johnny’s chair at NBC and continued NBC’s domination of late night. Letterman had Johnny’s genius and support at CBS, while more than holding his own ratings-wise. Letterman also introduced his own prodigies in people like Craig Kilborn and Craig Ferguson. Kilborn would also entertain a brief run as host of The Daily Show on Comedy Central before a relatively unknown comedian named Jon Stewart would take the reins and send The Daily Show into the stratosphere for 15 years.

But now, they are leaving late night for various reasons and pursuing future endeavors. Leno, who retired last year, is pursuing his long-time passion for cars and occasionally pops up here and there on the comedy scene. Kilborn could not handle the national spotlight for long, and was last seen back in LA doing local TV. Ferguson lost out as heir apparent to Letterman—and got paid nicely for his trouble. His future is unknown, but it’s clear he may be heard from again. When Letterman retires, he will likely follow his mentor’s cues and ride off into the sunset, rarely returning to the spotlight post-Late Show. As for Stewart, he will either move over to the director’s chair, or become a major network news anchor.

The next generation replacing these late night hosts are already taking over.  Jimmy Fallon has replaced Leno in The Tonight Show Chair, and he has backup with Seth Meyers on Late Night. Jimmy Kimmel is given ABC a foothold in late night. Stephen Colbert, whose big break was thanks to Jon Stewart is Letterman’s heir apparent at CBS. And Comedy Central will find it’s next John Stewart, though it may take some time.

There are holdovers, to be sure.  Conan O’Brien, who was once Leno’s heir at NBC is still hanging on at TBS, although I suspect he has a retirement plan in place by the end of this decade. And Bill Maher, who started on ABC before getting a weekly show on HBO is still around, though his time is growing short as well. But for all practical purposes, the first generation after Johnny is calling it a day.

How will history judge these “children of Johnny” in late night? And can the next generation prove they, too, can thrive in a late night setting, like their predecessors?  Maybe we’ll know the full answer in about 15-20 years. For now, let’s treasure the moments we have with what’s left of the post-Johnny generation before they disappear.

Why Twitter is a “loaded gun”…

Steve Czaban of ESPN Radio Washington & Yahoo! Sports Radio once famously remarked that Twitter was a loaded gun.  After a controversial tweet in late 2012, Czaban had to deal with a firestorm of criticism.  He ultimately went into a self-imposed Twitter exile that lasted most of 2013.  The point: one wrong Tweet, and you could be in the trained crosshairs of certain groups.  Several celebs have been taken down because of Tweets.  Even the most innocuous of Tweets can find you in a world of trouble (just ask Bill Cosby and others).

Two tweets in the past week hammered that point personally home to me.  One was perhaps my most controversial Tweet to date.  The other came from CBS Radio & TV Talk Show Host Jim Rome, whose Twitter’s account I follow. 

First, my tweet.  Last Saturday Morning, the funeral for NYPD Officer Ramos took place.  Ofc. Ramos was 1 of 2 NYPD Officers assassinated apparently in retaliation for the deaths of 2 unarmed suspects at the hands of police in NYC and Ferguson, MO.  And yes, my controversial tweet concerned the funeral. 

Now I know what you are thinking… I went after NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio and his apparent lack of concern for NYPD Officers, right? Wrong. OK, maybe I went after the protestor who chanted for dead cops? Nope. OK, maybe I tweeted a scathing rebuke of the NYPD Officers who turned their backs on the Mayor’s eulogy, right? Guess again.

Here was my “controversial tweet”, which I later deleted:

"Interesting note about today's funeral for NYPD Ofc. Ramos... No Westboro Baptist Church members in sight to protest".

That’s it?!? On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 was minimal controversy and 10 was asking for trouble, I felt that tweet was a 2 at worst. No hastag, No @ address deliberately trying to egg on the church. Nothing. I felt that I had tweeted much worse snark about Ravens games this season.  No big deal, right? That was. until the alleged real Westboro Baptist Church, who clearly had their rabbit ears up, came back at me.  I captured some images of the responses.  First from the alleged Church themselves, they tweeted a picture trying to indicate they were there (which obviously, they weren’t).  If they were in NYC, they were clearly nowhere near the funeral; otherwise, they would have never made it out the Queens borough alive. Then they tried to tell me I was going to hell. Then the coup de grace. They lumped me in with VP Joe Biden, Al Sharpton, and the NYPD, praying for me to stop marrying gays. I kid you not!

I found the attention these “Christians” (and I use that term VERY loosely) directed at me to be funny.  I even joked about it on FB.  The fact the WBC Cult would be scared of lil’ ol’ me shows how far they have fallen.  Once upon a time, we used to get upset when they would protest funerals, like Matthew Shepard’s, soldiers who died in combat, celebrities, and even little victims of the Newtown, MA shooting. Now, they have been reduced to coming after nobodies. They excommunicated their founder before he died because he apparently softened his anti-gay stance in a moment of compassion. They are losing family members, who are coming to the reality that their hell, fire, and brimstone preaching about gays all the time is counterproductive.

Still, I made a mistake.  I gave them something they are in desperate need.  Attention. And a reason to hate.  They probably preached a sermon about me last Sunday, thinking I am some major agent of the devil. Not my intention, but I gave them something to chew on.  So I have decided to not do that again. If they need me and others to even comment about them in order to keep surviving on hate, it is time to stop giving them attention.  If we can ignore them, they will eventually disappear—whether peacefully (as in they will stop believing their hatred) or… well, think Jonestown, Guyana and Jim Jones.

Jim Rome, stirred up a controversy of a different kind during halftime of yesterday’s Rose Bowl in an apparent reference to Florida State’s Marching Band.  His tweet (also now deleted) went like this:

“Is there anyone not in a marching band who thinks those dorks running around with those instruments are cool?”

This was a reset of a take he unloaded over 5 years ago concerning “Marching Band Guy”.  Over the years, Rome has taken on various “Guys” who think they are athletes, but are really not in his mind… Guys like “Softball Guy”, “Soccer Guy”, “Bowling Guy”, “Fitness Guy”, “Pickup Basketball Guy”, “Fantasy Football Guy”, etc.  “Marching Band Guy” was one of his last Guys he ripped on.  And I know this was over 5 years ago, because that take is older than Joshua.

Anyways, as someone who has listened to “Van Smack” over the years, who used to be “Marching Band Guy”, and who still considers himself a “Bowling Guy”, I have had no issues Rome’s takes on “Marching Band Guy” or “Bowling Guy”. He played to his radio audience. No big deal. And I saw his tweet about the Marching Band last night and thought, “He’s just looking to ruffle some listeners’ feathers up a little.” I had heard worse when I was a South Gwinnett Band of Stars Member and verbal crap was hurled in my direction coming from the Drumline and Low Brass sections during Band Camps at the GA 4-H Camp.

Well, apparently, it stirred up a hornet’s nest.

Maybe it was the fact that Marching Bands have been dealing with negative press in recent years.  Like Florida A&M’s Marching Band, whose Famed group was suspended for a year after the death of a Drum Major exposed a major hazing culture that existed into this decade.  Like Ohio State’s Band, whose decades of hypersexualized culture was exposed last year, leading to the firing of their Band Director. Like the High School Director in Alabama who turned after school tutoring of female students into his own “Fifty Shades of Grey” fantasies that the young ladies were all too eager to satisfy. Like the fact that when most people think Marching Band Movies, they think of “American Pie” and what you can do with a flute at Band Camp instead of “Drumline”.

So the Band folks snapped last night and went after the “Pimp in the Box” in such a huge way that Rome was forced to make a rare apology.  And by forced, I mean that CBS probably told him they were feeling the heat and that he was potentially costing them money.  Rome could get away with it years ago when he had his own syndicated radio network and didn’t have to answer to a major company. He no longer has that ability now that he’s ultimately answering to Jim McKay’s son.

Again, I had no problem with Rome’s controversial post, because I used to be a Scrawny Marching Band Dork who wasn’t cool. But some Marching Band people were offended.  They thought Rome was being a bully, even though some of them acted like Marching Band Bullies in High School Band.  That’s what I find ironic. And look, just because you wake up early for 5:00 am Band Practice doesn’t mean you are more athletic than an athlete. I know this firsthand. After my three years of Marching Band, I tried out for the Basketball team at South Gwinnett my Senior Year-and didn’t make the cut. The Basketball conditioning kicked my butt in more ways than anything Mitch Lavender had ever put me through during a Band Camp (a Back-to-Front Sprint--known by a more insensitive name--was considered a Cool-Down day? Seriously, Coach Mudd?)

Anyways, the Band folks can call off the hounds now… Further agitation would be just piling on.  Marching Band Guy (and probably the rest of the “Guys”) has now joined “The Rat Family” in something Rome will never bring up on air or Twitter ever again.

As I said in the beginning, Twitter (even more so than Facebook) is a loaded gun.  Choose to use it wisely. From now on, I’ll try to focus on Sports and Tech—maybe Tweet an Election Day take whenever that happens. I’d like to think those things are innocuous… But I (and Jim Rome) must realize some people will always have their rabbit ears up…

So… “What’s Popping Twitter??”

The Price of Net Neutrality (a.k.a. “Your WiFi or Your Landline” or “A Tale of Two Internets”)

Net Neutrality recently became a hot news topic when President Obama voiced support for the cause.  The issue which has largely simmered in the back rooms of technical discussions has now burst onto the scene with everyone seemingly now having an opinion—and most of those opinions unaware about the ramifications about what net neutrality means.

Now don’t get me wrong.  Opinions are nice—when you aren’t regurgitating 5-10 year old arguments for and against net neutrality.  The issue has become extremely complicated in recent years as the internet has gone from just dealing with PCs to dealing with the IoT (or Internet of Things—basically means everything from computers to cell phones to refrigerators to TVs to Smart meters to well any personal device that can connect to the Internet).  And some hard choices are going to have to be made in the near future—choices that some who support net neutrality will not like.

The next 10 years are going to be the most critical in the transformation of communication systems in our country.  The problem is that we did not address the potential pitfalls of the internet within the past 20 years and the failure to do so has now put the communications networks of this country on the brink of rolling blackouts or freezes.  Asking Tier I Cellular Companies to increase capacity but enforce net neutrality is going to have major consequences as more and more devices (perhaps as many as 50 billion devices worldwide within 10 years) access the Internet.  And with newer generations technologies, like LTE and LTE-Advanced unable to keep up with the exponentially growing demand, it’s going to get ugly soon, unless radical changes are made.  Those changes will be felt far beyond the Wireless world.

Tom Wheeler, who was appointed FCC Chairman by President Obama last year was given an thankless & impossible task: begin addressing bringing communications in this country up to the 21st century.  The previous FCC Chairman, Julius Genachowski, had laid down some pretty audacious goals in his years that Wheeler now has to develop a plan for.  And Wheeler’s boss just threw a live hand grenade into Wheeler’s lap with his net neutrality wishes. 

At the same time, younger people are moving away from the more traditional means of home communications.  Their mobile devices allow them to be free to move at will and not be constrained by certain area codes or tethered to wired Internet access.  More and more, younger people are cutting the cords and lines all together, putting strains on wireless networks, yet these younger people still demand faster and better internet experiences at the same price.  So better, faster, and still cheap.

To increase a user experience, more capacity has to be added to meet the increasing demand.  More capacity can be added in 3 ways: Spectral efficiency, more cell phone towers, and more available Wireless spectrum.  Without adequate capacity, the Mobile Internet will grind to a halt.

My thoughts on Net Neutrality are as follows: if Net Neutrality is going to be implemented, then Wireless Providers are going to have to be freed up to optimize the experience for all.  That means the following:

(1) MORE WIRELESS SPECTRUM MUST BE ALLOCATED TO WIRELESS PROVIDERS:  Obviously this meets the more Spectrum aspect that providers need to provide better service.  The Federal Government must act on the recommendations the FCC and the Obama Administration made back in 2009 of adding 500 MHz of spectrum to be used in Wireless by 2020.  Only now are auctions for newer spectrum bands starting to take shape—the first since the famed 700 MHz auctions in 2008.  What is being provided now (about 110 MHz) is woefully inadequate to meet the increasing demands.

(2) TIME TO KISS 2G & 3G TECHNOLOGIES GOODBYE… AND HELLO VOLTE:  I bet you didn’t know that even the iPhone 6 makes calls on a nearly 20-year old cellular network in the US.  Oh, it’s true.  You think a faster iPhone gives you better phone call quality?  Wrong.  For the most part, it’s still making calls on the original digital cellular technologies, such as GSM and CDMA.  But that is changing as we speak.  T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T are all rolling out VoLTE technology.  Think of it as HD Voice for your mobile device.  The calls are clearer, the latencies are shorter, and it’s a better overall experience.  But instead of having it’s own dedicated voice channels, VoLTE uses the LTE data network.  Your voice is spliced up into 1s and 0s and transmitted like data packets just like internet traffic.  Your voice in fact becomes internet traffic.  Telcos were having a devil of a time implementing this.  You see, wireless providers get most of their money from SMS messages (Texting) and Voice Calls.  Data traffic, and Video gives Wireless Providers very little in terms of profit.  So, there was no push to go to VoLTE.  But with Bandwidth becoming more precious, they no longer have any choice but to implement VoLTE.  In turn, the Wireless Providers are gradually turning off the older cellular network and recapitalizing that spectrum for 4G purposes in sort of a carrier-aggregation aspect.  Verizon is setting a 2021 deadline for ending 2G & 3G services.  AT&T intends to end 2G services in 2 years.  This will account for the spectral efficiency component to increase network capacity. 

(3) THE GAPS MUST BE FILLED IN… AND REDUNDANT BACKUP POWER SUPPLIES MUST BE ACCOUNTED FOR:  9/11, the Earthquake in Virginia in 2011, and Superstorm Sandy exposed the limitations of Wireless Networks.  If everyone tries to get on the network in the same area at the same time, the network will jam itself.  The Wireless Networks are ill-equipped at this time to handle such a volume.  Sandy exposed something worse.  In times of natural disasters, improper backup power supplies located in the wrong places could knock out networks in local areas for weeks. 

If you are going to have the best wireless networks around, you need smaller “cell towers” in heavily populated areas to offload some of the traffic with even smaller cells in residential areas.  This meets the more towers requirement without having to put giant cell towers every 500 feet in this country.  Mixing Small Cell Tower with Larger Cell Towers gives us Heterogeneous Networks (or HetNets for short). HetNet technology is not just a fantasy; it’s here & now.  All the major Wireless Carriers are deploying them as we speak.  In a few short years, small cells will account for 86% of all internet connections.  And Backup Power Supplies (think solar, for example) must be available in case restoring the network in certain locales takes time.  In short, if you are going to put a small Cell Tower on top of a beachfront hotel, don’t put the backup Power Supply in the basement where a Hurricane could flood it and short out the power.

So we have accounted for the main needs Wireless Networks have to meet the increasing demand.  But two other needs must be met in order for Wireless Networks to achieve their full potential…

(4) TERMINATE THE COPPER WIRELINE TELEPHONE NETWORK MANDATES:  AT&T, Verizon, and CenturyLink comprise most of the original Ma Bell, which had to maintain copper lines built after WWII allowing people to communicate via telephone.  In this day and age, few young people know how to maintain those 50+ year old lines.  While fiber is being used in modern networks around big cities, fiber has a nasty little aspect to it… Maintaining connections becomes more the responsibility of the end user, rather than the provider as was the case with Copper.  You see that with AT&T’s U-Verse and Verizon’s FiOS systems.  If the power goes out, you have roughly an 8-hour battery life before your home phone dies.  The Fiber network still operates, but it relies on the power of the backup battery in your home. In the old copper days, network redundancies and the low power consumption allowed phone calls to be made even when power was out for days at a time.  In fact, the Government mandated the Old Ma Bell had to maintain those copper lines as a “Carrier of Last Resort” in times of natural disasters.

But with kids moving away from the guaranteed reliable wired networks into wireless networks, why should AT&T, and Verizon be forced to maintain an aging network?  It can’t be expected to.  My guess is that if the FCC forces Tier I Cell providers like AT&T and Verizon to met net neutrality obligations, a trade-off will be made which will eliminate the carrier of last resort mandates nationwide.  In short, the old Copper Wired Telephone Network will die… and with it, most of the unionized workforce that the children of Ma Bell Employ.  In its stead, a more IP-based protocol system (what 4G LTE networks have now) will be put in place allowing for fiber and/or wireless networks to provide some semblance of continued continuity for those who still rely on making a phone call while delivering other services, such as TV and Internet to users as well.  But it will not be as reliable.  Call it a hunch, but the end of the Old Wired Telephone Network will happen before the end of this decade.  There may be still Copper Lines in Rural areas as AT&T and Verizon sells those lines off to Mom & Pop Companies.  But in the cities & suburbs, fiber and Wireless will replace Copper.

Even with ending Copper Line Connectivity, and meeting all the wireless network requirements to make the internet better, the fact is 90% of the Internet is still ruled by porn.  The thought of 50 billion mobile devices looking mostly for oiled-up naked Kim Kardashian butt pics is disturbing, but there is another solution… if people want to pay for it…

(5) A SEPARATE, SECURE, AND PAY-INTERNET MUST BE ESTABLISHED TO ALLOW HIGHER-SPEED AND GUARANTEED ACCESS:  In short, a Second Internet must be established.  This Internet will be more reliable, allow for greater security, and will allow for faster access.  No porn on this second Internet.  But in order to access this guaranteed faster Internet, you will have to pay and if you try to hack the network, you will be kicked off of the new internet.  Think of it as a tollway interstate system where the speed limit is unlimited, but breaking the rules means you can never access it again.

There are still disruptive ways to connect to the Internet. WiFi is being used now, and LTE-Direct could be an interesting way to access the Internet. But if people still want to be connected to the outside world via a relatively cheap internet, the Government must provide the tools to wireless companies to make the experience work… and eliminate antiquated wired rules.  You want net neutrality, fine.  But you’ll “pay”… one way or another.

An Inconvenient Counterexample about Elections & Money

So the post-modem about the 2014 election is largely political analysts trying to explain how they were so wrong about the polling in the final days leading up to the election.  It’s impossible to think those tea-party  extremist Republicans could have won so decisively over those caring Democrats, they surmise.  It has also focused on the Koch brothers and how these analysts claim they bought all the elections for the Republicans (ignoring the fact that Democrats have their own fat cat donors in the form of George Soros and others).  But that’s not the point…

When smart people make stupid generalizations about events that happen, I always go looking for counterexamples to combat their lazy assumptions.  This time, I didn’t have go looking far.  So OK smart-asses…

Explain Maryland’s 2014 Gubernatorial Election.

Democrats hold a registration advantage of 2 to 1 over Republicans in this state.  They have held nearly all of the top offices in the state over the last 45 years.  The last three United States Senators have come from the same reliably Democrat 3rd US House District.  Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by much more than a 2 to 1 margin (it has often been joked that the Republicans in Annapolis could hold their caucus meetings in a broom closet).  Maryland is often considered the most progressive state in the Union.

The Democrat strongholds in Maryland are focused on two areas:  Baltimore City, and the DC suburbs of Montgomery & Prince George’s Countries.  Baltimore City & Prince George’s County have a heavy African-American presence, while Montgomery County is home to many ultra-rich progressives.  Those three areas have more than counteracted any Republican insurgencies (see 1994 as a Prime example).

For the last 8 years, the Maryland Governor has been Martin O’ Malley.  He has seemingly had his way in Annapolis.  Two years ago, he successfully pushed 7 ballot initiatives through the legislature, then through referendum (those initiatives included legalizing same-sex marriage, in-state tuition for illegal immigrants, and legalizing table games at Maryland Casinos—did I mention O’Malley got Maryland voters to make gambling in the state a Constitutional mandate back in 2008?).  In fact, O’Malley has been so successful, he has decided to all but declare his intention to run for President of the United States in 2016.

O’Malley’s Lt. Governor, Anthony Brown, decided to run for Governor this year and won the Democratic primary, which in normal years would mean an automatic win in the General Election.  He outspent his General Election Opponent, Republican businessman Larry Hogan, by at least 2 to 1 in ads.  At the beginning of the year, he was leading in hypothetical polling by 18 points over Hogan, had over 50% support in many polls following the Democratic primary, and held a 7 point lead in the final Baltimore Sun poll leading up to the election.  He was on pace to be the first African-American Governor in Maryland history. No one really seemed to pay attention and just assumed it was a foregone conclusion Brown would trounce Hogan.

And yet…

Election Night came and Larry Hogan won in a decisive manner.  A few votes are still being counted in Baltimore City, but Hogan beat Brown by over 4 points or about 70000 votes.  It was the most stunning result of the night.  Democrats are struggling to explain what happened.

So what happened?  Maybe Hogan pulled Election day chicanery? No.  In fact, there were allegations that the Diebold Electronic Voting booths were registering some of Hogan’s votes as Brown votes.  Was there voter suppression in Maryland?  No.  Again, the rules are designed to favor Democrat voters—no poll tax, no voter ID, no restrictions against voters.  Maybe Hogan had more ad funding than Brown?  No, remember Brown outspent Hogan by 2 to 1.  Maybe racism played a rule in the election?  Nice try.  Hogan’s running mate ended up being the third consecutive African-American Lt. Gov. in the state.  Did top Democrats refuse to endorse Brown?  Not that I’m aware of.

So what happened?  Media analysts are still scratching their heads.  But I know what happened.  Want me to tell you really happened?  You sure?  OK, there were multiple reasons why Hogan beat Brown.  Here are a few:

(1) HOGAN HAD A CAMPAIGN MESSAGE… AND STAYED ON IT FROM DAY 1:  Simply put the message was Marylanders were being taxed too much and people and businesses were fleeing the state for other more tax friendly locals.  40 taxes were raised during O’Malley’s 8 years as Gov., including an infamous “Rain Tax” (more accurately described as a tax to create a fund to clean up the Chesapeake Bay).  People of all political stripes were getting tired of being taxed beyond their means.  In addition, some of the taxes designated for things like transportation were diverted for other purposes—legally, but it made voters mad that the legislature were pleading poverty on transportation funding after raiding those same funds for something else.  Hogan wanted to stop burdening Maryland voters with more taxes and wanted to try and make a state ranked 49th in business climate more friendly.  As for Brown, all he really offered in his campaign was expanding Pre-K education.  In the closing days, he offered to look at business regulations once elected, but it was a half-hearted gesture.  Which leads to point 2…

(2) ANTHONY BROWN RAN A POOR, SLOPPY CAMPAIGN… AND HOGAN RAN A BEAUTIFUL CAMPAIGN:  In short, Brown never took the built-in lead he had after the primary and expand that lead.  He was more interested in campaigning not to lose the election.  He had a distinctively negative tone in his campaign, attacking Hogan with distorted accusations.  It was one of the worst campaigns in Maryland history, and did not really inspire voters to go to the polls.  Instead, Brown tried to win on fear.  Hogan, on the other hand, ran a clean campaign.  Some local analysts even thought it was one of the best campaigns run in recent Maryland history.  Not even last minute appearances by the President and First Lady, who remain popular in the state, could save Brown.  Brown failed to energize his own base.

(3) HOGAN WENT EVERYWHERE… EVEN INTO DEMOCRATIC STRONGHOLDS:  Larry Hogan went across the state in an effort to ask people for their votes.  He talked with voters—not just supporters, but people who probably ended up voting for Brown.  He made an effort to reach out to African-American voters with more than lip-service.  Brown took his base for granted.  That, combined with the negative campaigning, turned off many voters in Montgomery County and possible supporters in Howard and Baltimore Counties.

(4) WHO IS ANTHONY BROWN:  Fact: No Lt. Gov. has ever been promoted to the top position in the State of Maryland.  There a reason for that:  Most Lt. Gov. have been placed on the ballot to check off the box for a special group of voters needed to secure elections.  Once in Annapolis, the #2 position is largely symbolic.  Despite attempts by O’Malley to help raise Brown’s profile, he never really gained traction as a name in Annapolis.  And one of Brown’s high-profile tasks in Annapolis ended up being a debacle.

(5) BROWN RAN THE FAILED STATE HEALTH-CARE EXCHANGE:  Brown was the guy that was supposed to help roll out the State of Maryland Website for Obamacare… and the rollout was a disaster.  First off, with all the smart people supposedly in Maryland, why was a Canadian company chosen to roll out the Website. (Editor’s note:  The reason the Health-care exchange worked so well in Kentucky as opposed to Maryland?  I believe they found the smartest people in Kentucky to help roll out the state exchange and talked to the people of the state to find out what they needed.  There may not be a “whole lot of smart people” in Kentucky, but they found the right people and their exchange worked well).  And it took a while before Maryland admitted their mistake and went with the National Website.  But it cost major money.  And since Brown was the one in charge of the initial botched rollout, he took the blame.

But maybe the last reason is the real reason…

(6 ) PEOPLE WANTED CHANGE:  Anthony Brown didn’t want to distance himself from Martin O’Malley.  And despite O’Malley’s successes in Annapolis, he was losing popularity as the full ramifications of his tax hikes became apparent.  Brown’s failure to bring new ideas to his campaign, largely campaigning for a 3rd O’Malley term turned away his base.  Even normally reliable Democratic voters switched over to vote for a fresh face in Annapolis.

Now, to be fair, Larry Hogan will not have an easy time as Governor in Annapolis.  With Michael Busch and Mike Miller still in control of the legislature, it will not be easy to roll back any of O’Malley’s taxes.  But even if Hogan is unsuccessful, it appears Democrats have gotten the message:  Stop taxing residents at will, start bringing businesses back to Maryland, and start proving you can be good stewards of the state.

The lesson here:  Money doesn’t always win elections.  Neither does an existing voter base advantage.  Having a good message and ground game can overcome the odds—and Hogan certainly had both of those.  His reward is the top position in Maryland for the next 4 years.  Can Hogan capitalize on his success and help build a legitimate opposition to the Maryland Democrat Machine that has steamrolled Republicans over the years?  That remains to be seen…

As for Anthony Brown and his running mate, Ken Ulman?  Their statewide political careers are over.  Democrats in Maryland do not tolerate statewide failures (see Kathleen Kennedy Townsend).  And Martin O’Malley’s Presidential Campaign in 2016 took possibly a fatal hit.  O’Malley may want to focus on taking a few years off, then come back and possibly run for US Senate in 2018 if Ben Cardin retires.  In the end, the Democrats will run a stronger candidate in four years to try and reclaim the top spot.

In the end Hogan was the better choice.  Now comes the hard part for someone who has never held political office before:  governing.  And as for political analysts:  I wondered if they have learned any real lessons from this election cycle.  Maybe, maybe not… But the dumb generalizations about what happened will continue.  Why?  Because it’s easy to come up with an excuse to blame something for losing elections.  That’s just the way we are.  We’re human after all.

How the Wireless World may be changing the 2014 mid-term elections… & may change every National election going forward…

We may be witnessing the true beginning of a new polling revolution as we approach the 2014 mid-term elections… something which could be factored on going forward.  With an increasing amount of people relying on cell phones/mobile devices as their only means of communications whether on the road or at home, the traditional means of polling people by using landline phones may go the way of the VCR… and it may make polling unreliable unless pollsters adapt.

In the past, every home owner had a landline phone from which pollsters could contact by using a phone book and get a reasonable sample size to determine who was going to win an election.  This, in term, helped the Democrats and Republicans identify hot races to pour money into, and dumping far fewer dollars into races which were less competitive.  As more campaign money is now being thrown into more races via outside sources, the polling indicates races turning, thus forcing national parties to throw even more money at more races.

But in an age when more and more people are ditching landline phones in favor of mobile devices, can the pollsters keep pace?  A recent poll conducted in one of the key US Senate races of interest may provide a clue.  In Alaska, throughout most of the summer & early fall incumbent senator, Mark Begich (D ), was trailing by 5 percentage points. But a recent poll, undertaken by a Republican consultant showed Begich ahead—by 10 percentage points. 

Why the change in spread?  Did Begich’s challenger make some key missteps? No.  Did the Democrat National Committee pump in major money to Alaska? Not that I’m aware of.  So what did the Republican consultant do that showed such a change?  Answer: 79% of the poll’s respondents answered the questions via cell phones. No big deal, you think. Until you realize that in Alaska the cell phone is a more reliable means of communication—because landlines do not exist in significant numbers in Alaska. 

So which polling in Alaska should be considered as more accurate:  the polls indicating Begich is 5 points behind or the one showing Begich is 10 points ahead? Can cell phone polling be used as a reliable means of predicting election patterns?  To answer that, four stereotypes must be confronted about mobile devices:

Stereotype #1: Younger people (currently those under the age of 40 as of 2014) are more likely to ditch landlines in favor of mobile service.

Stereotype #2: Those same younger people in stereotype #1 are more progressive in their political logic.

Stereotype #3: Those same younger people in stereotype #1 are more likely to vote in Presidential elections than in mid-term elections.

Stereotype #4: If you call someone on a cell phone, they will know who is calling and, unless it is a friend, they will ignore the call.

Are these stereotypes true or more myth? The pollsters and political parties that can navigate through these stereotypes to discover the truth about mobile users and how to reach them successfully may have a leg up in the elections to come. 

Is the US Senate race in Alaska the first such successful polling of cell phone users?  Or is it distorted in favor of Begich?  The answer will come on Tuesday.  But if the Republican pollster in Alaska polled the right people, his polling will be studied for elections to come.  More than control of Congress and Governors’ mansions are at stake on Tuesday.  The very future of polling voters in an increasing mobile world is as well.

Before the Cluster Days of the GCPS System… or Why South Gwinnett vs. Brookwood was once personal in Snellville

Last Friday night, South Gwinnett defeated Brookwood 44-14 for their 1st win of the HS Football season.  More importantly for the Comets, the win was their unprecedented 3rd straight over the Broncos in the and 4th in the last 6 seasons.  The “Battle of Snellville” may still mean something to the teams over 30 years after it first began, but it doesn’t come close to how personal it once was. 

It was established as a natural rivalry.  South Gwinnett, just east of downtown Snellville on US 78, was one of the original four Gwinnett County Public High School, built in the late 1950s from the same template as Central Gwinnett, North Gwinnett, and West Gwinnett (later Norcross).  It had thin, darkened hallways.  Smallish classrooms.  It had grown over time, but was 6 separate buildings loosely linked together.  Covered walkways would not be added until the late 1980s.  The Blue and Grey school gave the appearance of a blue-collar school. 

Contrast with Brookwood, located on the NW side of town.  The Maroon & Gold prototype of the New Gwinnett County Public High Schools of the 1980s (Shiloh & Meadowcreek would follow using largely the same blueprint as Brookwood).  Everything under one roof.  Cafeteria, Auditorium, Gymnasium, wide well-lit hallways, Large Classrooms… was missing some Athletic Fields for the first 10 years or so, but they were eventually added.  And that area had parents with money—or at least appeared to have more money than the rest of Snellville.

To understand why the rivalry used to be so personal, you have to go back to its birth.  Snellville still thought of itself as a small town in the late 1970s and early 1980s—around the time my family moved into the growing community.  The motto “Where Everybody is Somebody” genuinely meant something to the people of the town.  The city went to the same schools (Britt Elementary, Snellville Middle, South Gwinnett HS), would shop in the same stores, would eat at the same restaurants, would play the same kids’ sports, would worship in the same churches (except for outliers like my family who were the Lutheran oddballs in a Baptist/United Methodist dominated community, but you get the idea)…  In short, dividing the community was not something to be taken lightly.  And yet, that’s exactly what happened, starting in the fall of 1981, when that new HS first appeared at the corner of Hollybook and Dogwood...

Because of how close the town was, everybody at least knew somebody close who were lining up on the opposite side of High Schools starting in 1981.  We had gone to Britt Elementary and Snellville Middle together, and we had become friends with so many people who ended up on the other side that when we had to face each other, it felt more like a family feud than a true enemy.  And though the lines were clearly drawn, they were blurred on a daily basis of life, because we all eventually had to go to the same places.  Because the cluster system of GCPS still had yet been established in the early days, you would have these scenarios of friends ultimately get separated between Blue & Grey and Maroon & Gold when it came time to go to High School.  Much in the same way that kids who grew up at Centerville Elementary & Grayson Elementary got split up when it was Middle School Time, or what would happen later on when Richards Middle School first came on line and fed into both Brookwood and Central Gwinnett High Schools. 

I’ll give you my personal example… When my family first moved to Snellville in 1979, we had heard rumors that GCPS were going to add a new HS in the Snellville area to relieve overcrowding.  This was just 3 years after Parkview HS came online as the 8th Public HS in Gwinnett County just 3 years earlier (there are now 18 Public HS).  For whatever reason, my parents wanted to make sure that we did not go into the new Public HS, so they chose a house on the more affordable NE side of town, which kept us firmly entrenched on the South Gwinnett side of Snellville.  But, my dad knew faculty members who were coming on board to the new HS (most notably Principal Emmitt Lawson and Assistant Principal Dan Chelko, who left the same positions at Britt Elementary when the new HS came), so in a weird masochistic way, my dad and I would often interact with the “new school” throughout our lives in town.  I attended multiple Eddie Martin Basketball Camps.  In High School, my dad and I would actually help Coach Berry’s Annual Brookwood Scholar’s Bowl Tournaments.  Heck, I got treated better by the arch-rival Scholar’s Bowl Coach than my own Scholar’s Bowl Coach.

Those early years were hard, particularly for the old grey lady of South.  More times than not, the younger rival would get the better of the Comets.  There was actually a stretch of time where a kid could have started elementary school at Britt as a Kindergarten student, and graduated from South Gwinnett High School having never seen the Comets beat the Brookwood Broncos in Football.  It wasn’t just football, though.  Brookwood generally had the more athletic teams, on average had the smarter students, and got more of the state & national recognition for being one of the best public high schools around.  But one thing I will always give the Comets credit for… the eternal optimism that my South Friends and I had.  And occasionally, we got the better of our younger rivals in sports and academics.

As time wore on, however, a number of factors began to slowly eliminate the chance for rival schools to interact with each other—in particular, South and Brookwood.  First, GCPS realized that having the kids getting separated from Elementary & Middle Schools into different High Schools often had a negative impact on the kids.  So in time, the school began to form clusters.  3-4 elementary schools would feed a single middle school and one high school.  That way, friends could be kept together.  In the years that followed, the model would be readjusted to add a middle school to the cluster as well as 1-2 more elementary schools. So you didn’t have to have friendships with kids who eventually became arch-rivals.

Another thing that helped eliminate the interaction was the growth of grocery stores and restaurants around middle and high school areas.  In a way, the schools became their own communities or village.  Because it was near downtown Snellville, South Gwinnett already had major stores, doctor’s offices, and banks near its campus, so it had its own village by default.  Brookwood would get their own village established late in the 1980s and early 1990s around the Five Forks areas.  When you didn’t have to go 10 minutes to the downtown Snellville Kroger’s or Winn-Dixie and instead could shop at the one in the Five Forks area closer to where you lived, it made a difference for Bronco families—and reduced interaction with their Snellville rivals significantly.

A third thing that change was that both schools underwent massive transformations--none more so dramatic than South.  A decade ago, the Comets embarked on a massive reconstruction effort that demolished the old one-level classroom halls and raised up a new multi-story campus that matched the glamour of its rival.  Brookwood, too, has had to renovate, now that the school is in its middle 30s in age, but nowhere near what South has done.  The student body has changed too—more so at South.  South is now about two-thirds African-American.  A generation ago, the thought of a 96% Caucasian school changing race demographics that rapidly would have been unthinkable.  Brookwood has also changed race dynamics, but at a much more glacial pace.  Wealth appears to be a factor in that pace.

But the fourth and most important thing that has changed about South v. Brookwood was that Snellville got big—really big.  So big that the town motto really doesn’t fit anymore.  So big that neither school could accommodate all the new students entering the system.  As a result, another school entered the Snellville landscape in the late 1990s.  Grayson High School came on line in 1999, and its cluster sheared off the NE side of Snellville that once served as the main dividing line between South & Brookwood.  With that main border now in the hands of a third school, new rivalries were formed and the fierceness of the old rivalry lost a good chunk of its luster.  South and Brookwood still share a small border with each other, but because of the factors I have mentioned, the two schools don’t have to interact with each other the way its younger versions had to.

The South-Brookwood rivalry will never be as personal as it once was.  Many of the people who were there in the beginning are long gone, replaced by younger generations who know little about how the rivalry came to be or who interact with each other on a regular basis.  That is one aspect, much like the old downtown Snellville, that has disappeared and will not return.  In time, however, as the dynamics change and the student bodies get smaller, these schools may even be forced to merge.  It won’t happen for at least another two generations—but I may yet see it happen before I die.  I wonder how that would go over in Snellville.

Daniel Snyder’s real reason he is pissed off about the Washington NFL Nickname controversy…

Dan Snyder is increasingly feeling isolated.  Although he does not have the biggest crisis in the NFL in his own region, much less the entire country, Snyder’s stance on keeping the nickname of Washington’s NFL Franchise is losing support.  More and more people are starting to see the R-word as a racial slur.  Several newspapers, including the main paper in Washington D.C., the Washington Post, are curtailing or eliminating the use of the nickname in their reporting.  Several Sportscasters are pledging or have already stopped using the R-word (led by Washington Post columnist Mike Wise, ESPN Host Keith Olbermann, and others).  TV Shows, such as The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and South Park have mocked the nickname.  All of this has occurred just within the past year.  This is starting to turn into a similar flipping of opinions that resulted in the end of banning gay marriage in this country.

The reality is this movement of removing Indian nicknames and/or logos from sports’ teams began long before I was born.  Olbermann called for the Washington name change as early as 1978.  Colleges started removing Native American nicknames and logos from major colleges as early as 1969 (how many of you knew Stanford University used to be known as the Indians?)

But let’s take a realistic look as to why Dan Snyder’s is particularly upset this time.  It’s all about the Football Home… and the jealously that Snyder has towards his NFC East rivals.  First off, FedEx Field is not Dan Snyder’s masterpiece of a home.  He is living in the house that Jack Kent Cooke built in the mid-1990s.  Cooke moved the team from downtown D.C. to Landover, near the old home of the Washington Capitals and Bullets, just before he died.  When Snyder bought the team in 1999, Jack Kent Cooke Stadium was 2 years old, and was the largest stadium in the NFL, seating close to 90,000 fans, yet it had a waiting list for season ticket holders that was longer than Lambeau Field’s in Green Bay.  With all the modern amenities of a stadium had that was built in the 1990s, you would think that would make Snyder very happy. 

But since Snyder bought the team, all his NFC East Rivals updated their home facilities.  Philadelphia now has the Linc (Lincoln Financial Field).  While not as big as FedEx, the stadium is situated in a nice location just south of downtown Philly (next to where Veterans Stadium used to exist) and by all accounts is a very nice place to play in.  The NY Giants now play in MetLife Stadium, located right next door to their old home, the Meadowlands.  It is not as big as FedEx, but it has hosted a Super Bowl and a Wrestlemania in its brief life.

But Dan’s real problem is Washington’s NFC East Main Rival, the Dallas Cowboys.  America’s Team has built a home that matches the outrageous personality of its bombastic owner, Jerry Jones.  Jerrah’s Palace (a.k.a. AT&T Stadium) can seat over 100,000 fans, has 2 Giant video screen situated over the middle of the field, and is a retractable dome stadium.  It has a shopping area in the Stadium (a Victoria Secret’s is in there, for goodness sake).  It has hosted a Super Bowl, an NCAA Final Four, international Soccer Matches, will likely host Wrestlemania 32, and, this January, will host the 1st National Championship Game in the NCAA FBS College Football Playoff Era.

All of a sudden, coupled with the fact that Washington’s rivals have all played in and/or won Super Bowls since Washington last appeared in the Big Game and have stayed competitive while Washington has struggled since 1991, the lack of reason to support the team has taken a lot of the luster off of Dan’s borrowed home.  Even Dan’s geographic rival, the Baltimore Ravens, have won two Super Bowls since their arrival in 1996, sheering any potential fan base north of Laurel that wasn’t already supporting the Eagles or Steelers before the Ravens’ arrival.  Dan has also clashed with long-time ticket holders, has served old food and beer at his place, and has been generally combative with the local press.  Dan created his own radio network about 10 years ago, then bought out the oldest sports station in DC, WTEM, effectively neutering criticism from people like Tony Kornheiser and Steve Czaban.

And even with all that, the fact is Dan wants more.  In short, he wants his own palace.  He wants about a 65,000 to 70,000 seat facility, possibly with a retractable dome that would allow him to host Super Bowls, Finals Fours, Soccer Matches, and other big sporting events.  In short, he wants a mini version of what Jerry Jones has.  And he wants to keep the name, of course.  He has stated the name will never change as long as he is owner, which may last for a long time.

But the nickname is proving to be a big hindrance to Dan’s plans to build his own shrine.  With politicians, such as President Barack Obama, Maryland Governor Martin O’ Malley, and other top progressives in the greater D.C. area stating their support for a name change, Snyder is largely stuck where he is for the moment.  And with support at the top of the NFL now embroiled in domestic violence controversies, Dan is largely left to fight this battle without the support of Roger Goodell.

Other sports’ teams with Native American logos have started to remove those logos from their uniforms.  The Golden State Warriors long removed any Native American references when they moved to the San Francisco Area.  The Kansas City Chiefs may still have an arrowhead in their logo, but have largely removed other logos from the names.  And the Atlanta Braves and Cleveland Indians have removed logos that might be deemed offensive to Native American tribes from their main and alternate uniforms.  The Atlanta Braves have also done something that Dan Snyder would like to do:  they recently announced plans to build and move to a new stadium within 3 years.  They are also moving to an area that is resistant to change in the Atlanta area, which means it may take another generation before a challenge to the Braves nickname can happen.  Only the Chicago Blackhawks have done little to change their logo, but their logo and team history is well-known and is extremely popular.  It’s going to be a long time before the Hawks change their logo.

Dan Snyder tries to promote the history of the Washington franchise as reason to keep the team name.  But even that has been controversial with newspaper articles featuring comments from the original owner back in the 1930s contradicting Snyder’s version of the franchise history.  In short, Snyder has no moral ground to stand on and support keeping the name as is, unlike Chicago’s Blackhawks.

Which leads to one undeniable conclusion:  Snyder is facing a difficult choice.  If he wants a new stadium, the nickname will have to be changed.  Any attempts to buy property in secret and spring a surprise move will no longer happen, thanks to what the Atlanta Braves pulled.  And politicians won’t allow it to happen.  Dan can stay in the stadium he never built and keep the name.  In time, even that will be an untenable position.  Change is a constant, and the move of progressivism could mean a majority of American citizens will eventually oppose the team name.

Keith Olbermann offered a simple, yet brilliant way out for Snyder if he would take it.  Keep the logo, but change the nickname to Americans.  Doing so may garner support with Native Americans and the Progressive movement as a whole.  More and more media figures are calling for the name change.  While a tipping point has yet to be reached, it is likely to be reached soon.  Snyder wants a new stadium.  But like George Prescott Marshall before him who was forced to integrate the Washington team in order to get funding for a new stadium, Snyder will likely have to change the team name if he wants his own stadium deal.  He can try to cut a deal now.  Or he can wait… and be forced to change the team name without a guaranteed stadium deal.  The clock is ticking, Dan.  Let us know when you want to talk.