Why the 2010 midterm elections are important

I know this is going to sound like a political statement in favor of Republicans or Democrats, but it is not.  My goal in this posting of Rogue Corner is to explain why these mid-term elections are more critical than any other mid-term since 1990.  At stake is the potential configuration of state legislatures and U.S. Congressional Districts for the next 5 election cycles.  In addition, the usual nature of the U.S. Senate configuration will cause major headaches for both parties in the next three cycles.

As many of you know, every 10 years the U.S. is required by laws to take a census of U.S. citizens to determine the population and where funding should go.  In addition, the Census data is used in many instances to draw Legislative districts in State houses.  But the big key is that as part of the re-drawing of districts, U.S. House of Representatives districts are drawn, and the party that controls the state legislatures in many instances draws the districts in their party’s favor.  This is important in states which add or lose Representatives.  Districts could be drawn to force two congressman from the same party to battle for one spot.  Or new or existing districts could be gerrymandered to guarantee the congress people favors one party.  Don’t believe me?  Check out Maryland’s congressional map, particularly the 2nd and 3rd districts.

There is also Senate ramifications that could spell big trouble for the Democrats in 2012 and 2014 and a huge problem for the Republicans in 2016.  If the Republicans win 8 Senate seats from Democrat control in this cycle (and not NY and WV), the Democrats and their allies will be forced to defend 43 seats in the next 2 elections, compared with a mere 23 for Republicans.  But that also means the Republicans will be forced to defend 26 seats in a Presidential election in 2016, compared with just 8 Democrat seats.  Like I said, it’s headaches for both sides.

What I’m trying to say is no matter your political affiliation, please remember to vote, whether you have already early voted or will vote on Tuesday.  I have no compassion for those who complain about the elections, but refuse to exercise their Constitutional right to vote.

Why most Yankee fans are/should be Democrats…

Many people know Keith Olbermann as the unabashed and combative liberal host of MSNBC’s Countdown show weeknights at 8 pm/ET.  But what many people may or may not know is that Keith is also one of the New York Yankee’s most visible fans.  Seems like an oxymoron that Olbermann, a person who rails against the rich and says they should be taxed heavily would support the richest team in baseball.  I mean, why doesn’t Keith support the Kansas City Royals or San Diego Padres?  And yet, when you look at the Yankees, why wouldn’t Keith be a Yankee fan and a liberal Democrat.  After all, the Democrats have been good to the Yankees – or at least Democratic Presidents have.  Could the real reason that Keith Olbermann is a liberal Democrat have more to do with Keith’s love of the Yankees than his actual beliefs?  It sounds crazy, but when you look at the statistics, it’s not as crazy as you think.

In the 100+ years of World Series play, the Yankees are baseball’s most successful franchise.  They have won over a quarter of the World Series, and almost 40% of the American League Championships.  But, when you look closer, some interesting statistics related to politics show up:

--Since the World Series came into existence in 1903, there have been 57 World Series played under Republican presidents and 48 under Democratic chief executives.  The Yankee’s winning percentage under Republican presidents is just under 56%.  Under Democrats, their winning percentage goes up to over 58%.  The Yankees have made 23 World Series appearances under Democrats and 17 appearances under Republicans.

--In terms of championships, the Yankees have won 20 World Series under the Dems, but just 7 under the Reps.  Translated that means the Yankees have won over 40% of the titles Team Donkey has controlled the Presidency, but just about 12% of the titles when Team Elephant has ruled.

--The Yankees have won their last 7 World Series Appearances under a Democratic administration (last loss occurred in 1964), but even more interesting is they have won each of the last 4 years of Democratic rule (last 3 years Clinton was in charge and the first year under Obama).  New York has lost their last 5 World Series Appearances under a Republican administration (last title occurred in 1958).

In short, considering 2010 is a year that the Democrats control 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and that the Yankees are just 8 wins away from Title #28, are we about to see the same end result that we have the last four times this scenario has played out?  Don’t bet against it.

Having rights v. executing those rights

One of the most emotionally charged issues has finally reached the Supreme Court.  It is the case of Snyder v. Phelps, a case that has forced many to take uncomfortable positions.  And if you think you have figured out what side I’m taking in this fight… well, that’s why I call this blog “Rogue Corner”.

The case of Snyder v. Phelps concerns a protest by the Westboro Baptist Church against a Marine funeral in 2006 in Maryland.  The father of the fallen Marine (Al Snyder) heard about the protest, saw it on tape, then found that the members of the church had posted hate about his son and family on-line.  It was too much.  Snyder sued the church, won a multi-million dollar judgment, only to have the judgment overturned on appeal.  Now, the case has reached the highest court in the land.  At stake:  future definition of the 1st Amendment to the Constitution.

To be fair, I don’t have kind words to say about the Westboro Baptist Church.  This “church”, led by a former civil-rights attorney named Fred Phelps, is at least 2/3 related.  Even folks from Appalachia think this group is largely “in-breds”.  Over the years, they have shown up at funerals from Matthew Shephard to Mr. Rogers to soldiers who died in combat.  They’ve even shown up at Comic Con in San Diego recently.  They have single-handedly brought together political opposites from Keith Olbermann and Bill O’Reilly to Michael Moore and Fox News, who have all tried to use the media to shame this church into changing their tune.  In filing a friend of the Plaintiff’s brief, 48 states’ attorneys (Republicans and Democrats, conservatives and liberals alike) joined together to try and influence the Supreme Court to basically bankrupt this group of bigoted and hypocritical bullies.

So you would think the Supreme Court should vote 9-0 against Fred Phelps and his Jack-booted followers, right?  Not in my eyes.  And apparently not in the eyes of the ACLU, and many national newspapers, from the New York Times to the Wall Street Journal.  We all are arguing the same point:  their language is despicable, and it would be best if they would go away, but they have rights to speak whatever vile they wish.  And, if I am allowed to go further, Al Snyder did go looking for Westboro blogs about what they had to say about him and his family.  That was a mistake, and I think it’s this will ultimately cost Al Snyder at the Supreme Court.  (Side note:  me siding with the ACLU on a freedom of speech issue?  You’d think my name was John Parks Brown!)

Look, saying to someone “God hates you” or “God is angry with you” stings people (and nobody knows that better than me how it feels).  But at the same time, if we had a right to sue for people saying vile things about us, former President George W. Bush would supplant Carlos Slim as the richest man on earth.  It shouldn’t be a reason to start down a dark path where freedom of speech could be compromised.  We already had a stupid court decision in the last ten years with the Kelo case and eminent domain.  Ruling against Westboro would be a bigger mistake, and I think the court should rule in the Phelps favor, although they’ll probably hold their noses in doing so.  Remember, the Supreme Court has allowed Nazis to march through the Jewish Chicago suburb of Skokie, IL in the past.

That doesn’t mean we should tolerate this church in our communities.  The Comic Con folks had a great approach:  dish it back and mock these protesters.  Maybe one day this church will get the message:  just because you have the right to protest doesn’t mean you should execute that right often.