Revisiting my WiMAX vs. LTE post…

 

Two and a half years ago, I posted a blog piece entitled “The 4G Wireless Battle that Wasn't: WiMAX vs. LTE”. At the time LTE was only on two networks in two countries while WiMAX was across the globe, albeit in small networks. At the time, I made the argument that LTE had already won the battle before the first network in the U.S. had been created.

I bring this up because two major thresholds were crossed around mid-year, both marking a turning point in the WiMAX vs. LTE technology battle.  In the Second Quarter of 2012, total LTE subscriptions surpassed total WiMAX subscriptions for the first time ever.  Also in the Second Quarter, LTE provider, Verizon Wireless, surpassed WiMAX provider, Clearwire, to become the world’s largest 4G network by subscribers.  And, by the looks of things, LTE networks like Verizon Wireless are growing at a exponential rate while WiMAX networks are growing less quickly or contracting as providers, such as Clearwire, begin to switch to LTE.

So, with that in mind, I’d like to review portions of what I said back in May 2010 and see where I was right, and where I was wrong: 

“So why has WiMAX apparently lost? In short, the little providers oversold the hype and under produced in markets. By now, WiMAX was supposed to be nationwide in the U.S., covering every major city. So far, WiMAX has reached only a handful of cities, and Clear has even pulled out of Baltimore, the first city to deploy WiMAX. WiMAX was advertised to download at 70 Mbps a ranges up to 40 miles. Actually, you'll be lucky to get 4-8 Mbps at 2 mile ranges.”

CORRECT ARGUMENT.  Clear’s WiMAX technology never really lived up to it’s potential.  The RF WiMAX used in many countries severely limited the WiMAX range.  And the WiMAX networks largely throttled the speeds at which WiMAX could operate for many users. 

“Another reason WiMAX lost: the iPhone. The iPhone was a game-changing technology that helped people realize the dream of a mobile internet device in the palm of your hand. Why should people be forced to carry around bulky laptops, when you can get data and internet services on a small machine you can put in a pocket. Now, when you talk about 4G devices, it's always iPhone with ______.”

CORRECT ARGUMENT.  The iPhone was the game-changer in 4G technology.  The iPhone, and Droids changed the mobile broadband world forever.  The iPad and Tablets have exaceberated the changes ever further.  WiMAX phones initially gained traction on some Droid phones.  But the big supporters WiMAX Droid phones, Samsung and HTC, have since switched over to LTE, making WiMAX Smartphones an endangered breed.

“WiMAX's disappointing returns have forced its providers with a tough choice: stay with the standard or jump to LTE, where support is strong, even if the technology is not quite as good from an IP perspective as WiMAX. The bigger names in WiMAX have largely opted to go with the latter, realizing that if they want to stay in the game, it's better to join the big telcos. The smaller ones might still survive, but the LTE telcos could always buy them out if they got too big.”

CORRECT ARGUMENT.  Yota was the biggest WiMAX Provider in Europe, but even they realized that they had to jump ship to LTE, especially after Samsung decided to switch from WiMAX to LTE.  Although the Russian government would not allow the transition to be immediate, ultimately Yota was allowed to switch their WiMAX networks to LTE.  Clearwire is about to do the same thing in the U.S., beginning early next year.  With the two largest WiMAX providers jumping to LTE in two of the largest countries of the world, the future of WiMAX is bleak.  In addition, since most mobile devices have decided on LTE, the list of WiMAX mobile devices have shrank considerably, limiting what the small WiMAX telcos can use for devices.

“With Intel the likely big loser in all of this, who is the big winner? China. Yeah, that's right, China. For years, China has been trying to get the world to adopt a standard the Chinese could be heavily involved in. They failed with trying to change WiFi, and TD-SCDMA came around too late in the game. In LTE, China has backed a time division variant called TD-LTE, which use less spectrum than the European variant. Although the speeds will be less than European variants, the spectral efficiency makes the TD-LTE variant more attractive, particularly to current WiMAX operators looking to switch to LTE. Currently, China is demonstrating the LTE variant at the World's Expo in Shanghai, and China Mobile will launch its own LTE network soon (if it hasn't already). It will mark just the third nation to launch LTE (after Sweden and Norway). Chinese providers ZTE and Huawei have been involved with WiMAX infrastructure, and both are playing critical roles in LTE development. In fact, it is the estimation of this author that as LTE starts coming more on line, Huawei will be not just the #1 Provider of LTE equipment even out performing Sony Ericcson, Motorola, Nokia Siemens, and Alcatel-Lucent, but they will ultimately supplant Microsoft, Apple, and Google as the world's most recognized dominant technology company. It's not so bold of a prediction, considering Huawei is currently #2 to Sony Ericcson in LTE manufacturing.”

WRONG ARGUMENT.  Since that statement, 130+ additional LTE networks have been launched, and not one has been from mainland China.  However, Hong Kong has launched 5 LTE networks, and the TD-LTE technology that China Mobile was testing has been launched in 12 networks across 11 countries.  China' has yet to launch due to two reasons.  First, the Chinese government has been slow to allow 4G spectrum to be approved for use.  Second, China Mobile is intent on heavily testing the technology before launching it.  It is projected that at the time of potential launch at the end of 2013 China Mobile will have 200000 LTE towers ready to be activated.  They intend to launch on a major scale when they activate their network and for the network to work without major issues.  As for Huawei, the company’s alleged link to the Chinese government has hurt their chances to come into the U.S. and rumors of poorly functioning equipment is causing a backlash in other countries.  They are not #1… yet.

“In the end, although WiMAX had a head start, the major telco backing give LTE a huge advantage and ultimately the winning edge. In the U.S., LTE is being trialed by Cox Cable, but it will be first rolled out by MetroPCS, then Verizon, and AT&T. T-Mobile will stay with 3G standard HSPA+ for now, but will ultimately go to LTE in 2013. And Sprint? Since Clear's infrastructure is what Sprint uses for 4G, when Clear decides to go to TD-LTE (probably by 2012), Sprint will join LTE then.”

MOSTLY CORRECT ARGUMENT.  The launches did go MetroPCS, Verizon, and AT&T.  T-Mobile is preparing for a 2013 LTE launch.  Clearwire is going TD-LTE, but they will start in 2013.  Sprint chose a slightly different route, however.  They launched their own LTE network, separate from Clearwire, in June and intend to have their national network by 2014.  Other smaller U.S. providers have also launched LTE service.

So, the 4G wars are over.  LTE is the winner.  And I was mostly correct in my assessments.  We’ll see how much LTE grows in the coming years…

The end of great music…

The AMA should just be cancelled in memory of Dick Clark.  It no longer has any importance musically.  If fact, any music show not associated with the Grammys or Country Music should be cancelled.  AMAs?  Gone.  MTV Music Awards?  MTV hasn’t shown music videos in years!  VH1 Music Awards?  Please.

Why do I propose cancelling this many music awards shows?  It’s simple.  We have become a bubble gum music nation only trying to support the whims of girls ages 10-25.  Great music is rare in this country, forced to the small bars and satellite radio.  Meanwhile, stadium acts and major FM stations go to acts who can’t put together more than 20 words in a song or who whine about boys even though they might be the problem (I’m looking at you, Taylor Swift—maybe Kanye West was right when he said Beyonce was better).  The last time you saw truly great music in this country was 1997.  It’s a fact.  There was so much music for people to enjoy on the radio.  You had alternative, jazz, heavy metal, and other musical genres on the FM airwaves.  Now?  It’s news, sports talk, political talk, and music manufactured by big business types to take advantage of young girls who haven’t reached maturity.

The carnage on the airwaves over the last decade has been brutal.  Longtime rock stations have been disappearing around the country.  Q101 in Chicago, 96rock/Project 96.1 and Z-93/92.9 dave in Atlanta, WHFS in DC are just some of the stations that have bit the dust.  Meanwhile, the Twinkie stations in Atlanta now number 5.  Do we really need more Star 94 clones on 96.1?  And Ryan Seacrest of all people should know better.  I hope Power 96.1 dies a painful death on Atlanta’s airwaves, and that someday, a new version of 96rock is resurrected.

The talent of these bubble gum acts is also embarrassing.  Take Justin Beiber.  He’s just the latest creation of music executives who brought us David Cassady, Liam Gallagher, New Kids on the Block, Ricky Martin,  Backstreet Boys, N’Sync, 98 Degrees, and other similar acts.  Really Justin, you think you are going to be around in 10 years, looking like Vanilla Ice?  Hey Justin:  you’re a dime a dozen and easily replaceable.  Kurt Cobain had more musical talent in his pinky than the Biebs has in his whole body.  Justin is nowhere near the musical mastery that guys like Lennon, McCartney, Becker, Fagan, Michael Jackson, and other musicians had. 

Musical acts like Arcade Fire can’t gain a strong foothold in the US, but Rebecca Black posts a song called “It’s Friday” and everyone goes nuts over it (BTW, there’s a sequel called “It’s Thanksgiving” done by a 12-year old that makes “Friday” look like Bach).  Maybe William Hung had it right, when he showed how ridiculous music had become several years ago on “American Idol”.

I’m at a loss with this music.  So, until great music returns to the free radio waves, it’s time to turn off the radios.  At least we have iPods and iPhones to use to listen to past great music until the next musical renaissance take place…

Guilt and mourning the death of a childhood friend…

When I was trying to inform people about the SGHS Class of 1992 20th Reunion earlier this year, it seemed like many of my classmates were already invited.  I only informed a few people that graduated with me about the Reunion, and only one person that I can recall I invited was able to attend. 

There was one person I didn’t pass the information off to because I didn’t know how to classify him.  He attended South Gwinnett High School, but he left Snellville before Graduation.  His name was Justin Ellis, and many of you in South Gwinnett’s Class of 1992 knew him.  I sent him an E-Mail in January telling him I was going to be in the Greensboro, NC area in February, and that I would have liked to visit with him.  I was hoping to talk with him about the Reunion personally then.  The visit never happened, and things got too busy with my family afterwards to follow up.  He occasionally posted to Facebook during the year, but the last post I noticed was July 4th.  It wasn’t a big deal; Justin was an infrequent visitor to Facebook.  His account would go active, then deactivate frequently.  His birthday was at the end of August, and I wished him Happy Birthday.  I never got a response, and I didn’t think much of it.  As I said, Justin would go weeks without saying anything on Facebook.

On Columbus Day, I was checking my friends list.  Justin’s name popped up and I decided to check in on his page and see if he had posted anything recently.  I was not prepared for what I saw.  I found out to my shock via friends of his that Justin had died almost two weeks before the Class Reunion, and that the information provided points to an apparent death by suicide, the details of which are still unknown to me at this time.  My friend from Snellville Middle School and most of South Gwinnett High School was 37 when he died.  He left behind two kids from a previous marriage.

On one level, I guess the fact that I was ignorant of this news when I attended the Reunion was tragic, yet ironically had a silver lining.  Had I known about Justin’s death before the Reunion, I would have been in a much more somber mood.  And I feel on some level Justin wouldn’t have wanted me to mourn his passing at the Reunion.  But I still feel that had I known he was in trouble, I would have reached out to him more.  Yes, I know we say that in hindsight and it’s a crap line.  And yes, Justin and I weren’t as close as we once were—we did not go our separate ways from South under the best of terms.  But we sometimes wonder what we could have done differently to save someone from taking their life.  It’s human nature, and it sucks because survivors of a suicide can carry that guilt around the rest of their days.

To be fair, some of Justin’s demons were well-known to me.  He had issues with his Mom going back years.  He lost contact with his family.  He even lost his house and a long-term relationship because of a flood.  Yet, I did not know all the demons because Justin didn’t reveal all of them to me.  I cannot initially pinpoint anything that would have caused him to possibly take his own life.  I just pray for his kids.  I know one close friend who lost her father to suicide.  She’s never gotten over it, and she’s a pastor.  I fear Justin’s son and daughter will be scarred for life and will grow up wondering that, if their dad really loved them, how could he do such a thing.

Justin:  if you are haunting this earth somewhere, I hope you can hear what I’m about to say.  You were never forgotten, my friend, even when our friendship at South ended and you left without saying good-bye.  I was in a different place then, and I got rid of the weight that held me back.  I wish we could have seen each other before you left the physical world forever.  I also hope your kids forgive you for what happened as well and grow up to be wonderful adults, though your departure has made the survivors’ task much harder.  Finally, I hope you have found peace my friend.  Good-bye, Justin.

Time for politics and religion to stop being the only things we discuss in our lives…

There is old saying that at parties you can talk about anything except for two subjects:  politics and religion.  Yet, in this day and age, we can’t stop talking about both.  It’s getting to the point where friendships are breaking up over how people vote more than any other reason.  Don’t believe me?  How many friends have you lost over you saying something political that there was a sharp disagreement?  We’re getting to the point in politics where murder, slavery, civil war, and everything else is getting thrown into political ads-and we’re still 6 weeks away from the election.  And religion is another sore spot that seems to have merged with politics as issues such as Gay marriage, Gambling, and even Sunday liquor sales are taking center stage.  Not even Sports or Restaurants is immune from these issues.  Papa John’s and Chick-Fil-A are being boycotted for their political and religious views.  Team owners are being scrutinized for who they donate to.  It’s now to the point where they are dissecting social media habits as a way to paint you as a political type (I am not making this up!).  We even are doing studies that scientifically prove conservatives and liberals may be caused by genetics.

When you start injecting politics into everyday life, bad things will happen.  We’re at the point where we have almost descended into a Taiwanese assembly fight in this country.  This is not the United States I remember where people would help each other out no matter what their views were.  That nation may exist again one day, but it doesn’t now.

My nightmare scenario is starting to become a reality.  I predict something political will cause a major upheaval within the next decade.  The upheaval will make the 1960s look like a Sunday picnic.  People will die for their views on religion and politics.  You may think I am crazy for saying that, but it is the logical conclusion to what is happening now.

As this country becomes more polarized, I have stepped more into the apolitical realm.  I realize that after the upheaval, we will need people who can rebuild the trust in this country, if there is a country to be saved.  And I intend to support the apolitical path because we will need to find ways for people to come together.

The next several years will either prove me right or wrong.  I don’t mind being wrong.  But don’t tell me I’m stupid for thinking this.  History is more likely to prove me right than wrong, and considering we are not learning from past mistakes, we are on the verge of repeating those mistakes in the future.

How Martha Burke delayed women from becoming members at Augusta National…

By now, everyone has heard that Augusta National finally has allowed women to join as members of the private club.  Condoleezza Rice and Darla Moore have officially accepted membership in the heretofore all-male club.  It was a move that was long overdue, and welcomed by many, although with a lot of snarky remarks from supposedly “non-bias” journalists.

And the person most responsible for the most recent delay in admitting women into the 80-year club is… Martha Burke.

HUH?

Yes, you did see that correctly.  Martha Burke, the person who tried to pressure Augusta National into admitting women members, the person who tried to use Hootie Johnson as a springboard to bigger national prominence, the person who tried to bully CEOs into boycotting advertising at The Masters—likely cost women from being members at Augusta National for several years with her actions.  And although she finally got what she wanted, all she had to do to get it done sooner was… nothing.

I think it’s pretty clear to anyone with a sense of intuition that Augusta National had been looking for some time to add women into their membership.  After all, women could play at Augusta, women could caddie at Augusta, they could do just about anything.  There wasn’t anything in the rules about not admitting women.  They just needed the right women (read:  powerful and rich) to admit.  I always thought Catherine Zeta-Jones would have made a no-brainer choice as the first woman admitted as a member, but at the end of the day, it was not to be. 

I genuinely believe Hootie might have accepted women as members as early as 2000.  Darla Moore would have been too obvious of a choice when Hootie was chairman, however, because it would have given the impression Hootie was just helping a friend rather than breaking a barrier (FTR, Hootie and Darla are close friends).  And Condi was busy serving in the Bush administration in those years, so the perception was that Hootie was trying to curry political favor from W.

In the meantime, Martha Burke had just been named the head of a new organization designed to unify women’s organizations, the National Council of Women’s Organizations.  She saw Augusta National as her break-out moment of glory.  She sensed Augusta National was struggling to find the right women to extend memberships to, and she thought she could pressure Augusta National on her terms.  In the Spring of 2002, she chose to make her stand and used the media to try and bully Hootie into a rushed decision.  Hootie would not back down from the onslaught of sports journalists who sensed they could be witnessing a Jackie Robinson like moment, and even went so far as to suggest Tiger should boycott The Masters.  When Tiger didn’t, it was up to Martha to protest at Augusta.  The protest on that Masters Saturday afternoon was a disaster for Burke.  She could muster only 10 rent-a-protesters and a guy who called himself “Heywood Jablowme”.  Hootie won round 1.

After the embarrassment, Martha tried to bully CEOs into not sponsoring the Masters.  But Hootie saw it coming and decided to televise the Masters commercial-free.  Given how much money Augusta National was pulling in and how he had a willing TV Broadcaster in CBS, he could do it.  Round 2 to Hootie.

Finally Hootie turned over the reins to former ACOG chief, Billy Payne.  Billy is known as a more progressive type, but he moved as deliberately as Hootie before him.  When word came out that IBM, a sponsor of the Masters, was hiring a new female CEO, chatter began that Augusta National would finally admit her as a member.  After all, the IBM CEO automatically had membership in the past.

But Billy already had his choices in mind.  Although he struggled through the 2012 press conferences and had to deal with Martha again, though a Martha that no longer had the clout she once had, Billy made it through another Masters.  Finally, he had the breathing room to make his choices.  And they were excellent ones, befitting Augusta National.  Don’t cry for the IBM CEO, however.  Now, Billy can extend the invite to membership for her next year in a quiet manner, without pressure.

Sure, Martha Burke took a self-congratulatory victory lap yesterday.  But she no longer is in charge of NCWO, and all she can do is claim a victory she nearly squashed.  The real winner here is Billy Payne, who proved he is the right chairman to get the job done at Augusta National.  And for that, I salute the man who managed to bring the Olympics to Atlanta for once again affirming my faith that he could bring female members to Augusta National.

Jobs and Revenue, Mr. Cordish, Job and Revenue…

I don’t like the fact that the Maryland Legislator is currently in Special Session to propose a Constitutional Amendment legalizing a 6th Casino in Maryland.  It’s clear the Prince George’s Delegation has made a backroom deal to sell their souls for a piece of the limited Gambling revenue Maryland has to offer.  The whole slots idea is not a terrible plan, but the way Maryland has approached this is a total botch job that will likely never be cleaned up.  I won’t rehash the details, just go read my previous blogs about Gambling and Horse Racing in Maryland.

But right now, I am taking a tiny bit of satisfaction in knowing that Frank Cordish is watching his business dreams of Maryland Live! being the dominant casino in Maryland getting flushed down the crapper.  The same tactics he used to take the Anne Arundel Casino from Laurel Racetrack (Jobs and Revenue) are now being used against him to get a Casino in National Harbor, which will take away all Business from DC south away from Maryland Live! (Yes Rosecroft is theoretically in the running, but the bidding game has been rigged in favor of National Harbor.) 

Table games or not, Maryland Live! need only look to Perryville to see what will happen to their gambling palace once National Harbor and Baltimore's Casinos come on-line.  When the Arundel Mills Casino came on-line, Perryville lost so much business, that they have petitioned the Maryland Gaming Commission to take back half of the slots.  And Perryville has had to lay off workers at the Hollywood Casino as well.  The same thing will happen at Arundel Mills.  When the Baltimore and National Harbor Casinos come on line, Maryland Live!’s business will come from Northern Anne Arundel, Howard, and Northern Prince George’s County—that’s it!  The voters will have their say in November, but I'll predict it goes 60-40 in favor of a Prince George's Casino at National Harbor.

I voted against the Constitutional Amendment in 2008, and against Question A in 2010.  I was on the losing side both times.  I should vote against the Constitutional Amendment again this year, but after what Cordish did, if Cordish opposes the Casino, I may vote for it.  As a Baltimore businessman, Frank, you should know never to get in bed with Maryland politicians.  You’re now a speed bump for Martin O’ Malley’s quest for the White House in 2016.  Time for you, Mr. Cordish, to bend over and squeal.

Wireless Communication’s Role in Our Nation’s Future…

Anyone who does not follow Wireless Network News like I do may not understand the importance of how wireless will affect our future.  But the wireless industry is critical to the re-invention of how we do things.  The Laptop Computer, the Blackberry, the iPhone, and the Androids have changed the way we conduct our lives.  And new devices in the coming years will only accentuate our ability to conduct business, pay, and address our health.  I’m not the only one who is predicting this.  Yes, many in the wireless industry understands this already.  But I can assure you that many government officials also understand the importance of wireless.  And, according to my work program manager, that knowledge of wireless’ importance in the future of our nation starts at the top with President Obama himself. 

At a recent campaign stop in Northern Virginia, the President himself made the same case I have been making throughout this year about how the building out of the upgraded National Network will fundamentally shift the way we do everything in this country.  In the speech he reiterated how important it was to continue to give tax break to those companies that invest in wireless infrastructure in this country.  It’s interesting to note that in a recent study, AT&T and Verizon were 1-2 in terms of which companies invested in US infrastructure.  Considering that both companies are in the middle of a massive next-generation wireless build-out (with Sprint now joining the build-out with their long awaited Network Vision plans), it’s impossible to imagine that AT&T and Verizon will not maintain that infrastructure standing this year.  So, we’ll see if the President lives up to his word on this.

After WWII, the US built the best wireline phone service in the world, thanks in large part to returning US veterans.  Now, the US has joined the wireless revolution, and intends to build to best wireless communications network in the world.  With the US leading the LTE charge worldwide, the new wireless network (combined with WiFi technology to offset use in homes) will transform our lives.  It may also provide a way for unemployment to get below 8 percent in time for the election, giving the President a chance to win a second term.

The FCC’s standings on wireless is mixed.  It would appear the FCC understands the wireless revolution is at hand, but the speed at which the Government will react will determine whether Government will help or hinder the wireless industry.  Recent ruling against AT&T would give the impression of some resistance, but without the full story, there is no way to know for sure.  There’s also no information about how Mitt Romney views the future of wireless.  I would suspect he would have to be foolish not to see the wireless revolution as a positive. 

The fact that the President and I are seeing the same path is encouraging, but I still have criticism for the Commander-in-Chief.  “Uh, Mr. President, about that Blackberry you use…”