The realignment of the big college conferences

So the cannibalization of the Big 12 has begun with Nebraska and Colorado realigning to the Big 10 (or should we now call them the Big 12) and Pac-10 respectively.  The question is how will this all end and what will the Big conferences look like after the carnage.

Here’s one scenario on how this will all play out:  Let’s assume Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech all join the Pac-10 as well.  The 16th team to the Pac-10 would either be Utah or Texas A&M with Utah being the backup plan if A&M goes to the SEC.  Let’s also assume Missouri joins Nebraska in the Big Ten.  That leaves Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor for either the Mountain West or Conference USA to scoop up.

Let’s also assume that in addition to Nebraska and Missouri, the Big Ten also adds Notre Dame.  Then the question is whether the Big Ten would be happy with 14 or would like to expand to 16.  If they want 16, the guess is that they will further raid the Big East adding Syracuse and either Pittsburgh, Rutgers, or West Virginia.  That would then set in motion the beginning of the end of the Big East.

The ACC would not be free of pillaging either as the SEC will not stand idly by.  If the other conference go to 16 teams, the SEC will follow suit.  So who becomes the SEC’s next four?  Assuming A&M does NOT join the SEC, the selection is easy.  First, Florida State and Georgia Tech make the most geographical sense.  Also, Clemson makes some sense as well.  The final team comes down to either Miami or Louisville.  My guess is Louisville will be that final team, because the ACC will make sure Miami stays. 

The ACC will then pick apart the rest of the Big East adding South Florida, the two losers in the Big Ten Beauty contest of Pitt, West Virginia, and Rutgers, Connecticut, and Cincinnati to reach 14.  Throw in Georgetown and Villanova in Basketball and you now have 16 for Basketball.  The remaining Big East schools (which only play conference Basketball) would realign to the Atlantic 10, Horizon (Marquette), or Conference USA.

Whether this new group of super-conferences (ACC, SEC, Big 16, and Pac 16, plus a super-size Mountain West) will help or hurt NCAA Sports remain to be seen.  Still, what is going to happen in the next few years will prove interesting.