Less than a year ago, I predicted that Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez had less than a year to live, sorely based on his own words. And despite assurances from his advisors trying to maintain all is well, Chavez’s own words and, at the end of his life, his lack of words told the truth. Even though there were claims of a heart attack and that the US was involved, cancer ultimately claimed the life of the South American leader at the age of 58.
So now what? Well, let’s look at what I said about a year ago for a possible clue:
“He (Chavez) effectively owns every major company in the country, and whatever he doesn’t own, he uses his power to try and take it. Several once prosperous companies are now being run into the ground by Chavez allies, all in the name of allegedly helping the poor and spreading the revolution, but in reality, it is keeping those allies from turning on him. In short, he is Venezuela.
But what happens when you remove a leader like Chavez from the equation? To answer that, you don’t have to look very far into the past at a country once known as Yugoslavia. Josef Broz (better known as Tito) was the undisputed leader of Yugoslavia from 1948 until his death in 1980. He ruled with a iron fist, but his charisma managed to keep conflicting factions from wiping each other out by integration and intimidation. But upon his death, no one was able to match his leadership abilities, and within 10 years, the country began to split apart, factions began committing genocide, and once beautiful countries were reduced to ruin that have taken years to rebuild…
When a leader who consolidates all the power and resources to himself or herself over a period of time, their departure means their subordinates or others will fight over control of that power. Rarely does a successor have the iron will or charisma to keep the power to themselves, though the obvious counterexample is the former Soviet Union, where Josef Stalin was an even more larger than life figure than Lenin. It is unlikely, based on what we know about the situation in Venezuela, that there is a successor who can even match, much less be bigger than Hugo Chavez. That means trouble for Venezuela once Chavez has left the scene. And it’s not just Venezuela. What happens in Cuba, once old age finally claims the Castro brothers and their brothers in arms from the 1950s revolution?
Regardless of what you think of Chavez, the country is Venezuela is now tied to him. His imprint will long affect that country, even after he is gone. His untimely departure is not a scenario I look forward to, regardless of my opinion of Hugo.”
Chavez’s allies are trying to portray Hugo as an eternal entity. But Venezuela has real problems that not even Hugo could easily face. The currency is falling, basic food staples are in short supply, and crime is rampant across the country. The oil industry in Venezuela can only survive so long without the major capital investment improvements that companies like Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP, and others could provide. And if the TransCanada pipeline is approved, oil companies will likely favor a more friendly Canada for development as opposed to a hostile Venezuela. The oil productivity in Venezuela will continue to decline in years to come unless the nation gives oil companies a reason to invest. And without constantly flowing oil money, the situation in Venezuela will only get worse.
New President Maduro can only hold the people in check so long without descending into an unpopular dictatorship. And can all of Hugo’s former allies work together without Hugo’s charisma at work? History shows not likely.
I hate to say this, but Venezuela will have issues for years to come. And their allies in Cuba won’t live forever. It’s about to get really interesting for the bombastic anti-US leaders in Latin America… and not in a good way.
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