Anyone who has followed the aftermath of the Bombings at the finish line of the Boston Marathon has heard that even though the suspects had lived in the US for several years, the family originally came from the Caucasus region in the southernmost part of Russia. That may explain why Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed a great desire to help the US in the investigation. The brothers are ethnic Chechens, though the elder brother was born in Kyrgyzstan in South Central Asia, while the younger brother was born in Dagestan province, near the Chechnya state. The region has been a dangerous place ever since the end of the former Soviet Union, as a large group of Muslim ethnicities that live in this area have tried to break away from Russia with sometimes violent means, while the Russian response has been equally as destructive. A map below shows the region.
Just looking at the neighborhood, one can see some huge issues. Armenia is the only Christian nation in the region south of the Caucasus Mountains, but it is landlocked and surrounded by 3 Muslim countries (Turkey-who committed genocide on Armenians in WWI, Iran-who is probably the 2nd most antagonistic state in the world right now after North Korea, and Azerbaijan-who isn’t exactly a stable state). Georgia also has a large Muslim group in their province, and they just lost a war to Russia over the South Ossentia and Abkhazia territories. As for the Russian provinces, Chechnya and Dagestan have caused a particularly huge amount of problems for Russia, with attacks over the last 20 years extending from Groznyy all the way up to Moscow itself. Bombings, hostage standoffs, and other attacks have killed hundreds of people. The Russian response has killed thousands and have left a ruthless strongman in charge of the Chechen state.
For further details, here is the breakdown of ethnic groups in the Caucasus:
As you can see, the neighborhood is eerily similar to the diversity found in the Balkans region just across the Black Sea from this area. It is a toxic brew that has flashed into violence on more than one occasion. Many Muslims from this region have fought in other conflicts in the neighboring Middle East areas, including Iraq and Afghanistan, so the temptation is to link the Muslims from this area with the Al-Qaida network. Though no official link has been made, that hasn’t stopped President Putin from asserting such a link exists. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. But, if a link is found, it may force the United States to confront another troubled region in the Middle East.
Ironically, this area is another region rich with oil with a large transnational oil contingent invested in the nearby Caspian Sea area, so Natural Resources will play a role in the decisions the US makes in this region. Until we can wean ourselves off of foreign oil, we will be pressured into sending forces into oil-rich regions to stabilize these areas. That increases the risks of terrorists targeting the US and their policies.
And there is another potential flashpoint. Next February, the eyes of the Sports World will focus on the Winter Olympics, which will take place in this region, in the Russian town of Sochi (you see it on the left side of the first map). A terrorist attack during the Olympics is highly possible, even with Russian troop presence. Considering the instability, you have to wonder why the IOC thought giving into Putin’s wishes was a good idea.
There are no easy answers. Evidence is not conclusive that the brothers had support from the region. But it cannot be ruled out. It may take another terrorist attack to determine whether the Boston Bombings were lone wolf operations or the start of a larger campaign against the US. The next move is up to the terrorists in the Caucasus. Will they not target the US for another attack? Or will they strike the US/International Community with even more deadly force? We shall see.
No comments:
Post a Comment