Recap of 4G World

For the last 5 years, I have had the honor of attending one of the most important conferences in the Wireless Communications Industry.  This conference has focused on the present and future of the Wireless Industry, presented by the Yankee Group of Boston.  In 2007 and 2008, the conference was known as WiMAX World, as the conference focused on the future of Computer communications.  WiMAX at that time appeared to have major backing among startups and some incumbants like Sprint.  In 2009, the Conference changed it’s name to 4G World, recognizing the importance of LTE and HSPA+ in the world of communications.  And since that time, the growth of LTE has made the most die-hard WiMAX providers plan to switch over to LTE.

At this year’s conference, WiMAX was not talked about much.  It is clear that LTE has won the ‘4G’ Wars.  The discussions rather focused on how to address the problem of capacity in networks.  It is clear that smartphones, led by the iPhone have been successful—too successful.  The fact that people are using their phones for more than just phone calls and texting has become apparent in the rise of mobile data being used for things such as Web browsing, Social Media, and Streaming video.  In fact, making a phone call on a mobile phone has become only the 4th most used application of a phone.

But this use of Mobile Data on Smartphones has led to a problem.  The networks are being strained.  Already, mobile data offloading to unsecure WiFi mesh networks are occurring in places such as New York and San Francisco.  And the problem is getting worse.  Within 2 years, it is expected that we will have the first smartphone meltdown.  This meltdown will make the Blackberry’s issues last month look like a Sunday picnic.

So, what are Mobile companies planning to do about it?  Aside from data throttling where they could restrict users to a hard cap of data usage, the options are few and not guaranteed to work.  The big idea involves creating heterogeneous networks (or HetNets), where a large macro-cell will be supplemented in its coverage areas by smaller metro-cell (including lightRadio Cubes in neighborhoods and femtocells in homes and businesses).  These smaller cells will increase the capacity of cell coverage areas, while not interfering with the larger macro-cell.  To ensure these smaller metro-cells are connected to the network, backhaul will need to be provided.  The backhaul will either be fiber or microwave in nature.

Obviously, unlimited data plans are also being scrapped.  Contrary to what Sprint says, they announced at the conference that they were eliminating unlimited mobile data in their dongels and hot spots.  They are trying to maintain unlimited data in their phones, but the writing is on the wall that unlimited data will soon end on their phones, particularly as the iPhone makes it’s appearance on the Sprint network.

Speaking of Sprint, in early October they announced that they were going to develop their LTE network at the expense of terminating their Nextel customers and ultimately ending their selling of WiMAX gear.  They also hinted they would end their relationship with Clearwire and be willing to let Clearwire go bankrupt.  At the conference, however, they suggested that they would maintain their relationship with Clearwire’s WiMAX network for as long as possible.  Very few people believed that statement, however, leading to speculation that Verizon or AT&T maybe interested in purchasing some of Clearwire’s valuable spectrum, openly in front of Sprint’s executives.

This conference was a great showcase of what is to come and the dangers that the wireless networks face.  The coming years will show how wireless companies can handle the oncoming Mobile data storm.