A new Super (Tornado) Outbreak

Over the last 48 hours, the Deep South has experienced an outbreak of tornadoes that have not been seen since the 1974 Super Outbreak.  As of this post, over 150 tornadoes have been reported since Wednesday, on top of another 100 tornadoes that occurred Monday and Tuesday.  The death toll from Wednesday’s tornadoes stand at 280+ with over 1100 injuries and destruction that is unprecedented across 5 states.  Towns and neighborhoods were just erased from the map.  The state of Alabama clearly took the worst of the storm.

Technology was supposed to prevent a replay of the 1974 Super Outbreak.  Back in 1974, there was no Doppler radar, no way of predicting tornadoes, and most weather forecasters had to depend on spotters on the ground to determine if tornadoes.  The 1974 Super Outbreak and its aftermath led to the creation of a Tornado rating system called the Fujita scale, which measured the destructive nature of tornadoes.  It also was the likely motivation for the creation of the Weather Channel.  One of Dr. Fujita’s grad students was Dr. Greg Forbes.  Over the years, warning times for tornadoes have dramatically improved.  Research that storm chasers have performed over the years have helped improve our knowledge of tornadoes.  With each smaller outbreak (North Carolina in 1984, Kansas in 1991, Oklahoma City in 1999, and others), our understanding has gotten better.

And yet, hundreds of people are dead from this outbreak.  Why?  Is it that people didn’t get the warnings?  Unlikely.  If you were paying attention to the Weather Channel, you knew the TOR:CON index indicated almost a guarantee of destructive weather in Alabama.  Were the tornadoes so destructive?  Possibly.  It’s clear the tornado that ripped through much of northern Alabama was an EF5.  What about the fact that the destruction occurred in densely populated areas?  Probably.  The areas where death occurred were heavily populated suburbs.  Would underground storm shelters have helped?  Perhaps, but the terrain was hilly and risk of radon is real.  Plus some areas are prone to flooding.

Whatever the reason, consider this:  imagine if we had 1974 weather technology in today’s world.  How many lives were saved because of modern technology, not just because of Doppler, TOR:CON, or BTI, but also multiple ways to get the weather message out to people (radio, TV, internet, mobile phones)?

We will learn from these tornadoes, just like we learned valuable lessons from past tornado outbreaks.  Perhaps more new houses will build with interior tornado-proof rooms.  Maybe evacuating areas where tornadoes are expected to hit will reduce fatalities.  Maybe another new way to protect people will be established.  Until then, when the skies threaten, we should always be aware and keep watch…