The realignment of the big college conferences

So the cannibalization of the Big 12 has begun with Nebraska and Colorado realigning to the Big 10 (or should we now call them the Big 12) and Pac-10 respectively.  The question is how will this all end and what will the Big conferences look like after the carnage.

Here’s one scenario on how this will all play out:  Let’s assume Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech all join the Pac-10 as well.  The 16th team to the Pac-10 would either be Utah or Texas A&M with Utah being the backup plan if A&M goes to the SEC.  Let’s also assume Missouri joins Nebraska in the Big Ten.  That leaves Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor for either the Mountain West or Conference USA to scoop up.

Let’s also assume that in addition to Nebraska and Missouri, the Big Ten also adds Notre Dame.  Then the question is whether the Big Ten would be happy with 14 or would like to expand to 16.  If they want 16, the guess is that they will further raid the Big East adding Syracuse and either Pittsburgh, Rutgers, or West Virginia.  That would then set in motion the beginning of the end of the Big East.

The ACC would not be free of pillaging either as the SEC will not stand idly by.  If the other conference go to 16 teams, the SEC will follow suit.  So who becomes the SEC’s next four?  Assuming A&M does NOT join the SEC, the selection is easy.  First, Florida State and Georgia Tech make the most geographical sense.  Also, Clemson makes some sense as well.  The final team comes down to either Miami or Louisville.  My guess is Louisville will be that final team, because the ACC will make sure Miami stays. 

The ACC will then pick apart the rest of the Big East adding South Florida, the two losers in the Big Ten Beauty contest of Pitt, West Virginia, and Rutgers, Connecticut, and Cincinnati to reach 14.  Throw in Georgetown and Villanova in Basketball and you now have 16 for Basketball.  The remaining Big East schools (which only play conference Basketball) would realign to the Atlantic 10, Horizon (Marquette), or Conference USA.

Whether this new group of super-conferences (ACC, SEC, Big 16, and Pac 16, plus a super-size Mountain West) will help or hurt NCAA Sports remain to be seen.  Still, what is going to happen in the next few years will prove interesting.

Is Thomas Wolfe Right?

Thomas Wolfe (the writer from the early part of the 20th century) summed it up nicely in the words of his character George Webber: "You can't go back home to your family, back home to your childhood ... back home to a young man's dreams of glory and of fame ... back home to places in the country, back home to the old forms and systems of things which once seemed everlasting but which are changing all the time — back home to the escapes of Time and Memory."

It's been over four years since I last went home to Georgia. In those four plus years, a lot has changed in my life and in the life of Snellville (from what I can gather). From my perspective, I've gotten married, traveled across much of this great country and around the world, experienced locations I've never been to, and become a father. From Snellville's perspective, new shopping locations, a new city hall, a more decentralized downtown, and a changing, more diverse population has given the town a new look and feel.

How will I feel when I return to Snellville this September? The Snellville I knew and loved as a kid is forever gone, replaced by this new larger version of an Atlanta suburb. Joshua and Liz will never see what I saw in the town that made this city great. No Snellville Day parades going down Main Street. No rural farmland just outside of town. No small town feel. A high school that has completely changed. I can only convey how this town looked in the 1980s as I grew up without showing it. And what will the people who remember me as a kid think of me upon my return now that I am a father and husband? They'll see certain flashes of the old me, but it will be a person shaped by years of Chicago and Baltimore experiences and not Snellville ones.

One thing is for sure: this will be the most interesting trip I have ever had going back to the town I grew up in.

The 4G Wireless Battle that Wasn't: WiMAX vs. LTE

Over the last 4 decades, technology has been largely a battle of competing ideas. VHS vs. BetaMax, 8-track vs. cassette, Apple vs. Microsoft, DVD vs. Laserdisc, HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray, and iPod vs. everyone else. The best technology hasn't always won, and once the technology war is over, those who supported the losing side are left far behind the curve.

In the world of cellular phones, the fight for cellular dominance has been just as fierce: GSM vs. CDMA, HSPA vs. Ev-Do, iPhone vs. Droid. It looked like a fight was brewing for the next generation of Wireless Communications (commonly called 4G, even though it's not truly 4G) between WiMAX (based largely from data/internet comms) and LTE (based largely from voice and SMS comms). Supporting WiMAX has been largely start-up companies looking to expand laptop capabilities far beyond WiFi hotspots (companies like Clear, Yota, Alvarion, Airspan, Redline, but also Intel, Samsung, and Google). Supporting LTE has been the giant cellular telecoms (AT&T, Verizon, Vodaphone, Telecom Italia, NTT DoCoMo), which dictated that LTE handsets be backwards compatible with existing communication standards. A classic battle of Lilliputians vs. giants was developing, with the winner dominating the new all-IP cellular network being built for the 21st century.

It looks like the war has ended before LTE even made an appearance in the U.S.

For months, WiMAX, which has enjoyed a 2 year headstart over LTE, has been hit with serious setbacks. The global economic crisis has devastated WiMAX companies. Alvarion has recently had to lay off workers. Other WiMAX providers have ceased to exist. The WiMAX telcos are starting to concede that LTE maybe the future. Clear has openly stated that LTE is the future. In the last week, Yota, the largest provider of WiMAX outside the U.S. announced they were no longer deploying additional WiMAX services, instead announcing LTE deployments starting next year. Even Intel, the principal WiMAX player, has admitted WiMAX's future is in doubt.

So why has WiMAX apparently lost? In short, the little providers oversold the hype and under produced in markets. By now, WiMAX was supposed to be nationwide in the U.S., covering every major city. So far, WiMAX has reached only a handful of cities, and Clear has even pulled out of Baltimore, the first city to deploy WiMAX. WiMAX was advertised to download at 70 Mbps a ranges up to 40 miles. Actually, you'll be lucky to get 4-8 Mbps at 2 mile ranges.

Another reason WiMAX lost: the iPhone. The iPhone was a game-changing technology that helped people realize the dream of a mobile internet device in the palm of your hand. Why should people be forced to carry around bulky laptops, when you can get data and internet services on a small machine you can put in a pocket. Now, when you talk about 4G devices, it's always iPhone with ______.

WiMAX's disappointing returns have forced its providers with a tough choice: stay with the standard or jump to LTE, where support is strong, even if the technology is not quite as good from an IP perspective as WiMAX. The bigger names in WiMAX have largely opted to go with the latter, realizing that if they want to stay in the game, it's better to join the big telcos. The smaller ones might still survive, but the LTE telcos could always buy them out if they got too big.

With Intel the likely big loser in all of this, who is the big winner? China. Yeah, that's right, China. For years, China has been trying to get the world to adopt a standard the Chinese could be heavily involved in. They failed with trying to change WiFi, and TD-SCDMA came around too late in the game. In LTE, China has backed a time division variant called TD-LTE, which use less spectrum than the European variant. Although the speeds will be less than European variants, the spectral efficiency makes the TD-LTE variant more attractive, particularly to current WiMAX operators looking to switch to LTE. Currently, China is demonstrating the LTE variant at the World's Expo in Shanghai, and China Mobile will launch its own LTE network soon (if it hasn't already). It will mark just the third nation to launch LTE (after Sweden and Norway). Chinese providers ZTE and Huawei have been involved with WiMAX infrastructure, and both are playing critical roles in LTE development. In fact, it is the estimation of this author that as LTE starts coming more on line, Huawei will be not just the #1 Provider of LTE equipment even out performing Sony Ericcson, Motorola, Nokia Siemens, and Alcatel-Lucent, but they will ultimately supplant Microsoft, Apple, and Google as the world's most recognized dominant technology company. It's not so bold of a prediction, considering Huawei is currently #2 to Sony Ericcson in LTE manufacturing.

Another winner is Qualcomm. Qualcomm initially was looking to build their own technology called UMB (ultra mobile broadband), but the lack of interest forced Qualcomm to abandon its efforts. Qualcomm then joined forces with LTE, which was an interesting pairing. The builders of LTE did not like Qualcomm's involvement in 3G technology, so they were initially trying to avoid Qualcomm with 4G technology. However, Qualcomm had a bigger rivalry with Intel, so it actually made sense for Qualcomm and LTE to join forces. In the end, Qualcomm's chipset has become the largest chip provider of LTE gear (even more than Samsung) and Qualcomm's cooperation with Huawei has paid huge benefits for the San Diego company.

Both WiMAX and LTE had been working on a true 4G communications standard. WiMAX 2.0 was supposed to be WiMAX's 4G standard and LTE's 4G standard is known as LTE-Advanced. Both standards were based largely on LTE similarities. Yota had completed a pre WiMAX 2.0 trial in Russia with Samsung at the end of last year. However, with Yota's move to LTE, the future of WiMAX 2.0 is in grave doubt. LTE-Advanced trials are scheduled to begin soon.

In the end, although WiMAX had a head start, the major telco backing give LTE a huge advantage and ultimately the winning edge. In the U.S., LTE is being trialed by Cox Cable, but it will be first rolled out by MetroPCS, then Verizon, and AT&T. T-Mobile will stay with 3G standard HSPA+ for now, but will ultimately go to LTE in 2013. And Sprint? Since Clear's infrastructure is what Sprint uses for 4G, when Clear decides to go to TD-LTE (probably by 2012), Sprint will join LTE then.

I was looking forward to seeing which technology would emerge victorious. Sadly, due to events in recent weeks, it appears I will not get that chance.

The Flooding in Nashville

Today's Brief Rogue Corner will focus on one of the biggest stories that has not been covered in recent weeks. Several weeks ago around the time of the Kentucky Derby, central Tennessee was inundated with up to 15 inches of rain in a short period of time. The creeks, streams, and the Cumberland River flooded to record levels. Many of Nashville's famous landmarks flooded, including the Grand Old Opry, and LP Field. The Opryland Hotel and Opry Mills were for all practical purposes destroyed. As of the last report, up to 30 people were killed, and there were reports of others missing. Total damage was estimated at over $1.5 billion. Many people do not have flood insurance because no one thought a flood like this could happen. This is now the third southern U.S. metropolis to experience major flooding in 5 years, joining Atlanta in September, and New Orleans back in 2005.

Yet, unlike the Atlanta and New Orleans floods, you haven't heard much about the story. Obviously, the whole world focused on New Orleans with Katrina. And Atlanta is the home to CNN and The Weather Channel, so the story has personal implications for the reporters. But Nashville... When National folks think of Nashville, they think Country music, which means rednecks. And why in this day and age would anyone care about a city dominated by perceived hillbillies?

Some have speculated that Nashville didn't get enough coverage because there was no political angle to it. At the time, the Arizona Immigration Bill and Gulf Oil Spill dominated the headlines. Some reporters said that because the flooding had no political thread (unlike the other two stories), no media person was interested in it. OK, this city is reportedly the home of Al Gore, who screams about global warming, a natural disaster strikes that could be blamed on climate change, and no one wants to even visit his house and cover it?

Fortunately, the people of Tennessee have responded to the challenge. They are not waiting for the Fed to bail out the state. They are actually trying to pick up the pieces by the themselves and recover. They held a telethon recently to help raise over $1.5 million. The country stars also pitched in to help. And amazingly, not one of them blamed the government for not caring. In the end, I believe the people of middle Tennessee will make a complete recovery. I hope I get a chance to go back down to Nashville one day and help support the folks by spending money.

Wine in the Woods Recap

The third weekend in May should be renamed Maryland weekend. The events that occur in Maryland during this weekend are always well attended. Usually the Nationals and/or Orioles are in town for a weekend series. The first round of the NCAA Lacrosse always features multiple teams from the D.C. and Baltimore area. Of course, the big horse race at Pimlico will draw a number of people. But increasingly, it appears that the Preakness is losing people to an event that keeps drawing more and more people to Columbia, MD. The Wine in the Woods Weekend festival is becoming so popular, that as my wife and I left yesterday in mid-afternoon, there were still hundreds of people trying to work their way into the festival, even though the event closes Saturday and Sunday at 6 pm.

The festival is now in its 18th year and it keeps getting more bigger and better. This year, over 30 Maryland wineries set up tents in the Symphony Woods area in-between Columbia Mall and Merriweather Post Pavilion. Crowds thronged to each of the tents to taste this years version of the Maryland harvest. In addition, local restaurants and shops set up tents allowing souvenior purchases. Entertainment also was present as guys dressed up as statues, musical acts, and stilt people were sprinkled across the woods. The fee of $30 covered unlimited tastings of regular wines (desert and reserve wines cost $1 for tastings). You could also purchases glasses and full bottles of wine to enjoy in the woods. A much larger section of the Woods area was opened up, and even that area was filled to capacity.

Certain wineries bring forward some special wines for the festival that you can't purchase in stores. Elk Run makes a Maryland Sangria that is very popular with the masses. Other wineries bring forward special reserves just for this weekend. Saint Michael's produces a Chocolate Zin and Serpent Ridge Vineyards had a special Cab reserve. Though Maryland Wines will probably never match the fame of California wines or their neighbor Virginia's wines, Maryland wines are growing in award recognition and popularity.

From a personal standpoint, Wine in the Woods has definite advantages over the debauchery in the Preakness infield. For one thing, you are limited to one type of beer that you can drink at Pimlico (provided that the Preakness doesn't run out), while Wine in the Woods has hundreds of wines you can enjoy. If you can't find at least a couple of wines you like, you aren't trying. A second advantage is the clientele. In the Preakness infield, the area is dominated with 20-somethings (mostly guys), while Wine in the Woods draws all ages of adults and has a clear female advantage. That female advantage has dwindled in recent years. The Alcohol Ban in the infield at Pimlico last year may have unwittingly pushed more young men to consider a look at the Wine Festival.

The future of the Wine in the Woods seems to be bright. And next year, it's possible that the festival will not be dealing with going head-to-head with the Preakness. Can you imagine how big the festival will be then?

Memories of Grandma Walker

Last Sunday, my wife and I celebrated the sixth anniversary of our first date. In the six years we have been together, we have been blessed with marriage and a son named Joshua. Yesterday marked another six year anniversary, though it is somewhat more somber. On this day six years ago, I had my last conversation with my Grandma Walker.

Grandma Walker was the only one of my four grandparents that I had any sort of relationship with. This was because of three reasons. First, both of my grandfathers had either died before I was born or passed away when I was a toddler. I didn't have much of a relationship with Grandma Walton. Second, Grandma Walker and I shared the same birthday. I was the youngest of her five grandchildren. Third, while most of my friends spent their summer vacations in Panama City or Myrtle Beach, my family's vacations always ended up in Cincinnati to visit Grandma Walker. Sometimes we would see members of my dad's family up in Dayton.

Anyways, back to my Mother's Day conversation... It's a conversation I remember because I told her about meeting a special women who attended the same church as I did. She seemed really pleased to hear that I had met a young lady. Shortly after the Mother's Day conversation, my grandmother fractured her hip, and a rapid deterioration of health followed. Within two months, my grandmother passed away.

Sometimes, I wonder if my grandmother was waiting on me to find that special someone. I wanted for my grandmother to meet Liz so much. I wanted my grandmother to know everything turned out all right with that special young lady. I have a feeling she would have liked Liz.

I miss you Grandma Walker. Happy Mother's Day to all the Mom's out there.

The Death of Maryland Horse Racing

Now that the Kentucky Derby has been concluded, the eyes of the horse racing world turn to Baltimore and the Preakness. During the second week of May, the racetrack at Old Hilltop will take it's place in the limelight as the Kentucky Derby champion will try to duplicate the victory at Louisville on the tight turns at Pimlico. Politicians will take their turns at the microphone talking about how special the race and horse racing industry is to Maryland.

And then after the race... the horse industry will disappear for the next 51 weeks in the Old Line State.

It is a story that has repeated itself over the last 10+ years in Maryland. The same politicians who profess their undying loyalty to Maryland's horse industry will go back to berating the horse track owners almost immediately. But what many politicians fail to realize is that horse racing in Maryland is already dead. The horse industry has abandoned the state for greener pastures in West Virginia, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. Those that are left can't leave. And except for the day before and the day of the Preakness, average attendance at daily events in Pimlico are announced in the hundreds (more like single digits), not the high five and low six figure totals for the second jewel of the triple crown.

Pimlico is in pitiful shape as well. No other track in Maryland is equipped to handle Preakness crowds. Track owners haven't had any support from the state to help maintain the track. The grandstands are in such terrible shape (I speak from personal experience after injuring my knee on the grandstand steps back in 2003), the best thing that could happen to them are if they were demolished and rebuilt. The neighborhood that once was home to the elite now is run-down. The best that the owners could do every spring is re-paint, and add some pretty Black-Eyed Susans.

The current owners, MID (parent company of the former owners, Magna Entertainment), have pledged to keep the Preakness in Maryland. But I wonder how long they will keep that promise when the Maryland legislature starts criticizing their operations (which should start around the 2011 General Assembly session). When Magna was rudely greeted by the Maryland legislature in 2004 for their push to legalize slots in the hopes of saving Maryland Horse Racing, Washington Post's legendary horse racing columnist, Andrew Beyer, suggested Magna should threaten to move the Preakness to another Magna track like Santa Anita in California or Lone Star Park in Texas. I know the Dubai folks were looking to have the Kentucky Derby move to Dubai for one year when they had money. For the cost of one Kentucky Derby, they could have bought the Preakness forever.

Horse racing in neighboring Delaware and West Virginia is drawing horse racers to their states and now Pennsylvania is getting in on the act. The reason those states are doing better is simple: slot machines are already there to support horse racing. Maryland only recently passed slot machine legislation in 2008, but the way it was done was so messy and complicated that by the time Maryland's first slots parlor become operational, Delaware will have full gambling to help their horse racing industry (including sports booking). Also, it will only be a fraction of help to the horse racing industry, as slots will be used to fund education, unions, and the usual array of government interest groups as well. Maryland is also playing catch-up at a time when the economic situation is much worse than it was when the final push for slots began. The person most to blame for this is Maryland Speaker of the House, Michael Busch, who opposed slots and who wouldn't even bring a slots bill to the floor because he didn't want to potentially hand a victory to a political rival, former governor Bob Ehrlich. Even when a more favorable governor in Martin O'Malley came in, Busch couldn't bring himself to push the legislature to vote in favor of slots, so he allowed passage of a bill to make the voters do the dirty work and add it to the state constitution.

In addition to the political upheaval for slots, the Preakness Saturday rules make you wonder if they are trying to kill interest in horse racing. For many years, the Preakness has been divided into two areas: those watching the race in the grandstands and the infield. The infield is basically Baltimore's version of Blue Collar Spring Break. Up until recently, beer was allowed from outside in the infield as long as you could carry it in. And believe me, they could carry it in by the garbage can load. It set up a raucous situation where portajohn racing mixed with wild partying complete with young women going French Quarter and showing their goods for liquor and jewelry. Thanks to the infield parties, the Preakness attendance totals would go well over 100,000 for many years.

Then last year, the Preakness barred outside beer. The college kids revolted and the infield, though much tamer, was a shell of its former self. Even though the race tried to add more family-friendly activities, beach volleyball, and concerts which included ZZ-Top, the actual attendance fell by over 31% from 2008 to just under 78,000-its smallest crowd since 1983. Despite race officials spinning that the race was a success because betting had increased by $18 million (likely due to OTB and interest in Rachel Alexander), the loss of about $2 million of just gate revenue clearly hurt. So, this year in an attempt to bring the crowds up, the infield is instituting an all you drink beer promotion, cutting the price of admission, and bringing in acts like the Zac Brown Band. A new promotion, where they are encouraging the 20-somethings to "Get Their Preak On" is also occurring. The hopes of getting the attendance back over 90,000 is the goal. Of course, the all-you-can drink policy may have an ulterior motive: the city of Baltimore may use the mugs used in the promotion as a way to identify intoxicated people to pull over, check, and fine for public drunkeness to help their budget woes.

With MID pledging to keep to Preakness in Maryland, everyone feels good that the Preakness will remain a long time in Baltimore. People used to think that way about blue horseshoes. But if the Maryland legislature uses Maryland Horse Racing as its own personal piggybank and not support what's left of the horse industry, I'd be on the lookout (particularly on cold snowy winter nights) for any Mayflower trucks hanging around Old Hilltop.